Washington is rushing to create a new inclusive government in Kabul
Author: Andrey Serenko, Nezavisimaya Gazeta staff correspondent
The United States is preparing a new move in the Afghan political game. According to sources in various groups of the Afghan political emigration, by the end of summer, it is possible to hold a "big conference" in Washington with the participation of some leaders of the Taliban and the most influential representatives of the anti-Taliban resistance. The purpose of the forum should be to reconcile the warring political groups with the prospect of creating a new inclusive government in Afghanistan.
The fact that Washington was preparing an important meeting with the leaders of the anti-Taliban resistance first became known in early June. According to sources, hints at the planned inter-Afghan forum in the US capital were heard during a meeting of the US President's Special Representative for Afghanistan Tom West with representatives of the Afghan Supreme Resistance Council (ASRC) in Ankara. During this meeting, which took place at the very end of May, the American diplomat voiced several important theses.
First, according to Tom West, the United States gave the Taliban administration in Kabul time to prove itself, to show its ability to lead Afghanistan. However, the Taliban did not use this chance, demonstrating a negative result. The Taliban administration in its current form is not capable of solving the problems of managing and developing the country, providing security guarantees for the region and the world.
Secondly, the American diplomat made it clear to representatives of the Afghan anti-Taliban resistance that so far the United States has limited itself to humanitarian intervention in the affairs of Taliban Afghanistan, focusing on providing prompt humanitarian assistance to the population of this unfortunate country. Now America intends to change its strategy and is ready to play a more active not only humanitarian but also a political role in Afghanistan.
Third, according to sources, Tom West stressed the US's unwillingness to take part in the armed confrontation between the Taliban and the opposition in Afghanistan. The American diplomat made it clear that Washington is certainly disappointed with the inefficiency and weakness of the Taliban government, but does not believe that the armed overthrow of this government will lead to positive changes in Afghanistan.
“As a result of communication with the West, the Afghan participants in the conversation got the impression that the United States is interested in opposition forces exerting various pressures on the Taliban, pushing them to change and make concessions ahead of the intra-Afghan meeting in Washington,” the sources say.
In addition to Ankara, Tom West met with representatives of the Afghan public and opposition forces in the UAE. Sources familiar with the subject of the Dubai consultations said that as a result of these and a number of other meetings of American emissaries with Afghan politicians, "candidates will be selected for a trip to Washington, where a major conference on the Afghan settlement is to be held soon." According to the sources, "Tom West did not directly say that the Taliban might take part in the Washington meeting, but the general context of the American diplomat's speeches made it highly likely that such a possibility could be expected."
It can be assumed that the meeting of Afghan (Taliban and opposition) representatives in Washington, which is being prepared by the American side, will be timed to coincide with the first anniversary of the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan and the seizure of power in this country by the Taliban (August 15). And the point here is not only in the energy of political symbolism.
As practice shows, the majority of American foreign policy gestures are quite tightly tied to the schedule of US domestic political events. Already in November, by-elections to the United States Senate will be held, in which the party of President Joseph Biden risks getting far from the most impressive result. One of the major claims of American public opinion against the current president's administration is the failure of the US Afghan project, which resulted in the coming to power in Kabul of a terrorist group pursuing a policy of aggressive discrimination against women and various minorities. Obviously, during the upcoming election campaign, not only many voters, but also competitors from the Republican camp will not fail to remind the Democrats of the Afghan failure of the Biden team.
In this regard, the rapid political success in the Afghan sector is of paramount importance for the democratic administration of the White House. Obviously, with this task in mind, Tom West's "shuttle diplomacy" began to operate, and the activity of other American representatives in the Afghan direction also intensified. The actual dismantling of the “one-party” Taliban dictatorship and its replacement with an inclusive government that reflects the interests of all ethnic and religious groups of Afghan society, as well as ensuring the rights of Afghan women, is something that can be successfully “sold” to the American media and voters on the eve of the Senate elections USA. The only thing left to do is to seat the Taliban and their opponents at the same table in Washington and convince them to make a political deal for a common inclusive government.
If the forthcoming Washington conference succeeds, the Joseph Biden administration will not only receive important pre-election trump cards. A real compromise between the Taliban and their opponents from various Afghan resistance groups, reached in the American capital, will again turn the US into the main operator of the "big game" in Afghanistan, which, of course, will not please Russia, China and other participants in the regional political process, who, in the 10 months that have passed since the withdrawal of the US Army from Afghanistan, have not been able to propose an effective regional project for an Afghan settlement.
SANGAR: The question remains: will Russia and China allow this, "hunting" for the slightest sign of the US presence in Asia and tightening their belts in order to completely oust them from the continent? Apparently, the reaction of Moscow and Beijing will be to "work" with the Taliban and resistance forces so that they do not come to the meeting in Washington at all. The reason is clear: the countries of the region will solve their problems themselves, without outside participation. The United States, in turn, "decided" in 20 years and the result is obvious. It seems, from their point of view, the US has no place in the Afghan issue. But, apparently, Washington doesn't think so...
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