Whenever Khalilzad’s sinister steps reach Kabul, one should not have good hopes.
By Nurullah Valizoda, analyst, especially for Sangar
Khalilzad was the main architect of the Taliban project when he was a consultant for Unical assessing the risks of Turkmen gas pipeline to India and Pakistan.
Khalilzad proposed arming a group of Pakistani madrassa students and using them as bulldozers to suppress rival jihadist groups, pave the way for gas transportation, and install a controlled group of mercenaries in power in Kabul.
Ahmad Shah Massoud's resistance prevented Khalilzad's project from being fully implemented. The Taliban had to be removed from power to prevent them from extending their role beyond that of the bulldozer's role.
It was decided to replace the Taliban in turbans with Taliban in ties. Karzai, Ghani, Atmar, Jalali, Faruq Wardak, Abdurahim Wardak, etc. came on the scene, who were democrats on the outside but Taliban on the inside.
Khalilzad's mission from 2001 to 2021 was to weaken the resistance movement and strengthen and revitalize the Taliban. In this regard, Khalilzad succeeded. The political illiteracy and lack of commitment to the people of Massoud's heirs contributed to Khalilzad's success.
Khalilzad's second mission was to whitewash and domesticate the Taliban, which he does not seem to have succeeded in doing. The Taliban has returned to its original state. Khalilzad's recommendations were not taken seriously because the White House leadership team did not take Khalilzad seriously.
Khalilzad is now under pressure from the White House to explain why he hid information about the Taliban and misled White House officials. He was given another chance to see and settle accounts with his stepchildren in Kabul.
Now Khalilzad has gone to Kabul to urge the Taliban to take Trump seriously and earn his approval. Khalilzad teaches the Taliban the methods of the deal and the tricks of the new game and gives his warning. He tells them what the consequences will be if they do not make the deal.
I think the Taliban are ready to deal with the US, but they are worried about the reaction of the countries in the region and their internal divisions. If the US wants to take under control the base, the Taliban will face the response of China, Russia, and Iran. The Biden government has given the Taliban charity over the past three and a half years but has not demanded anything from the group. Trump wants to cut a deal with the group, putting the Taliban at the same crossroads that has brought down every Afghan government over the past 50 years. The fact that the Taliban has remained on the scene for the past three and a half years, claiming to milk both the East and the West, does not mean that the group is good at multilateral games. This is a result of the global situation and the international isolation of Afghanistan. However, the situation is changing.
Trump, despite his tough talk and actions, is going to a deal with the Taliban and hopes that the Taliban is ready for it. The first deal was the release of one Taliban drug dealer in exchange for three Americans. Khalilzad came to arrange a second deal.
The Taliban is also currently under pressure from Pakistan. Khalilzad has always tried to save the Taliban from dependence on Pakistan and to become a protective shield for the Taliban against Pakistan. One of the messages of Khalilzad's visit is addressed to Pakistan, which wants to tell this country that the Taliban are not alone and it is not worth raising your voice too much at them.
However, if Khalilzad’s visit is not simply an ultimatum and the beginning of another process of reconstruction and modernization of the Taliban, his presence in Kabul will cause alarm in Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow.
In the internal relations of the Taliban, Khalilzad has expressed a willingness to work with Haqqani. However, the Haqqani position is currently weak, and their first coup attempt against Haibatullah was thwarted with the help of the countries of the region. Perhaps Khalilzad went to Kabul to see what is happening there and how he could create a new balance of power.
In short, whenever Khalilzad’s sinister steps reach Kabul, one should not have good hopes.
