Afghanistan without Russia and Russia without Afghanistan is an incomplete equation.
Author: Razmenda, analyst of regional and Afghanistan issues, especially for "Sangar”
Russia has been on the wrong track for at least a decade. Afghanistan without Russia and Russia without Afghanistan is an incomplete equation. To say that Russia is wrong, this cannot be a superficial calculation. It has depth. It has a strategic logic and our past and present also show such a view.
Basically, Russia's strategic mistake in Afghanistan will be disastrous, because this country should act more maturely and considering the past. Choose its partners carefully. In a country like Afghanistan, where politics is strongly ethnic and ethno-politics is considered a prominent feature, the selection of Russia should be based on a precise selection strategy from among the Afghanistan’s tribes.
The goal is that Russia should not use the combination of ethnic groups in choosing its allies. This policy is not only ineffective and cannot provide the great interests of Russia and northern Afghanistan, but it will also cause a strategic mistake. I will explain this issue in detail in another article, because there is logic behind it.
But let's go back to the path that Russia has chosen. Right now, Russia is going down the wrong path. How about Because Russia is looking for partners who have already made commitment to Russia's rivals. This shows that Russia is conceptually confused in diagnosing the Afghanistan’s crisis. Or it does not take into account the nature of the existing crisis.
When we talk about the region, two key countries with high military, economic and political power come to our mind: Russia with its historical past, experience of being a superpower and extensive involvement in international system affairs, China, which is growing with considerable economic power. But today's Russia cannot be confident without choosing a reliable ally from the south. Russia should know that it has no allies in Afghanistan except the Tajiks.
Why do we admit that? Because, Pashtuns, according to a long historical tradition, are with England and in consultation with the US, Uzbeks and Turkmens are under the light of Turkey's pan-Turkism ideas, Hazaras affiliated with Iran's Shia geopolitics. All of them have chosen a place in the field of this competition. Only Tajiks can choose a powerful partner like Russia.
The Tajiks are the only reliable ally that can be a suitable choice for the Russians in the conflict-filled field of Afghanistan. The equation, conditions and rules of the game in Afghanistan have changed a lot and are experiencing a profound transformation. Especially in a situation where Afghanistan is caught in the clutches of Eastern terrorism with the support of the West, counting on other non-Tajik forces will face the great interests of the Russians with serious security threats.
Why, in the calculation, Russia is waiting to engage with the Taliban as a regional security disruptor is debatable. But what can be said for now is that anti-Russian forces will emerge from Afghanistan in the next five years. The amount of suicide training centers( madrassas) and terrorist cannibal factories in Afghanistan is shocking and scary. Do the Russians really want to deal with such potential dangers and security measures with the method of interaction and try to curb it?
Basically, we must understand that the region and especially the situation in Afghanistan is creating space for the new round of the Great Game. On the one hand, the strategic alliance between Russia, China and Iran has not been formed, and on the other hand, the fuel of the playground with the tools of terrorism embedded in Afghanistan provides the ground for an exhausting war for Russia. The strategy of the security trap with intelligence and proxy tools brings Russia's military and war doctrine to a standstill. A doctrine in which the Russians intend for Afghanistan to remain neutral and not be part of any of the security processes.
The Russians should not deal with the issue of Afghanistan superficially. This Russian strategy should be based on the hidden layers and depth of the Afghanistan’s crisis. If it doesn't do this, this country will face a dead end and will eventually clash with the Taliban. Because, basically the Taliban are a western product, not an eastern one. In terms of nature, the Taliban is in opposition to Russian thought and hegemony and has come to involve Russia in a dangerous war in its backyard. The Russians are finally forced to engage with the Taliban and there is no other way.
But what about the other members of the Asian allies like China? I believe that no country is more targeted than Russia. Finally, if there is a threat to China, this country will use Pakistan's tools and the ratio of its borders being small and impassable will be less exposed to threats. Iran will either agree with the West or collapse as a result of an internal development. So, the only competitor for the US is Russia, which should drown in the swamp of blood and sword in the region. Both blood and swords will be provided by extremism originating from suicide training centers in Afghanistan.
The Russians miss one opportunity after another. It is wrong to count on the forces and remnants of the NATO and the US made republic. These forces will soon turn their backs on Russia. Russia should focus on young Tajik forces and prepare itself for a dangerous war in the region. Contrary to popular belief, NATO and Europe will not be involved in war with Russia in the future. Although the issue of Ukraine is a problem, the main field is on the southern front (mostly Afghanistan’s geography) of Russia. The Russians should not be fooled and become busy in the fronts in which they win whether they like it or not. Time will prove this.
But for now, the focus should be on developing trusted allies internally, choosing a strategic direction, and choosing an ideology that can sustain Russia's new allies. Russia should also show a decisive performance against actions that disrupt security in Afghanistan.
What will be the role of China and Iran in the dangerous game? As we said, in the last analysis, China chooses an escape route. Either he will enter into a big deal with Pakistan through economic means, or he will preserve himself by burying the dragon's head in his cave. Iran will also find a way out of the current dilemma.
How to calculate Hindu Kush? In the calculations of the Hindu Kush, the pessimistic view among the Asian allies has made it impossible to form an alliance at all. Each of them proceeds with suspicion towards the development of the case. In this way, the game does not work.
The level of threats and the level of chaos in the region, especially in the west of Afghanistan bordering Iran, are high enough to facilitate the possibility of any incident such as the swamp of war with eastern terrorism. China and Russia have their own points of view and if, for example, the region is cleared of the United States, the next stage is the game between Russia and China.
Historical differences are re-emerging. It is for this reason that China maintains itself, because it has great power and is considered as a global pole. Realizing this, Iranians are trying to get along with the Arab world first and then with the US. But who are the Russians counting on? Above the former Western allies or the Taliban, this US infantry division in the region?
In short, everything moves in the field with calculation. Russians can make any choice. Either it should fight in Afghanistan and have a partner for this, or it will undergo a strange strategic surprise. As in the past, Russia should actively play a role in Afghanistan.
