Are the Haqqanis on the Verge of Breaking Away from the Taliban?
Source: News Agency “Sadoi Afghoniston” - Islamabad
Internal divisions within the Taliban, rumors of Sirajuddin Haqqani’s resignation, and the serious challenges facing the Islamic Emirate as the Taliban tries to project unity under its rule point to a deepening internal divide. Analysts believe that the Taliban are facing a serious internal crisis amid rising tensions among Taliban leaders and speculation over the group’s future. In a new interview, Michael Semple, former EU Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan, also spoke about the movements of the Haqqani Network and the faction’s efforts to challenge the leadership of Haibatullah Akhundzada.
The Taliban, which seized power in Afghanistan after two decades of armed conflict, has always tried to present itself as a united and cohesive movement. However, recent developments show that deep tensions are brewing within the group. The unconfirmed news of the sudden resignation of Sirajuddin Haqqani, the interior minister and one of the influential leaders of the Haqqani Network, has raised concerns about an internal crisis. The event is not just a change in leadership but reflects widespread disagreements in the Islamic Emirate and the Taliban’s methods of governance.
Haqqani’s resignation: an earthquake in the Taliban structure
According to multiple news agencies and reliable sources, Sirajuddin Haqqani, who for many years was a key figure in the Taliban movement and the leader of the guerrilla wars against American forces and the former Afghan government, has now stepped down from his post. He is not just an ordinary minister, but also the leader of the Haqqani Network, one of the Taliban’s most powerful military and security forces. His resignation indicates that the divisions within the Taliban have reached a point where even the most senior figures in the group are no longer willing to cooperate. Although the Taliban continues to deny the news, there is no doubt that there are serious differences between the Haqqani Network and the Taliban leader.
Haqqani wielded great influence within the Taliban, particularly in eastern Afghanistan and among the Ghilzai tribes. Many of his loyal fighters consider themselves subordinates to Haqqani rather than to Taliban leader Haibatullah Akhundzada. Therefore, his resignation could cause a rift within the Taliban and even pave the way for new insurrections.
The aftermath of the disputes: Is the Islamic Emirate on the brink of crisis?
Haqqani's resignation is not just a change in leadership, it could be the starting point of a deeper crisis within the Taliban. Including;
1 - Weakening internal Taliban solidarity: The Taliban has always emphasized "unity and obedience" as one of its core principles. However, Haqqani's departure shows that this unity is fading. If these divisions persist, we are likely to see further dissension within the Taliban.
2 - Increasing ethnic and regional divisions: Many Taliban commanders are Pashtuns, but there is also competition within the group between different branches of Pashtuns. The Haqqani faction is closer to the eastern tribes of Afghanistan, while Haibatullah Akhundzada and the Kandahar Taliban are aligned with the country's southern Pashtuns. These differences could lead to intra-group conflicts.
3 - Security concerns: The Haqqani Network has been and remains one of the most powerful militant groups in the Taliban. If divisions deepen, some of the network's commanders and fighters may refuse to obey Amirulmuminin and even join rival factions!
Interview with Michael Semple, a Western analyst, on the movements of the Haqqani Network and the future of the Taliban
Amid reports of Sirajuddin Haqqani's resignation and internal divisions within the Taliban, Michael Semple, a former EU Deputy Special Representative in Afghanistan and a leading analyst on the country, confirmed that the Haqqani Network is holding extensive consultations with its commanders across Afghanistan.
In a recent interview, he claimed that Haqqani representatives are trying to persuade the network's commanders to "stand up" to the leadership of Heibatullah Akhundzada. This means that the Haqqani faction is not only unhappy with recent events, but is organizing its forces to counter the policies of the Taliban's central leadership. However, Semple stresses that given the complex political and security situation in Afghanistan, it is difficult to predict a direct conflict between the Haqqani faction and Haibatullah. Citing his 30 years of experience analyzing the Taliban, he noted that the group has never been so deeply divided.
Implications of Semple’s Statements and the Possibility of Deepening Dissension within the Taliban
Analysis of Semple’s words shows that the Taliban is currently going through one of its most difficult and critical periods. Although a direct conflict between the various factions is not yet certain, the Haqqani Network’s recent actions and its attempts to attract support from local commanders indicate a serious possibility of deepening divisions.
This trend could push the Taliban towards civil war. A war that would not only weaken the group’s power but could also open the way for infiltration by foreign actors and rival groups. In such circumstances, the future of the Islamic emirate is more uncertain than ever.
Are the Taliban Heading for Split?
The history of jihadist groups has shown that internal differences often lead to splits and bloody conflicts. A prime example of this is the split between al-Qaeda and ISIS, which eventually led to a bitter rivalry between the two groups. Now the question arises: is the Taliban heading down the same path?
Some analysts believe that the Taliban could split into several factions, each pursuing its policies. One faction could remain loyal to Akhundzada's extremist policies, while another would adopt a more flexible approach.
The Roots of Discord: Why Were the Haqqanis Left Behind?
The rift between Sirajuddin Haqqani, the leader of the network, and Akhundzada, the overall leader of the Taliban, did not occur overnight. Reports indicate that the two prominent Taliban figures have long been at odds with each other on several key issues:
Intra-Taliban Politics: One of the significant points of contention was Akhundzada’s harsh policies on women’s rights and social restrictions. The Haqqani faction, while not entirely opposed to these laws, believed that these restrictions would increase international pressure and severely isolate the Taliban.
Approach to the International Community: Haqqani believes in closer engagement with foreign countries and gaining international legitimacy. In contrast, Akhundzada and his circle view any engagement with the West as a threat to the Taliban’s ideology.
Concentration of Power in Kandahar: Since returning to power, the Taliban leader has increasingly concentrated power in Kandahar and made important decisions without consulting other Taliban factions. This situation has angered many local commanders, especially the Haqqani network, which is based in eastern Afghanistan.
Fatal Days for the Taliban Emirate
At a time when Afghanistan is facing an economic crisis, international sanctions, and internal instability, internal divisions within the Taliban could lead the country into further unrest. If the Taliban fails to cope with this crisis, we may see internal conflicts and even a sudden or gradual collapse of the Taliban system in the future.
Haibatullah Akhundzada now faces a serious test: Will he be able to control internal divisions and maintain the Taliban's unity? Or will these cracks undermine the future of his emirate? The answers to these questions will become clear in the coming months.
