The future of US security cooperation with its allies, with this country at its core, remains uncertain.
By Abdool Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitical Researcher, especially for Sangar
The United States is reportedly negotiating the withdrawal of troops from Romania, Poland, the Baltic States, and Eastern Europe in general. Trump's verbal attacks on the Europeans so far, the Europeans' confused reaction to the formation of a "European NATO" and a security system separate from the United States, the new signal of the need to create an international security landscape with a unilateral approach and the path to developing a security system based on specific American interests, reinforce these security assumptions.
This raises many questions: What are the motives of the recent US actions after the failure and collapse of the classic Cold War security system, of which this country was considered the main axis? Is the American security order no longer relevant in the world?
The peculiar and unprecedented actions of the United States, based on a unilateral political and security approach in an international security system in which the country has played a key role since World War II, the first look at American security and related interests, the blackmail of old European partners to continue the mission of securing the continent on behalf of the United States, and the cumbersome efforts to modernize America's capabilities and military structure reveal something disturbing in the security mentality of this country that has not been addressed in the analysis carried out in the wake of the events.
But what is interesting is that despite Trump's inadequate measures and his unprecedented bullying of his long-standing security partners, no decision has been made to withdraw troops from the UK and Germany. This means that Trump does not want to drive the final nail into the coffin of the European security system, of which the US itself is the core!
At the same time, this country is trying to shirk commitments that have entailed great financial and economic costs for the United States and shift the burden of responsibility onto the shoulders of the Europeans, without realizing that the United States is no longer at the center of this security dynamic. In this sense, if Europe is left alone on the battlefield, Trump’s next move could be to withdraw from the agreement and make a final decision on East Asian security pacts such as AUKUS and QUAD, which would demonstrate a new set of cautious approaches in this country’s thinking regarding security.
Meanwhile, it is very important to know how Russia, China, and the Asian security axis assess Trump’s actions. Moreover, the fundamental question is how Trump’s proposed security order will interpret the path to solving the fundamental problems that this country faces and how will it be addressed? Undoubtedly, the reaction of the US’s rivals in this regard will also result in a change in the direction of this trend and the complex security system whose impact is felt in all areas of security, politics, economics, and defense in the world.
It is worth noting that by 2022, the number of US troops in Europe exceeded 100,000, of which 10,500 were in Poland, 4,000 in Lithuania, 3,300 in Hungary, and 900 in Bulgaria. This refusal to continue to fulfill its security commitments, which form the basis of US security thinking in the international security architecture, will expose Eastern Europe to Russian influence in the context of the negotiations on the Ukrainian war. Geographically, despite the shadow and widespread influence of America after the collapse of the bipolar world order, it is still considered to be the traditional sphere of influence of Russia as the most powerful European country.
Russia is currently in a better position to determine the geographical boundaries in Europe, given the change in policy of the new US administration led by Trump. Trump's conciliatory approach towards it is believed to lead to America abandoning numerous security commitments in other parts of the world, which will benefit the Asian axis, especially Russia and China.
However, the future direction of US security cooperation with its US-centered allies remains shrouded in uncertainty. Because if the US withdraws from these international treaties and security commitments, the international security architecture will take on a different shape than its allies. This question can be addressed through various international security assumptions.
For example, these American security pacts could leave the above-mentioned regions in a security vacuum as the country ceases to honor its commitments to old allies in Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East. Or the Asian security axis should work to fill this gap and take on new commitments, taking into account its special security interests, so that the United States is no longer at the center of these interactions and security dynamics.
Yet, developments in the coming months will provide answers to all these questions.
