Confronting the Pashtun movement does not bode well for the Pakistani government.
Author: Ahmad Saeedi, Afghanistan and regional analyst (Switzerland), especially for Sangar
Since the Pakistani government banned the Pashtun Tahaffuz Tehreek (Pashtun Tahafuz Movement), or Pashtun rights movement, several people interested in the movement have been asking me, Mr. Saeedi, why you have not written anything about it and why you are still silent.
I would like to share my opinion оut of respect for my friends.
In my opinion, the fate of the Pashtun rights movement in Pakistan depends on several factors, including the reaction of the Pakistani government, popular support, and regional and international developments.
This movement, mainly led by the Pashtun Tehreek-e-Tahfuz (PTM), seeks to improve the human rights situation and seek justice for the Pashtuns of Pakistan. They focus especially on security issues, military operations, and violations of civil and political rights in Pashtun-populated areas.
Some key factors that could determine the fate of this movement are:
1 - The response of the Pakistani government. The government can change the course of the movement by using repressive methods or by negotiating with the PTM leaders. So far, the government's response has been mainly to suppress and arrest the leaders of this movement, but if the government pays attention to the demands of the PTM and implements reforms, tensions may decrease.
Confrontation with this movement does not have good consequences for the Pakistani government. I think that instead of benefiting the government, it will harm the government.
2 - Popular support. The more this movement gains wider support among the Pashtuns and other ethnic groups in Pakistan, the more likely it is to achieve success. Raising public awareness of the PTM's demands can increase their bargaining power.
3 - Role of the military and security organizations. The Pakistani army plays an important role in the Pashtun-populated areas and its security policies have a major impact on the fate of this movement. The movement can succeed if positive changes are made in the military and security policies.
4 - International developments. International pressure from human rights organizations and foreign countries can also play an important role in changing the Pakistani government's policies towards the Pashtuns. If the international community pays more attention to human rights violations in the Pashtun areas, the likelihood of change will increase.
5 - Linkage to broader regional issues. The situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan's relations with that country can also affect the Pashtun movement. Since the Pashtuns live on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, stability in Afghanistan can have a direct impact on this movement.
Overall, this movement's fate depends on the interplay of internal and external factors, and the outcome of its actions will depend on government policies, the strength of the movement, and regional developments.
