A federal structure could preserve Syria within its former borders.
Author: Nikolai Plotnikov, Head of the Center for Scientific and Analytical Information at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Political Science.
Original article: Образ "новой Сирии"
After the massacres of Alawites and Christians in the Syrian provinces of Latakia and Tartus, deadly clashes occurred in the areas where another ethnic and religious minority lives – the Druze. This is an Arabic-speaking religious community close to the Ismailis, from whom they separated at the beginning of the 11th century. Their approximate number in Syria is 500 thousand people (there are about 3 million Druze in the world, and much smaller communities can be found in Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan).
The Druze are negotiating with the new authorities of the country about their place in the Syrian state. Their leaders have demanded autonomy from Damascus, as they fear those who until recently held control of Idlib. Apparently, someone wanted to force the Druze to be more accommodating - a fake audio recording was leaked on social networks, attributed to a Druze cleric insulting the Prophet Muhammad. After the first blood was shed, the Syrian Interior Ministry said that the recording was mistakenly attributed to a Druze representative.
The spiritual leader of the Syrian Druze, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, condemned the sectarian violence as an "unjustified campaign of genocide." He issued a statement calling for the immediate intervention of "international forces to maintain peace and prevent the continuation of these crimes," which also shows a lack of trust in the new Syrian authorities. Nevertheless, on May 4, the Syrian government signed an agreement with the Druze community on guarantees for its security. However, no one really believes that it will be implemented.
Ethno-confessional violence in Syria continues. Murders and kidnappings for revenge or ransom are taking place almost everywhere. In Homs alone, the fate of more than 900 detainees is unknown. It has become common practice to confiscate homes and property, including with the use of weapons, from Alawites, Christians, and Druze.
The authorities were forced to give instructions not to film scenes of violence on mobile phones and not to post them on social networks, since this, they say, negatively affects the image of the new Syria. However, the gangs on the ground, among whom there are many foreign fighters, ignore this. All this testifies to the inability of the interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and his government to take control of the situation in the country.
As one of the Middle Eastern partners of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who is well acquainted with the situation in Syria, noted, the country is increasingly fragmenting. Al-Sharaa is unable to extend the authority of his government to its entire territory. In addition to the Druze, the Kurds also want to get clarity from Damascus about their future as part of the new Syria. They advocate preserving the territorial integrity of the country, but providing them with certain rights that they did not have under the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
The main external forces actually represented on the territory of Syria are Israel, Turkey, and the United States. Israel's policy towards Syria is basically clear. For Tel Aviv, the Assad regime was secular and generally predictable. The Salafist jihadists who came to power, professing the ideology of Al-Qaeda (an organization recognized as a terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation), are more radical. Israel does not want to get another strong enemy in its corner in addition to Hezbollah and Hamas. Immediately after the overthrow of Assad, Israeli troops went beyond the 1974 separation line separating the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights from the rest of Syria, and occupied additional territories, turning them into a buffer zone. The Israeli Air Force carried out hundreds of massive strikes on the territory of the neighboring state to destroy the remaining weapons of the former government army.
Judging by the actions and statements of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey is seeking to become a key player in Syria, effectively taking Iran's place there. As Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated, Ankara is doing everything possible to make Syria its protectorate. It is against a federal structure for Syria, in which the Kurds could be granted any autonomy. Turkey will not back down from its goal of eliminating the self-defense units on Syrian territory, which it views as an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.
Turkey may well come into conflict with Israel on the future structure of Syria, which, in turn, does not intend to leave the occupied territories and is purposefully working to split the Druze community in Syria.
There are statements, initiated by Israeli intelligence services, that some of the Syrian Druze would like to live as part of Israel, and not under the leadership of Sunni radicals. But it is unlikely that there will be direct military clashes between the Turkish and Israeli militaries. The Americans will not allow this. Both are their allies. This was confirmed by Erdogan's telephone conversations with US President Donald Trump.
Last week, the US President met with the leader of Syria for the first time in 25 years. The last time this happened was in 2000, when US President Bill Clinton held talks with Hafez al-Assad.
Trump's meeting with al-Sharaa took place in Riyadh. The day before, the US President announced his intention to lift US sanctions against Syria. Damascus called this step "a decisive turning point for the Syrian people." Residents of Syrian cities greeted this news with jubilation.
It seems that the Americans are not going to leave Syria. They limited themselves to withdrawing the contingent that was additionally brought in from bases in Iraq after the jihadists began their march on Damascus.
At the same time, there is much speculation in the West about Russia's policy in Syria. The EU Institute for Security Studies, considered a think tank in the field of foreign policy and security, has even gone so far as to say that the outbreak of violence in Latakia was allegedly connected with "continued Russian interference in Syria." Russia is allegedly hatching plans to create an Alawite republic. Statements of this kind are most often heard from Brussels and Paris. They do not particularly hide the fact that everything possible must be done to reduce Russia's presence not only in Syria, but in the entire Mediterranean region to an "absolute minimum."
During the tragic events in Latakia, the Russian military, unlike European officials, provided real assistance to those who needed it. As for Moscow's allegedly destructive role, President Vladimir Putin noted in a telephone conversation with Ahmed al-Sharaa that Russia and Syria "have historically been linked by relations of friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation." He declared a principled position in support of the "unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of the Syrian state".
In April, a dry cargo ship under the Russian flag delivered a fairly large batch of wheat grain to the port of Latakia - 6.6 thousand tons. This is the first grain delivery under the new Syrian government. Humanitarian aid may be increased if Western sanctions are lifted.
Syria needs literally everything. Funds are needed to restore the destroyed infrastructure, more than 90% of Syrians live in poverty, and every fourth Syrian is unemployed. According to a report by the UN Development Program, the damage to Syria's GDP during the 2011-2024 war amounted to about $800 billion. At the current growth rate, Syria will need more than 50 years to return to the economic level it had before the war, and large-scale investments are needed to speed up this process.
The interim government hopes for the final lifting of sanctions from Western capitals, as well as financial support from the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. According to the joint press conference of al-Sharaa and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on May 7, the European Union, through the latter, “will work to gradually lift European sanctions against Syria.”
Trump's promises to lift sanctions do not mean that Syria will be showered with investments right now. Until basic order is established in the country and the new government shows that it is truly capable of controlling the entire country and ensuring the safety of foreign investors and their funds, it is unlikely that there will be many people willing to invest in a ruined country where numerous gangs operate with impunity. In addition, al-Sharaa has declared his readiness to conclude a resource agreement with the United States, similar to the deal Washington has made with Kiev, which will mean complete control by the Americans of the most lucrative sectors of the Syrian economy. The rest will get crumbs. In addition, the Americans have put forward some conditions to al-Sharaa that he must first fulfill, in particular, expel from the country all foreign militants who have already received high positions in the Syrian security forces. For al-Sharaa, this means a conflict with those who helped him come to power.
The future of multinational and multi-confessional Syria is difficult to predict. Under the Assad regime, the Alawites shared power with other confessions to some extent, but now the Sunni Arabs intend to dominate Syrian society alone. But the Kurds, Turkomans, Druze, Circassians, Armenians, and Assyrians are unlikely to accept this. Religious minorities – Alawites, Shiites, and Christians – will not agree with the persecution of faith by the Salafis. There is only one way out – to negotiate and decide for ourselves what Syria should be like. The best option is a federal structure for the country.
