What Does the Trump Cabinet Mean for the Taliban and the Resistance Front?
Author: Muhammad Djorkashani, Jumhur News Agency.
Donald Trump has placed several extremist elements at the helm of the US security and policy bodies. White House National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Heggetts, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and the rest of the new but radical figures have one thing in common: they are staunch enemies of the Taliban. Each of them has worked and spoken out against the group in one way or another. Of course, they are also staunch enemies of Iran.
Some of them, like Waltz and Heggetts, fought against the Taliban in Afghanistan. The alleged CIA chief wants to reclaim his base in Bagram, Marco Rubio wants to include the Taliban on the terrorist list; And Trump's Secretary of Defense, who fought against the Taliban, thinks it is foolish to expect changes from the Taliban.
Some domestic analysts say that the new American Trump team supports the resistance fronts against the Taliban and probably uses them to attack and damage the Taliban government. They refer to their joint photos with them. Some people also believe that the US will drive out the Taliban just like they brought them back!
Some also say that the US is destroying the Taliban's governance system and will hold parliamentary elections and human rights. Their optimism is so high that they believe that the US, by creating a multifaceted state system, will even gather the technocrats from Europe and the US back to Kabul.
We forgot that it was the Republican Trump administration that recognized the Taliban by opening an office in Doha and rewarded them with a large reward. He was so friendly with the Taliban that he even sent his Foreign Minister Pompeo to Doha to meet with the Taliban. He mentioned Abdul (Mullah Baradar) many times with excitement, who said to him: “Your Excellency!” It was Trump who appointed Khalilzad as a special representative to overthrow the Ghani Republic and take over the Taliban Emirate. A man with such a past cannot be an enemy of the Taliban or again send B52s into the air to overthrow them and start a new war.
In principle, Trump is against war, and today's America is not the ambitious America it used to be, which attacks a country with dozens of fighter jets, ships, commandos, and special forces to overthrow a government. Especially in Taliban Afghanistan! Now it is stuck in Lebanon, Gaza, and Ukraine and is afraid of Iranian missiles.
Trump is looking for a deal. This is his most obvious feature; It is evident from his words. He says: I want to negotiate with Iran, he says the war in Lebanon and Gaza must end before I arrive, he says if I were president, there would be no war in Ukraine, the events of October 7 and the murders and...
Although he sometimes boasts, he is also afraid. As you can see from his words, his policy is an economic blockade and embargo. Of course, not like before, which, according to his own interpretation, harms America itself and devalues the dollar, but now it helps strengthen BRICS and...; Most likely, the sanctions desired by Trump can be limited only to Tehran and Kabul.
The war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East have distracted attention from Afghanistan and the Taliban. They have distributed America's expenses in those places. But the Democrats did not ignore the minimum game in Afghanistan. They laid the cornerstone of change in Afghanistan. This cornerstone is a treasure for Trump and his Republican ministers. The US, despairing of Mullah Haibatullah and his entourage, took Sirajuddin Haqqani, Mullah Yaqub, Mullah Wasiq, and Mullah Baradar by the hand and embraced them. They took Sirajuddin to Dubai and Saudi Arabia and met him. America even provided Sirajuddin with one of its most famous media outlets and made a dedicated documentary about him.
Trump, who will settle in the White House, will respond to Abdul's words "Your Excellency." He is in no hurry to strike the Taliban. His policy is to put pressure on the Taliban, not to wage a military campaign against them. This pressure will necessarily be economic and political. The slightest economic pressure will destroy the foundation of the Taliban economy: it will reduce the value of the Afghan currency, empty the Taliban treasury, suspend the salaries and privileges of tens of thousands of armed Taliban, and paralyze important ministries and departments in Kandahar. The Taliban cannot compensate for the cost of the Afghan currency and dependent economy with the support of the countries that compete with the United States. China is a selfish and not serious country. Its peak contribution does not even reach one million dollars. Russia has officially refused to provide financial assistance to the Taliban and may, in extreme cases, give them some weapons. Iran has lost confidence in the Americanized Taliban, but it will not let them go. As a result, the Taliban will have little choice in front of Trump's America. If they resist, they will fall, and if they surrender, they will be destroyed. They must make a deal with Trump's America, and in this deal, they hand over the reins of power to Trump.
What kind of deal could this be? What is Trump's ceiling on the Taliban? What does the Taliban demand from him?
Trump is not looking for democracy in Afghanistan. Trump is not looking to revive the parliament in Kabul. Trump is not looking for general elections. Because there is no guarantee that American proxies will come out of the ballot box. Therefore, Trump will most likely hand over the internal administration of Afghanistan to the traditional and tribal system of Afghanistan. Templates like custom-made loya jirgas and identification of mullahs, khans, influential people, etc.
Trump and Khalilzad have previously stated that they are in favor of an indigenous political system in Afghanistan. This means that the Taliban will survive by moderating some extreme measures, such as lifting the ban on girls' education and women's employment and forming a cabinet with several non-Taliban figures alongside the Taliban. This is enough for Trump to launch a major campaign claiming a political victory in Afghanistan and get the desired fruits from these meaningless minimal changes. This will lead to deployment in the airfields of Bagram, Shurabak, and Kandahar, the revival of the intelligence circle in Afghanistan, and surveillance of China, Iran, and Russia.
This, along with the actions that accompany it, can make Trump and the Taliban happy together. Money must still flow into Kabul, minimal projects must continue, institutions and NGOs must be revived, the Taliban must be recognized, and the Taliban must be allowed to promote their political-religious ideology unhindered. The curriculum and content of the Taliban's books do not matter to the US.
(The joy and congratulations of immature leaders of NRF on Trump's victory will not do them any good. Trump's team may ultimately use the NRF as a tool to pressure the Taliban and then discard it.)
In the meantime, of course, the Taliban are forced to either accommodate Haibatullah and his team or hand over their locations to John Ratcliffe so he can fly a Global Hook RQ4 and deal with Haibatullah and his followers.
I believe Trump has neither the desire nor the ability to change the Taliban. Trump has no interest in fighting the Taliban and does not see the need to do so. Trump has already received the necessary message from the Taliban - during their talks in Doha and after taking power.
The Taliban in Doha have made it clear to the US: we will give you what Ashraf Ghani and Karzai can give. The Taliban in Kabul also have a clear message to the US: we have no enmity with you; Come back to Afghanistan and recognize us.
