The only way to protect Tajiks from their enemies is an independent Tajik state with a strong government, combined with Tajik identity.
By Abdool Naser Noorzad, a security and geopolitical researcher, specially for “Sangar”
Federalism is a political formula for distributing power and creating a peaceful atmosphere. Provided that the necessary foundation is laid. Several Tajiks raise the issue of federalism as a salvation and solution to Afghanistan’s problems based on the incitement of non-Tajiks against the Pashtuns.
Federalism is a political structure, but we are discussing an independent geography of Tajiks that can guarantee the political strength of this great nation. The difference is that we want an independent geography, a strong state, and a country separate from others. But these Tajiks are caught in the whirlpool of conspiracy and do not know what will happen to Tajiks behind the issue of federalism.
They do not know that federalism in no way means the end of corruption, injustice, and poverty. They do not know that non-Tajiks, including Hazaras and Uzbeks, are trying to use the power of Tajiks to raise the issue of federalism and then take over the geography of Tajiks.
These Tajik federalists, before raising the issue of federalism, should learn and think sensibly that we do not need federalism to ensure justice, especially for Tajiks. Our main need is to fight to conquer our geography and protect it from the evils of Pan-Turkism, Pashtunism, and the destructive actions of Hazaras under the banner of the Democratic Republic of Hazaristan, which is planned to be built on the territory of Tajiks in the future.
At this point, our task is to create a platform. What is needed here is the necessary political basis to pave the way out of the current impasse. A radical platform that raises the issue of Tajik identity and power in an independent geography, with an independent state and its Tajik identity. We have already mentioned that behind the issue of federalism, there is a conspiracy that non-Tajiks and their Pashtun allies want to implement with the power and strength of Tajiks.
On what basis do we raise this question? Based on the available evidence, historical evidence, and experience, it can be concluded that Tajiks have no friends in this area if they do not understand each other and do not constitute a political bloc, and it is impossible to imagine an alliance with non-Tajiks in the future.
In any case, the main goal of non-Tajiks of any nationality is to use the capabilities of Tajiks to promote, develop, and implement the federalism plan. But in the final stage, it is the Tajiks who will lose their geography. The northern, north-eastern, central, and western regions are, as a rule, the geography of Tajiks, which are the ones that non-Tajiks focus their attention on the most. The Hazaras and Uzbeks, within the framework of the pan-Turkism program for Persian-speaking regions, are trying to gain political, military, and economic advantages over strategic regions. The areas that are predominantly populated by Tajiks and considered their historical homeland and fatherland.
But the Tajiks imagine that they can gain power through a federal plan. No, it is not. On the contrary, by federalizing Afghanistan, which is unlikely, you will give more land to others. Why do we resort to this logic? The problem of Afghanistan is essentially a problem of political power that has become more widespread according to ethnic and tribal desires and aspirations, and not a problem of building political power, for which federalism can be the solution. The federalist plan will not only lead to us giving away our lands to others, but also to being oppressed from all sides.
Remember, federalism means a plan to incorporate the Tajiks into the tribal belt of the Hazaras, Uzbeks, Turkmens, and Pashtuns. We must choose one of the two remaining paths, one of which is to become a state and the other is to propose a federal plan to end the current cycle of injustice. Because of the project of the nation-building, the people have been mentally and intellectually failed, and the main culprit is the Taliban. Now, any changes after the departure of the Taliban will threaten the geographical well-being of Afghanistan, and this is inevitable.
A federal plan or any other option, except the formation of an independent Tajik state, geographically separated from non-Tajiks, would not be a reasonable solution to resolve the current ethnic conflicts.
If the country is federalized and if this federalization plan is accompanied by the consent of other ethnic groups, then the first action of the Hazaras and Uzbeks will be to seize Balkh as a strategic stronghold of great importance to the Tajiks. If the country becomes federal, then the day after the country becomes federal, no one will give the Tajiks any rights because of internal mistrust, disunity, regionalism, and fragmentation of the population. Now we are seeing the publication of Hazara dictionaries in which the Hazaras lay claim to the Persian language and do not take the Tajiks into account. Imagine that when there are no obstacles like the Pashtuns and the Taliban to hinder the Hazaras and Uzbeks, the Tajiks will be crushed between two millstones.
Tajiks should wake up and understand that the pan-Turkic plan and the planned alliance between the Hazaras and Uzbeks are essentially aimed at removing the Tajiks from the center of future political power games. Why do the Hazaras themselves not raise the issue of federalization? Why are we, Tajiks, always the objects of the Hazara and Uzbek propaganda programs? Federalism is not a priority in the current situation. Rather, our priority in the current situation is war and political efforts to form an independent territory with a Tajik majority.
On the other hand, another serious problem is that neither the Taliban is a political force capable of proposing a federal plan, nor are their opponents a suitable and powerful alternative that could become opponents and rivals of the Taliban in the future. It is on this basis that we prioritize the logic of war and struggle. In the political discourse of post-Taliban Afghanistan and in the modern era, there has never been and will never be room for mutual understanding, negotiations, and dialogue. First, one must fight for a goal, and then, based on this and taking into account the current conditions, think about a plan to create an independent Tajik state.
Meanwhile, in essence, no Afghan plan that emerges from the thinking of political forces in Afghanistan has external legitimacy, while any regional and sub-regional plan with its alien characteristics and features will have an imposed aspect of the situation in Afghanistan. So, what can these political forces and groups in exile do, who are struggling to prevent their historical and political collapse? This is the main part of the responsibilities and homework of these groups. We need to understand a little more deeply the conditions of this way of thinking, and to what extent can people and those around them accept it? Either they will don the nationalist mantle again and become part of the vicious circle of history, waiting for a new turn of events, which will then lead to historical destruction and erosion of their national identity, or they will be determined to continue to determine their destiny. Federalism is not and cannot be a third way!
Another problem is that they never take into account the objective realities of the country's geography. They ignore the region and still hope for the American project. A strategic mistake and an unforgivable political mistake that has been repeated many times. Meanwhile, if we consider the issue of geography, the understanding of the Hazara and Uzbek people in posing the question of federalism is that after its possible implementation, they will receive the Tajik lands. In that case, Tajik geography would not exist. Remember, if we considered the Hazara and Uzbek languages as better than Pashtun, then we made a mistake. All three are ardent enemies of the Tajiks and have no other intention than to destroy the spirit of the Tajik people.
Another reason why we oppose the federal plan is that the issue of federalism is essentially being implemented under the shadow of the central power based on a political agreement and decision with the local governments. Now that federalism has been implemented, who will have the central power? If the decision is taken by the majority, then the Tajiks are alone in this matter. The Hazaras, Uzbeks, and Pashtuns are in the same row in their utilitarian ideas. We will lost the central power again. If the Pashtuns come, the problem of ethnic intolerance will be institutionalized in the political structure of power. If the Hazaras come, they will determine their geography and enter into a strategic alliance with the Uzbeks.
There is no place for Tajiks in the space of federalism. The only important issue for Tajiks, allowing them to successfully overcome the current impasse and ensure their political power, is an independent Tajik state, an independent geography based on the Tajik nation and origin. There is no other way. If this is not so, then what will our demagogic opponents, dogmatic federalists who have relied on the crude convictions of the union with the Hazaras and Uzbeks, and gullible Tajiks suffering from the chronic childhood disease of the union in the form of a Persian-speaking region, do with this dangerous and destructive plan of the Tajiks, the Hazaras and Uzbeks?
We have other reasons that confirm the correctness of the path we have chosen. For example, why do we always base the logic of denying federalism on the issue of the lack of a necessary political platform for its implementation? We do not consider the conditions for the introduction of a federal system in Afghanistan favorable. There are still some deficiencies in the structure of Afghan society that reject any reasonable, submissive, and compromise logic in the matter of federalism. These conditions are as follows:
- No sovereign nation state: There is no nation, and the state will not be created based on it;
- No unified national feeling and spirit of separatism: Neither the Hazaras, nor the Uzbeks, nor the Pashtuns, nor others believe in a unified national feeling; rather, the spirit of separatism is institutionalized in each of these ethnic groups. So, how can federalism be adapted and lead us to political stability and ensure social justice?
- Maintaining political independence and non-interference from neighbors: For none of the Hazaras, Uzbeks, or other ethnic groups, the issue of political independence with the Pashtuns or Tajiks in political power has much meaning or significance. Meanwhile, interference from neighbors, countries in the region, and countries outside it is considered one of the factors of instability, unrest, and conflicts in the country. Therefore, the federalism plan in the air is like writing on ice, which we will later leave in the sun;
- Ability to finance the military expenditure of the federal bureaucracy: Today's Afghanistan is a country economically dependent on external resources, unable to produce economically to meet its own needs, having a consumer economy, and no concrete economic vision for the self-sufficiency of the country, and this historical tradition continues to this day. How do we want to implement a federal system in such a dependent, poor country that does not have the economic capacity to finance the bureaucratic system of a federal structure?
- Raising the political awareness of the masses: How do the Congress party, the federalists, the Hazara and Uzbek ethnic groups, and the mega-project of Pan-Turkism hope to implement federalism if they have done little to raise the political awareness of the masses? Let these federalists note what educational efforts they have taken so far to explain the concept of federalism to the masses of people to raise and increase political awareness;
- Lack of balanced economic growth across the country: Northern and Southern regions, and Western and Eastern regions have sharp differences in terms of underground resources, transit location, economic income growth, and agricultural base. How can these federalist friends want to implement a federal system in such a situation? Differences in income levels and gross national income among residents of four geographic regions have been documented: North, South, East, and West.
- Presence of powerful political parties and enlightened and useful civil institutions: including the National Congress Party that chants the slogan of federalism, which assembly, organization, current or movement has laid the foundation for federalism, beyond its empty slogan, and is considered an objective alternative to the centralized system? No powerful political party with a close and lasting connection with the people, no educational institution, except Western and American practitioners, no civil activist (activist in the specific American sense in the context of Afghanistan) has been able to do any useful work in promoting, explaining and properly explaining the federal system in Afghanistan. But how will such inefficiency, intellectual helplessness, authoritarian dogmatism, and federal narcissism create the basis for a federal system in Afghanistan?
- Presence of a credible political culture: Political culture is defined as the knowledge of citizens about government and politics, as well as the political system as a whole. In Afghanistan, under the ethnic hegemony of the Pashtuns and ethnic tensions between the Hazaras, Uzbeks and Tajiks, no political culture has developed, and the Hazaras and Uzbeks' view of the rise of these two ethnic groups to political power has always been subversive rather than joining the political system within the dominant political culture. Tajiks have always reacted with indifference to this structural destruction by the Hazaras and Uzbeks. Thus, there is no political culture in the political space of Afghanistan, and this in itself may become a reason for rejecting federalism, which is a political and anti-Tajik conspiracy in every sense of the word.
But what to do?
To get out of the current impasse, neither federalism, nor nationalism, nor an alliance with the Hazaras and Uzbeks within the dangerous theory of a Persian-speaking region, but rather several issues can pave the way:
- A decisive war with regional support. It is necessary to occupy a part of the geography and then enter the field with such plans. Because it is impossible to enter into a dialogue with the Taliban, and they understand only the language of weapons. The Hindu Kush axis, the spirit of the people, and their unwillingness to join a single nation create a favorable environment for this. At this stage, a decision will be made on the future of the political structure in the geography of the Tajiks;
- The presence of a strong government that provides discipline to ensure justice and the rule of law, including the transition period. Once stability is achieved and the war is over, it will be possible to think about creating a single political structure in the geography of the Tajiks. Our political plan is an independent geography for the Tajiks with an independent Tajik state and a special identity.
- Such a plan requires regional approval. The biggest mistake of the politicians of Afghanistan in the last twenty years was to bet on the trans-region and underestimate the region. The cauldron of authoritarianism is boiling all over Afghanistan. Democracy, federal systems, and adaptation of Western forms of political systems have no chance of success either in terms of application or in terms of substance. The only possible option that can protect Tajiks from harm from their enemies is the issue of an independent Tajik state with a strong government, combined with Tajik identity. Let us not deceive ourselves anymore!
