Many countries in the region do not know exactly what to do with Afghanistan. Russia is no exception.
Author: Rustam Rushangar
Putin's remarks about Afghanistan at a meeting of the Russian Security Council on April 29 were unprecedented. Suddenly, Putin is pushing the issue of Afghanistan to the top of the agenda of the Security Council and urging the defense minister to take Afghanistan seriously. Meanwhile, Russia is in the midst of a conflict with Ukraine.
The recent instability in Afghanistan is likely to worry Russia beyond the spread of ISIS. Russia worries that the Taliban will lose control of the situation and those Western countries behind ISIS could pose a threat to it from Afghanistan.
This concern is not unfounded. The Taliban are unable to contain organized attacks carried out on behalf of ISIS. There are big plans behind these attacks. The Taliban leaders do not even know how many of their commanders and members are in ISIS. There is even a possibility that the white flag will turn black.
The fact that Russia has received Taliban diplomats* means that Moscow is trying to maintain relative stability in Afghanistan by encouraging the Taliban to fight ISIS, but is not very sure that this policy will work. It can be said that many countries in the region do not know exactly what to do with Afghanistan. Russia is no exception. We saw that the Iranians, while sending troops to the Afghan border, also announced the reception of Taliban diplomats. This means that in any situation you need to be ready before the situation is clarified. This means confusion!
Some believe that Russia is supporting the Taliban because China has invested in the Taliban and maintains good relations with them. That is, Moscow coordinates its policy towards the Taliban with China, because Russia needs China in the war in Ukraine.
The reasons for China's support for the Taliban are also economic. Beijing has invested heavily in Pakistan and won large contracts for several mining projects in Afghanistan, and is waiting for peace in that country to realize its economic projects. Of course, China counted on the Taliban as a stabilizing force, which also has an influence in this calculation on Pakistan's consultations, but in general, this calculation is wrong.
The Taliban are actually a factor of instability, not a factor of stability. If China thinks that the Taliban are putting things in order by suppressing the opposition in Afghanistan, then they are deeply mistaken. The Talib is unable to suppress their opponents, even if they have the support of all the great powers of the world. Because the Taliban opposition is not a small political and military group. All Afghans oppose the Taliban.
The relative calm during the few months of Taliban rule is neither a sign of popular satisfaction with them nor a result of the Taliban's ability to contain instability. This calm is the result of shock, surprise, confusion, and panic, and every day it turns into instability.
* The organization is under UN sanctions or banned due to terrorist activities.
