Why should Ukraine learn from Afghanistan?
Author: Ahmad Saidi, political analyst
The main American figures then and now are the same. In 2014, the U.S. administration's focal point in Ukraine was Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland, who is now Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs. In 2014, Nuland worked closely with Joe Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who was an adviser to Vice President Biden in 2014.
The US faces two complex political realities in Ukraine. First, Ukraine is ethnically and politically deeply divided between anti-Russian nationalists in western Ukraine and ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Second, NATO expansion in Ukraine crosses Russia's red line. Russia will fight to the end and, if necessary, make serious threats to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO with the help of the United States.
The United States has repeatedly stressed that NATO is a defense alliance. However, in 1999, NATO bombed Serbia, Russia's partner for 78 days, to tear off Kosovo. After that, the US built a large military base in Kosovo. Similarly, in 2011, NATO forces toppled Russian partner Muammar Gaddafi and unleashed a decade of chaos in Libya. Russia will never accept NATO in Ukraine.
At the end of 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin put forward three demands on the United States: 1) Ukraine must remain neutral and not join NATO, and 3) Crimea must remain part of Russia, 3) Donbas must become independent in accordance with the Minsk agreements.
Eight years after Russia backed the Yanukovych regime, the Biden-Sullivan-Nuland team came to power in Washington, rejected Putin's offer to negotiate, and eventually, Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
In March 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seemed to understand Ukraine's plight as a victim of a proxy war between the United States and Russia. He publicly declared that Ukraine would become a neutral country and demanded security guarantees. He also publicly stated that Crimea and Donbas need special treatment.
Naftali Bennett, then Prime Minister of Israel, participated in the campaign as an intermediary with Turkey. Russia and Ukraine came close to an agreement. However, in that process, as Bennett recently described, the United States is "blocking" the peace process. Since then, the war has escalated. According to American investigative journalist Seymour Hirsch, American agents blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September. The United States and its allies recently pledged to send tanks, missiles, and possibly fighter jets to Ukraine.
The basis of the world is clear. Ukraine will be a neutral country, not a member of NATO. Crimea will remain, as it has been since 1783, the place of deployment of the ships of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. A practical solution will be found for Donbas, such as a territorial division, autonomy, or a border line. Most importantly, the war will stop, Russian troops will withdraw from Ukraine, and Ukraine's sovereignty will be guaranteed by the UN Security Council and other countries.
The Ukrainian government and people will tell Russia and the United States that Ukraine will no longer be a proxy war zone. Faced with deep internal divisions, Ukrainians on both sides of the ethnic divide will seek peace rather than trust an outside force to force them to compromise.
Otherwise, Ukraine will disappear from the world map or turn into a "European Afghanistan" - a battlefield of powers - and plunge into a pit of poverty and devastation for many years to come.
