In the absence of anti-Taliban resistance fronts, the Islamic State group has become the only opponent of the Taliban in Afghanistan and in the near future will become the No. 1 threat to the security of the region and the world.
Author: Farid Ahmad, editor-in-chief of “Sangar”
World media, especially Russian, have questioned a leaked report by Taliban officials pointing to the possibility of infiltration of 7,000 ISIS fighters from Pakistan into northern Afghanistan, the borders of Central Asia, calling it an attempt to gain support from anti-ISIS countries.
These media claims are true to some extent, but the news is unlikely to be fake. In the report of Mawlawi Muhammad Asif Zakir, сommander of the 2nd border brigade of the 203rd Mansouri corps of the Ministry of Defense of the Taliban, entitled "Information and intelligence order of the commander of the second border brigade to all border commanders", there are two notable points:
1) Near the Afghan-Pakistani border in the forest villages of Kukokhel, Gundgari, Bajar, and the Mirshalu valley of the Tirarishgal district (Pakistani province of Khaibar Pakhtunwa) there are training centers for three militant groups. Two of them are commandos with black and red flags, and the third is ISIS with a black flag led by Muslim Kutwal.
2) The number of these three groups is seven thousand people who intend to enter and deploy in Afghanistan in groups and individually in the districts of Azra (Lugar province), Zazai Aryub (Paktia), Spina Shuka (Nangarhar), as well as through the Alishing district (Laghman) to move to the northern provinces.
The number of fighters, the names of places, and other details can be questioned, but not the presence of these forces at all. It is especially interesting that two of their groups have "black and red flags". The dark red flag was the commando force flag of the previous Afghan government.
The named areas and provinces are traditional ISIS bases in Afghanistan and terrorist organizations use exactly the same routes to travel between Afghanistan and Pakistan, especially the Alishing area in Laghman province, which borders the east-central provinces of Kapisa, Parwan, and Nuristan.
If we say that this message and the exaggeration of the forces of ISIS has an external purpose and the Taliban’s mention of the “northern provinces”, first of all, concerns Russia and Iran, we will not be mistaken, but basically, this information is just the tip of the iceberg.
According to reliable information obtained from Taliban intelligence, about 300 ISIS fighters have already been transferred to the Surubi district of Kabul province, including 30 of them, armed with weapons and suicide belts, have entered the city of Kabul. On Friday, January 20, Department 091 of the Taliban special services during an operation in Darai Uzbin, Surubi district, arrested two ISIS fighters who transferred the amount of 300,000 Saudi rials to one of the leaders of the group. On Thursday, January 19, in the Chaharasiyab district of Kabul province, employees of department 091 detained some Janat Shah, the son of Hakim Shah, a resident of Paktia province, in whose "ranger" 6 Kalashnikov assault rifles were found and, during the preliminary investigation, he admitted that he is a member of ISIS.
Sources do not exclude that these detentions are related to the information that we mentioned above.
"DANGEROUS TWINS"
Until now, this opinion has become popular in Afghanistan and the region that the Taliban and ISIS are two names of the same organization, two sides of the same coin, only they have different flags - one is white, the other is black - and ISIS is the winning card of the Taliban propaganda, thanks to which he presents himself as a "victim of terrorism" in order to gain international recognition.
This perception is not wrong. What has been recorded in the track record of ISIS in Afghanistan so far, including terrorist attacks on Shiite mosques and Sufi monasteries, foreign facilities (Russian embassy, Chinese guest house in Kabul), killings of members of the Taliban, etc. ., everything was for the benefit and benefit of the Taliban, which is still officially considered a terrorist organization in most countries of the world.
But it cannot be hidden that ISIS and the Taliban are doing the same thing: shrinking, blowing up, cutting heads, etc. There is not a single crime committed by ISIS that was not committed by the Taliban. They have the same handwriting, the same method, and even the same face.
From the point of view of faith, although the Taliban position themselves as “Hanafis” and ISIS as “Salafis”, in practice the crimes they commit, primarily executions and beheadings of people without trial or investigation, which Hanafi fiqh rejects, are inherent only to Salafis, like ISIS.
The fight against ISIS is the main area of cooperation between Russia and Iran with the Taliban. Even during the republic, these two countries did not deny this and categorically stated that their cooperation was only to fight ISIS. The Taliban came to power, but ISIS also remained, and cooperation between Moscow and Tehran with the Taliban continues. Apparently, because of ISIS, Russia and Iran also refrain from supporting the anti-Taliban resistance. The lack of this support led to the fact that after a year and a half of Taliban rule, the position of ISIS strengthened, and the activity of the resistance fronts, primarily the National Resistance Front led by Ahmad Massoud, worsened.
The growing dynamics of ISIS activity can be judged both by the number and quality of its attacks: just over 30 attacks in the first half of the year and almost 50 attacks in the second half of 2022. According to the terrorist group itself, 181 attacks were carried out this year, as a result of which 1,188 people were killed and injured.
And for the NRFA, this year was the most difficult in its history: the front lost about 300 capable and warlike fighters and had to temporarily stop operations in its territories, primarily in the Hindu Kush.
ISIS, which was suppressed by the government of Afghanistan and the United States during the republic, was the very anti-American ISIS created by Pakistan. Pakistan used the ISIS alliance with the Taliban against the US and NATO. In the final, Islamabad handed over power to the Taliban, while ISIS remained in the “reserve”.
Today the situation is completely changing. There are several reasons to say that the managers of the Afghan war now want to bring the real ISIS and probably an anti-Taliban force like the Taliban onto the scene. For this reason, the fears of the Taliban are not unfounded.
UNRELIABLE ALLY
Pakistani Intelligence (ISI) is well-versed in creating destructive Islamic terrorist groups, especially from the remnants of old and new jihadists. In pursuit of "strategic depth", he once created detachments of the Mujahideen, then set the Taliban on them, the same Mujahideen, only with a different name, and now he is directing ISIS, some kind of Mujahideen-Taliban mixture against the Taliban. In a word, he will easily replace someone who does not live up to his expectations.
And how can you justify the creation of a real ISIS, similar to the Middle East?
FIRST, the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban have drawn closer to India, Pakistan's main strategic rival. India has increased its embassy staff in Kabul to around 200 in recent months to strengthen anti-Pakistani activities, according to credible sources.
India's policy in Afghanistan is always to cooperate with any government present in Kabul. The Taliban in the first round (1996-2001) were completely under the control of Pakistan and the United States, for this reason, Delhi supported the Ahmad Shah Massoud Resistance Front.
In the second round (from August 2022 to now), the Taliban, especially the Kandaharis, who have had close relations with Delhi since the days of British India, allied with India and provided the Tehriki Taliban Pakistan (TTP) with asylum in Kandahar, Helmand, and Kabul. Islamabad has asked the Afghan Taliban several times not to support them, but the rise of the TTP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and other parts of Pakistan shows that the Taliban are beating the drum of enmity with their creator. Apparently, Ahmad Shah Massoud's prediction that Pakistan will one day burn in a fire that he lit himself is coming true.
The TPP, as the #1 security threat to Pakistan, is being effectively equipped and reinforced by India through Afghanistan. Islamabad is forced to create its own antidote for this poison.
It appears that Islamabad wants to use both ISIS and resistance forces against the Taliban. If Mavlavi Zakir's report is correct, then one group with a "dark red" flag will soon appear. It is possible that these are the same Republic-era commandos who fled to Pakistan, Europe, and the United States.
The National Resistance Front led by Ahmad Massoud and other fronts, according to scattered information, refused to cooperate in this regard because of their historical enmity with Pakistan. It turns out that ISIS will be the only option against the Taliban.
SECOND: The US is probably also interested in the emergence of a real ISIS. In Pakistan, after the pro-Chinese-Russian government of Imranhan, a pro-Western government came to power. Pakistan is the child of British colonialism, which has now been replaced by the US. Nobody kills their child. The fall of Pakistan equals the fall of Israel. And come to the end of the US in Asia, at least in South and Central Asia.
Suppose the TTP is in the service of India, China, and Russia, its task is to overthrow the pro-American government of Shahbaz Sharif, and bring Imranakhan or another like him to power (Pakistan's economic and social situation is also unimaginably tense, and Imran Khan is also present on the scene). This is because Pakistan is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but a pro-American Pakistan can spoil the plans of this organization led by Russia and China. This situation makes the issue of preserving "one's own Pakistan" vital both for the US and the West and for the SCO. And the real ISIS should serve precisely this plan - and the replacement of the Taliban and the containment of the SCO.
On the other hand, we should not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear power. If nuclear weapons fall into the hands of the Taliban or ISIS, one can imagine the magnitude of the consequences of this danger. This was one of the main goals of the US entry into Afghanistan in 2001. Russia and China also do not want terrorist organizations to have nuclear weapons.
THIRD: There is another reason that reinforces the assumption about the emergence of a real ISIS - the Taliban themselves. They agreed with the US in Doha that they would not act against the interests of the US and its allies, and the secret deal allegedly stipulated that when the US withdrew, the Taliban would point their weapons at Central Asia. Perhaps it was about opening a "southern" front against Russia. Perhaps it was about opening a "southern" front against Russia. But this did not happen, on the contrary, the fire spread to the south, towards Pakistan, the US strategic partner, and ally.
Apparently, this is the secret of Russia and China kissing the Taliban. But the Taliban also wasn't born yesterday. To please the US and Pakistan, they keep other terrorist organizations under their control on the borders of Central Asia. According to the latest information received, 300 Pakistanis from the terrorist organizations Sipah Sahaba and Lashkar Jangawi were transferred to the north a few days ago.
TOWARDS NEXT SPRING
In short, the ISIS proxy group has become the only force present on the Afghan scene against another proxy group, the Taliban, and will become the No. 1 threat to the security of the region and the world in the near future if the anti-ISIS countries sit idly by. The countries of Central Asia, as well as Russia, China, and Iran, should reconsider their relationship with the Taliban, who are flirting both with them and with the US and Pakistan, and meanwhile are doing everything to put ISIS on the rails. On the other hand, the implementation of a plan to replace them with ISIS or any other force whose mission will not be limited to Afghanistan is obvious. If the anti-Taliban fronts are not strengthened, primarily the National Resistance Front, which truly represents the interests of the people of Afghanistan, their people's bases (Tajiks and Uzbeks of the Afghan north) will be in the service of ISIS. This may happen next spring when at last the people will be disappointed in the anti-Taliban resistance.
In the year and a half of their rule, Afghanistan has turned into a terrorist state, where terrorists freely kill and rape people, smuggle weapons and drugs, and even "export" violence and terrorism to the region and the world (rocket attacks on the borders of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, attacks on Iranian and Pakistani border posts, plans for terrorist attacks by ISIS in Iran and Turkey...). Their achievement is discontent, mistrust, and destabilization in society. Afghanistan has become a real paradise for terrorists and a hell for its inhabitants.
The Taliban did not live up to the expectations of their patrons, not to mention the Afghan people, their neighbors, and the world community. They are not ready to sit down at the negotiating table with their opposition, share power and live in peace and harmony with their neighbors and the world. They want to be accepted for who they are - enemies of civilization and global security! Therefore, it seems that everyone is thinking about a new profitable alternative. Someone thinks about ISIS and someone about a new anti-Taliban alliance.
In a word, new surprises of the Afghan "Great Game" are yet to come...
