What security order will the world follow after weakening the US's police role?
By Abdool Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitical Researcher, especially for Sangar
In my article “Trump – America’s Gorbachev,” I explained how Trump, with his unexpected actions, is leading the US down the path of collapse and irresponsibility in world politics, as happened with the Soviet Union. The fact that Trump, with his peculiar thinking and strange actions, shocks everyone – both friends and enemies of America- is gradually changing the international order based on the “American world” and the resulting security regime, which was based on cooperation and alliance.
The main problem is that if US allies lose confidence in this country and conclude that the US is no longer their supporter in security matters, they may reconsider their security and defense policies. This revision will not only change the international security regime but also fundamentally transform military alliances such as NATO, which, for many years after World War II, were the protective foundation of the “liberal American” order.
Furthermore, we must be aware that Trump’s “America First” approach is forcing countries in East Asia, Europe, and other US allies to build nuclear weapons and do everything they can to protect themselves. The world moves forward with such uncertainty about how to maintain an alliance with the United States, towards a nuclear world, the arming of countries that are constantly worried about their security, the integrity of their territory, and their existence. In a world in which everyone is armed, security anarchism will become the most important feature. This is happening because the United States can no longer, or will not, play the role of “world policeman”.
Accordingly, the world that entrusted its security to the United States in exchange for the security guarantees it offers is now forced to move towards the production and possession of nuclear weapons as a deterrent and guarantee of its survival. As mentioned, Trump's "America is First" approach emphasizes the interests of the American economy and undermines the country's traditional role as the "police of the world." This means a shift in priorities from political security to economic interests.
Of course, the United States plays a key role in this change and is consciously becoming part of the "de-Americanization" process. This process can, in turn, change the current order to a post-polar world, a world in which the United States is no longer the dominant superpower and can no longer dictate purely American political and ideological values with its military and economic might.
As a result, US allies are forced to reconsider their policies in the field of security and regional conflicts. This is done out of necessity. As mentioned earlier in the author's analysis, the world is on a wave of ideological imbalance, when one side is moving from liberal democracy to technofascism and extreme conservatism, and the other side is armed only with the concept of an authoritarian state. A very unequal balance that may not allow the world to peacefully transition to a post-polar order for many years. This means that there is no ideology for war in the world today.
In addition, Trump's controversial and dissatisfied policies towards traditional US allies have led to potentially dangerous regions such as East Asia, which were previously protected by the US security regime. A move that reflects anarchism at the level of the international system, and each center will move towards a security model taking into account security priorities and the level of threats. A security model in which nuclear deterrence is an accepted and possible formula is taken into account. For example, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan will have to follow this model to create security guarantees against their enemies. That is, a nuclear world in which these nuclear-armed entities will lead the world to serious security challenges in an attempt to preserve themselves and survive. No security agreement regime will be able to contain the challenges that will arise in the future due to its existence.
On the other hand, by creating such an uncertain and foggy atmosphere, Trump is moving towards transferring the headquarters of the American global security body to the East. While the Eastern Axis as a whole, including Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, is in conflict with the American security doctrine and uses every opportunity to create resistance against it, Russia has challenged the idea of the dominance of the American security regime by starting its conflict in Ukraine and creating security problems for the Europeans.
Given the current situation and Russia's excesses, which mainly stem from its security problems, the Trump administration presents the world with a new security thinking that no longer centers on the key and determining role of the United States in the economic, political, and defense spheres. This transformation in itself allows the Eastern Axis to more boldly share global governance in the post-transition period. Without creating tension or conflict between revolutionary and conservative forces. However, there are possible reasons behind Trump's thinking and actions that create the ground for such an atmosphere. Reasons such as Trump's lack of interest in the key role of the United States in NATO, extortion by the US allies, the uselessness of the US role as a policeman for the world for which the US should pay, the use of an isolationist approach in the US foreign and security policy aimed mainly at strengthening, avoiding further tensions in relations with Russia and clarifying the new role of the United States in reducing flashpoints play a key role.
Thus, by playing his new role, which leads to the reduction of US responsibility for security in the world, Trump weakens NATO and Europe and further directs the security dynamics towards self-help in the security sphere. Although Trump's thinking strengthens the position of the Eastern axis in the major world games, he skillfully exploits its failures. If this path continues, we will soon see the emergence of new security models based on self-help, with nuclear deterrence at its core. A chaotic world, armed to the teeth and immersed in chaos and flashpoints, which in itself calls into question the concept of international order and security.
