What Game is the United States Playing with the Asian Alliance?
By Abdool Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitical Researcher, especially for Sangar
The US under Trump will make great efforts to maintain its position on the international stage, but with one difference: Trump wants to significantly reduce the costs that the US has paid over the years for it. This means that Washington wants to win this game of power and global hegemony with the least cost by making mysterious moves.
This is the effort of the United States to curb the activities, efforts, and actions taken in recent years by the Axis countries of the Asian allies, such as Russia, China, and Iran. From investments to establishing strategic ties with the world, from defense and security pacts to replacing the main arteries of economic security, from trying to conquer geography through military intervention to supporting America's enemies - Washington sees all this as part of the efforts of the Asian allies.
Trump claims that he can keep today's America at the forefront of world politics with minimal economic and financial costs. Since Joe Biden came to power, this country has seriously put on the agenda the strategy of creating a rift between China and Russia, or Russia and Iran, and between each of the parties. Even before that, Trump tried to hinder the development and strengthening of this alliance, creating discord through unprecedented and historic meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, warm relations with Putin, and superficial and deceptive diplomacy with the Chinese leader.
Now, by closing the Ukrainian issue, which also meets Russia's interests, Washington is trying to distance Iran and Russia from China, pursuing a policy of minimal pressure. In doing so, the goal of American strategy is to isolate China and leave it alone in the chaos of global competition with the United States, which can have a very negative impact on the spirit of this competition among the Chinese and limit the idea of Americaphobia and de-Americanization. The strategy of encircling China by the United States, cutting off maritime economic arteries, and creating obstacles to the implementation of China's "One Belt, One Road" plan is seen as one of the components.
At the same time, creating a rift in the Asian Union, in which China plays a key role, is seen as a security component, military, and political component of this strategy. On the other hand, supporting Taiwan is an instrument of pressure on the Chinese psyche, a manifestation of the traditional American policy of pressure on the Chinese.
Thus, by distancing Russia and Iran from the Asian axis, the United States is narrowing China's encirclement and trying to limit all areas of China's competition with America. Moreover, Washington intends to target Iran as the weakest member of the Eurasian Union and exclude it from it, while trying to sow discord among Asian allies, since this union, which includes China, Russia, and Iran, opposes the US-led world order through diplomatic, economic and military cooperation.
The Americans believe that in Trump's second term, the United States should take a more aggressive approach than the Biden government's defense policy. Instead of continuing the containment policy, Washington should exert minimal pressure on Iran to force it to stop cooperating with China and Russia. The roadmap for pressure on Iran should include several dimensions of economic pressure, military measures, diplomatic and ideological pressure, limiting the nuclear program, excluding Iran from the Eurasian Alliance, and weakening Iran in the so-called resistance axis so that Iran is forced to say “no” to this alliance.
On the other hand, having resolved the conflict in Ukraine, Russia should provide security guarantees arising from the country’s membership in NATO, stop pursuing NATO’s offensive policy in the East, and create bridges to ease the country’s political relations with Putin. The only option is China, which must be prevented from pursuing an expansionist policy against the United States through encirclement and pressure in the international arena.
Now the question arises: what are the Americans planning for the next stage of the game? The answer to this question is the core of this analysis, because regardless of the success and implementation of this plan, and whether this strategy is implemented or not, the Americans intend to place Iran in the vacuum of an alliance with China and Russia, pursuing a policy of minimal pressure and including it in international agreements to temporarily calm this country and ensure its contentment. Then, by creating an atmosphere of soft pressure, they will pave the way for a regime change in this country.
By yielding on the Ukrainian issue, Russia continues to be under the pressure of stifling economic sanctions, so it cannot escape this pressure and has no opportunity to respond to the traditional expansionist ambitions of the United States. Later, by strengthening alliances with neighbors and regional countries that do not have good relations with Russia, they will blockade this country and surround it with enemies so that it will not have the opportunity to breathe.
Only China, under the current method of blockade, is forced to fight for its survival and spend everything it has. In the opinion of the Americans, China alone will not be able to resist this chokehold and confront the United States. By doing so, Washington will be protected from the expansionist ambitions and excesses of the Asian axis. Because there is a famous saying: "If you want to eat an elephant, first cut it into pieces and then eat it."
Conclusion:
The strategy to split the Asian alliance is multifaceted and has various directions. This strategy can be summarized as follows: excluding Iran from the Eurasian Union and exerting maximum pressure on it, the current agreement with Russia, tightening the encirclement of this country by US allies, and maintaining the siege of China by restricting sea and land routes. The main goal of this strategy is to limit the Asian axis and eliminate their alliance, as well as American access to sensitive, key, and important strategic points that are considered necessary and mandatory to maintain the global position of the United States. For example, excluding Iran from the Eurasian Union will strengthen its position in the Middle East and weaken China and Russia.
This approach is comparable to successful strategies of the past, including the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in World War I and the Ottoman Empire's withdrawal from its alliance with Nazi Germany in World War II. To this end, Washington is trying to prevent the Asian axis from becoming a major headache for US global leadership.
In future articles, I will analyze the strength and effectiveness of Asian allies and how they perceive this American strategy since the Asian axis has also included preventive measures to counter this strategy on the agenda, which deserve discussion and analysis.
On the other hand, the United States is not the only one developing the strategy and playing the game. Major players such as China and Russia within the Asian axis have high economic, military, and geopolitical capabilities that can ensure the balance in this game of forces and geopolitical ambitions, and also considered the other side of this game.
