Why is Zamir Kabulov an "enemy" of Persian speakers in a geographic area called Afghanistan?
Author: Fayaz Bahraman Najimi, International Analyst, Sangar Advisory Board Member
As a result of the failed diplomacy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia is losing in two areas of geography called Afghanistan: one against the United States of America, and the other is losing the hearts of non-Pashtuns, especially Persian speakers!
But, on the contrary, the United States of America in the geography called Afghanistan is more and more in control every day.
The United States of America is quietly returning to Afghanistan. Now, a year after leaving, they have de facto recognized the Taliban.
Printing money for the Taliban is a turning point in relations between Washington and the Taliban. A year of various financial and political pressure on the Taliban has had tangible results for the US. We are witnessing a rapid change in the course of events within the geography called Afghanistan to the desired point for Washington.
As I wrote earlier, the hasty withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan was a strategically planned program against China, half centered in Ukraine. This withdrawal has eliminated the vulnerability of the US and its allies in the geographic region called Afghanistan.
Since then, neither Russia nor its allies anywhere in the world have had leverage over the United States.
The Americans and the British, in a mixed (hybrid) and emotional (cognitive) war, encouraged the false exaltation of Russia and eventually threw it into the military trap and swamp of Ukraine. Now, how to get out of this swamp is unknown.
At the same time, Moscow was fascinated by the Taliban on the part of intellectuals, especially within the Russian diplomatic apparatus. Still, part of the former guards of Afghan specialists left over from Soviet times look at the Taliban as a representative of the Afghan/Pashtun people - in the Soviet Union, only the Afghan/Pashtuns were considered the ruling people. In contrast, others, especially Tajiks and Turks, were not valued at all because of their kinship with the peoples of Central Asia.
It should not be forgotten that the Afghan policy of the Russian Foreign Ministry has always been an explanation of the views of the old guard practiced by Zamir Kabulov in an abstract atmosphere and a denial of ethnic realities.
Abstraction in the style of Kafka
It can be seen that the Russian special representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, has a new abstract project called “Moscow format” in his hands. This plan seems to be about less Afghanistan and more about Greater Central Asia in a "New Great Game".
Before turning to this issue, I consider it necessary to mention the aggressive actions of the United States:
1 - Intervention and incitement of recent events in Iran,
2 - Creation of a crisis between Azerbaijan and Armenia,
3 - The plan to kill Imran Khan,
4 - And finally, preparations for the Doha meeting and the conclusion of new agreements up to the official recognition of the Taliban in exchange for creating an inclusive government and opening schools for girls.
As in the absence of the Democrats, the Americans wanted to impose an imported quasi-democratic system in Kabul for 20 years in order to deceive their internal public opinion. Now they want to replace the medieval Taliban regime not only for strategic purposes, but also to give it Western legitimacy in the absence of competent forces, half of which have been transferred to the West, and half have migrated to the countries of the region!
The tasks that the Americans set for the Taliban regime, in fact, come down to one goal - to create a reliable springboard for creating a crisis in the region.
***
Even the pro-Western Russian Foreign Ministry still does not understand this fact. On the contrary, despite the pressure of nationalist public opinion created by the current war with Ukraine, he is trying to play a multifaceted game without an antidote in Afghan politics.
On the one hand, he secured the sale of oil, gas, and wheat to the Taliban at a reasonable price, with the result that both Mullah Mottaki's brother and his family pocketed millions of dollars from the export of all three commodities to Pakistan, and on the other hand, by organizing a meeting called The "Moscow format" with the participation of the countries of Central Asia wants to throw dust on the eyes of the Kremlin leaders.
Kabulov practices politics in an Eastern context that is instinctive rather than strategic. For example, supporting the Tatars in geography called Afghanistan and the trip of Russian Tatars to Kabul and meeting with the Taliban reflect part of his emotionally linear relationship (it is said that Kabulov himself is a Tatar - Sangar). On the other hand, his instinctive thinking manifests itself in the new format of the meeting in Moscow, which lacks any innovative and strategic plans. His action can be regarded as a kind of creation of homemade homework, which is associated with Putin's trips to Central Asia - similar to the adaptation of the plan in Soviet times.
It is clear that neither he nor some of his colleagues in Central Asia and the countries around Afghanistan know anything about the content of Putin's trips. Therefore, his work will be nothing more than a bureaucratic action without executive content.
Did Moscow's past formats have any tangible achievements for Afghanistan, apart from rehabilitating the Taliban? Have non-Pashtuns and especially Persian speakers benefited from this? This is when the security of Russia and Central Asia depends on the support of the great ethnic groups of the Persian and Turkic peoples of the north of the geography called Afghanistan!
Now Kyrgyzstan is controlled by the United States of America. Also, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan are very willing to cooperate with the Americans, because Russia does not have a clear plan, except for threats, and Emamali Rahman openly told Putin that Russia does not have a plan.
The position of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan both in relations with the US and the Taliban was known from the past.
From this point of view, it is fundamentally important to what agenda and for what purpose Kabulov's team is preparing the upcoming meeting within Moscow. But it is clear that this will not be a short-term and long-term achievement for both Russia and the region.
As long as the pro-American team dominates the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Americans will slowly and creepily push Russia out of Central Asia.
The “conservative Eurasian anti-Western revolution” currently taking place in Russia could lead to serious changes in the country’s diplomatic sector.
Anatoly Antonov, the Russian ambassador to Washington, accused the Russian Foreign Ministry of unprecedented flattery and connivance with the United States of America.
It can be seen that criticism of the Russian Foreign Ministry has moved from the level of expert analysis to high-ranking diplomats.
Not so long ago, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin criticized the Defense Ministry for its incompetence in leading the war in Ukraine. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia have long been subjected to harsh criticism.
Russian public opinion is rapidly radicalizing, and pro-Western liberals are under intense pressure at all levels.
Poker game in Central Asia
Russia still does not have a clear strategy for a “New Great Game” across Eurasia.
For the first time, Vladimir Putin declared Russia not a Western country, but a Eurasian one.
This is a big twist, and the reality is that even Russian communism was not Marxist, but Eurasian.
The Eurasian issue opened the door to a new discourse, but I am sure that the inclusion of the Afghanistan issue in the framework of Central Asian diplomacy has nothing to do with the formation of the political ideology of Russia. There are large and very vulnerable cracks in Central Asia for Russia's future that show the country's inability in this vital region and its backyard of yesteryear.
The two main players, the United States of America and China, in addition to other players such as India, Iran, Turkey, the UK, Japan, and finally Pakistan, have invested heavily in the poker game in the region.
Zamir Kabulov and his team do not have the opportunity to deal with all these multifaceted objects, and one cannot expect a “miracle” from him - especially since he recently put all his eggs in the Taliban basket under the influence of Pashtun lobbyists in Russia and is actually a representative of Pashtuns and the Taliban in Russia's foreign policy.
I believe that the Russian president expects the Foreign Ministry to switch from passive to aggressive diplomacy and keep pace with events.
Regarding the geography called Afghanistan, if Kabulov is trying to whitewash the Taliban and in the article "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" he does not put them on a par with the terrorist group ISIS, on the contrary, Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, at a meeting of the Annual Secretaries of the Commonwealth Security Councils of the Independent States in Moscow clearly stated that the Taliban, like ISIS and al-Qaeda, was created by the Americans and "are still actively used to achieve geopolitical goals."
The ambiguity in statements by the Russian political elite on the issue of the Taliban is indicative of the lack of a clear strategy facing Russia.
Result:
Even if the United States Democratic Party loses the midterm elections, the helm of foreign policy will remain active in the hands of the Biden administration without the influence of Congress, and there is no doubt that there is a consensus among Democrats and Republicans on the issue of “Greater Central Asia” [including East China and Iran].
The possibility of a Taliban tsunami with the cooperation and support of the United States and Britain towards Central Asia is not far from a possibility.
Sooner or later, this region will become a new front for both Russia and China as a result of collusion between the Taliban, the UK, and the US.
