How is Afghanistan moving on to a new page of its tragedies?
By Abdul Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitics Researcher, specially for Sangar
All the actions of the hostile powers, especially the United States, the beginning of the Cold War, the intervention of the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the US support for the mujahideen groups against the Moscow-backed regime, the formation and establishment of the Taliban and its dozens of terrorist subsidiaries, the fall of the republic and the unwavering political, economic, military support for the Taliban regime fall under the theory of “creating, managing and spreading chaos” and beyond it, it is a strategy of destabilization in Asia.
Now the US cat-and-mouse game with the Taliban has taken a different turn due to the absurd scenario of the Hague Tribunal and the arrest warrant for the “late” Haibatullah Akhundzada. First, an autopsy of Haibatullah must be performed to prove whether this dead man, lying in a grave and covered in mud, is capable of leading the Taliban group and the Taliban emirate. However, experience shows that intelligence elements and tools, living or dead, are subjects of strategic plans for intelligence services.
Haibatullah was killed in a bomb blast in Pakistan in 2016. His chair with a framed photo is the ruler of an ignorant group that sits on the shoulders of the Afghan people. Now the Hague court has ordered the arrest and prosecution of Haibatullah, whom the Divine Court had long ago tried without intermediaries or witnesses. I intend to present to you, my readers, this issue and the developments in Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban in an analytical material.
Unexpected events have been happening in Afghanistan lately. The defiance of senior Taliban members criticizing the actions of the invisible and extraterrestrial Taliban leader, the military movements in the northern and northeastern provinces of Afghanistan, the evacuation and escape of Taliban officials from Kabul who also sent their families outside Afghanistan, the visits of foreign ministers of the regional countries, the clarification of the Iranian foreign minister on the special message of the Asian allies to the Taliban, the constant concerns of Russia and China over the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, Trump's efforts to gain 100% control over the Taliban, creating a platform for the passage of terrorist reserve forces in Pakistan and Syria ready for new operations in the north and northeast of Afghanistan, the cessation of US financial assistance to the Taliban, which apparently put the situation in a volatile state, show that Afghanistan remains in the spotlight of the hot security and intelligence games in the region and beyond and its importance has not diminished.
The main source of this process is the competition between great powers, one of which seeks to maintain the status quo, and the other to change its character. Afghanistan, which is on this battlefield and in the conditions of intra-regional and trans-regional competition, is a security object and has become an arena of rivalry between East and West. With the difference that this time the instruments of the game of fundamentalist, ethnic fanatical forces with pronounced Machiavellian thinking in the arena of the game include the rule of supporting proxy groups, both from the East and the West.
In this regard, I admit that Trump's rise to power is not a simple transformation. This transformation will have a profound impact on the world. More specifically, it is a purge of the Taliban power structure and new engineering solutions, and this poses a threat to the security of the region. The purpose of strengthening the Taliban was to create a crisis and escalate security threats, which was necessary in the conditions of competition between the West and the East for regulating the structure of the international system.
That is why we recognize that Afghanistan still holds its own in this bloody game. It is not marginalized and does not remain outside the sight of regional and supra-regional powers. According to the basic philosophy, Afghanistan's descent into violence and instability is calculated to use this ulcer to put pressure on rivals. At the same time, several other fronts, such as Afghanistan, need to be opened against China, Russia, and Iran to seriously undermine this Asia-centric struggle to change the nature of the American peace system. As a result, the world is plunging into unprecedented chaos. There is only one reason for this chaos, and that is that we are in a transitional phase. Everything needs to be rebuilt and redesigned anew in the structure and dynamics of security, politics, and power. Hence, we will witness a restructuring at three levels: the international, regional, and national systems.
Meanwhile, we are in a very disadvantageous position. Because the Taliban plays with different types. The Taliban is perhaps the only proxy force that has found a better chance of survival at this stage of transition and struggle between the powers. But sometimes the rules of the game and the conflicting interests of the powers influencing the situation in Afghanistan require serious changes in the structure and quality of proxy forces such as the Taliban.
It is for this reason that recent events in Afghanistan, the cessation of US aid to Afghanistan during the Taliban's rule, the arrest warrant for the non-existent Heibatullah, pressure on the group, the position of Pakistan and the region, the increased competition between the region and the trans-region have confused the analysis of events. For example, there is information that the Taliban families who were brought to Panjshir and Andarab and lived there were transferred to the southern provinces. All military structures that were deployed in the north to ensure the war in Panjshir and Andarab have been moved back to the south. Perhaps events will now occur that will force the Taliban to do this.
On the other hand, in a symbolic protest movement, a group of disgruntled mullahs criticizes the policy of monopoly on power in Kandahar, and this topic becomes the headline of the media. Is it possible that such a maneuver could be carried out spontaneously under such circumstances?
Meanwhile, Pakistan plays a reasonable and active role assigned to it by Britain and the United States. But it will have to confront the Asian axis. Either choose a region and stop playing bloody games in Afghanistan and the region, or continue such a game outside the region. The field data shows that the same problem of growing security threats to Pakistan is the result of regional pressures that have prevented Pakistan from playing a more important role. However, now that the trans-regional approach to Afghanistan under the Taliban is changing, Pakistan will play a more serious role.
The US efforts to recapture Afghanistan and establish intelligence stations and residencies for more effective confrontation with Asian allies, India's cooperation in this direction, the intervention and active participation of Arab countries and Turkey in this project, Pakistan's active participation in this program can only indicate a new phase of rivalry between the East and the West in Afghanistan. In addition, the intensification of intelligence activities between the Taliban, the Arabs, and the US, the various trips of Haqqani, and Wasiq to countries under the control of the sheikhs, the formation of the circles of Yaqoob, Haqqani, and Stanikzai are not an ordinary event. Behind these movements is an attempt to change the leadership of the Taliban and continue the quiet theater of violence and cruelty.
At the same time, creating a rift among the Taliban to create a security crisis and turn it into a security black hole, deepening geopolitical rivalry in the region with the outside world, and trying to gain access to Central Asian resources are other sides of the game that the West and the US, under Trump, are playing on the advice of the UK and its allies. If this plan does not work as a “plan B,” continuing the game will be dangerous.
The alternative to the Taliban will be even uglier and more ruthless than itself. In other words, the failure of the plan would mean the beginning of a terrible civil war that would lead to bloodshed in Afghanistan. There is no doubt that ISIS will be the next option for the Taliban in Afghanistan. It can be accepted as an indisputable principle that the Taliban cannot make decisions on their own. What is put on the line becomes so. The Taliban’s homework is given to them by their patrons to act accordingly. If the game is not according to the rules, the dice are changed. There are still many forces that can be more effective than the Taliban.
Both the West and the East are trying to take advantage of Afghanistan's destructive opportunity to win or lose in future competition. It is called a game of cat and mouse because everything, from enmity to friendship, is based on a trick. Nothing is reliable, and everything revolves around the colonial and imperialist interests of the great powers.
