The likelihood of a repeat of the Chechen war is increasing.
Author: Green Trend of Afghanistan
The process of expanding the influence of the Pashtun population in territories historically dominated by other ethnic groups is called "Pashtunization". In the context of Afghanistan, this is manifested in the active migration of Pashtuns to the country's northern regions, traditionally inhabited by Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, and other ethnic minorities. This process has accelerated significantly since the Doha plot in 2020 and the rise of the Taliban to power in August 2021. These changes pose serious challenges for Russia and other countries in the region with strategic interests in Central Asia.
The main threats of the Pashtunization of northern Afghanistan are:
1 - Increased radicalism and extremism
- Strengthening of the Taliban: Since about 95 percent of Taliban members are Pashtuns, their expansion to the north strengthens radical elements adjacent to the borders of Central Asia, a region in which Russia has vital interests.
- Terrorist risks: there is a real danger of extremist groups penetrating the territory of the Russian Federation through the countries of Central Asia, which increases the likelihood of a repeat of terrorist attacks similar to the tragedy in Crocus City Hall on March 22, 2024.
2 - Destabilization of the Central Asian region
- Migration crisis: Since the Taliban came to power, about 8 million Afghans have been forced to leave the country, which has become an unprecedented burden for the countries of the region. New ethnic conflicts can provoke new flows of refugees, primarily to the countries of Central Asia.
- Interethnic conflict: Increased confrontation between Pashtun settlers and indigenous ethnic groups (Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras) may destabilize the situation in the entire Central Asian region.
3 - Geopolitical consequences
- Change in the balance of power: The vacuum created by the withdrawal of American troops and the transfer of power to the Taliban is being actively filled by China, Turkey, and Arab countries, which objectively weakens Russia's influence in the region.
- Ideological expansion: There are risks of penetration of radical Islamic ideologies into the Muslim regions of Russia. Of particular concern is the possible resumption of contacts between Taliban radicals and underground structures in the North Caucasus, similar to what happened in the 1990s, when Chechen militants settled in Kabul.
Conclusion
The Pashtunization of northern Afghanistan poses a complex threat to Russia's security. From the rise of extremist activity to the destabilization of Central Asia, all these challenges require the development of a coordinated strategy and constant monitoring of the situation by the Russian leadership and its partners in the region.
