Russia is essentially preparing to recognize the American Taliban.
Author: Andrey Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghanistan Politics (Russia)
While I was on a week-long business trip in Tehran, an important event for Afghan and regional politics happened.
The leader of the Haqqani terrorist network, and, concurrently, the head of the Taliban Interior Ministry, Sirajuddin Haqqani, paid his first official foreign visit to the UAE. There he, among other things, met with US representatives. Most likely, a rendezvous with the Americans was the main goal of his voyage.
There is no information yet on what exactly Haqqani and the American emissaries agreed on. But knowing the acumen of people from Washington and Haqqani’s openness to lucrative offers, there is little doubt that the contact in the UAE will continue and, quite likely, will very soon end with a deal between the head of the Taliban Ministry of Internal Affairs and the US CIA.
Previously, American representatives successfully built mutually beneficial relations with Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqub (with the active mediation of Qatar).
Thus, today the United States has confident contacts with the leaders of the key power bloc of the Taliban, who not only control the main Taliban armed groups in Afghanistan but also have ambitions for the post of Emir of the Taliban. It may be the latter that will become the basis of the deal between Haqqani and Yaqub with American partners, who are also interested in removing Emir Haibatullah Akhundzada and replacing him with Mullah Yaqub (and now, possibly, and/or Sirajuddin Haqqani).
The successful completion of Haqqani's deal with the Americans will become the starting point for the coup project within the Taliban supported by the United States.
The funniest thing about this situation is that, simultaneously with the energetic efforts of the Americans to conclude backroom deals with the leaders of the Taliban power bloc and prepare a coup in the Taliban, Russia suddenly intensified gestures of friendship towards the Taliban in general, without prioritizing any faction within it. This is very strange since the Taliban is an umbrella structure that unites a variety of (unequal) groups and factions of Afghan jihadists.
Judging by who comes to meetings in Moscow, Kazan, and St. Petersburg from the Taliban, the Russian side does not have stable ties with the leaders of the Taliban power bloc. Those who come to the Russian Federation are not exactly political sixes, but, let’s say, they are far from top characters in the Taliban hierarchy. Unlike those who fly to meet with Americans.
This means that if the plans of the Americans and their partners in the Taliban power bloc are successful, Russia risks recognizing the Taliban, which will already be completely controlled by Washington. Which, of course, the American side will welcome in every possible way.
And it’s not that the six, who have so far traveled to Kazan, Moscow, and St. Petersburg, will simply be cut off from the political board.
It’s hard to believe that the high-ranking officials in the Russian Foreign Ministry and intelligence services who are urging Vladimir Putin to recognize the Taliban are not calculating such a scenario. Perhaps then this is a joint behind-the-scenes game between the Russians and Americans in Afghanistan and the region. Perhaps Moscow is hoping to outplay the Americans by having hidden trump cards up its sleeve.
True, it is not very clear what these trump cards are.
Certainly not the “escorts” from the Taliban delegation at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum.
Let's wait and see.
