Has Iran Managed to Repel the Large-Scale Aggression?
Author: Dr. Fazl al-Hadi Wazin, politician and writer, especially for “Sangar”
Photo: A destroyed U.S. radar at the American military base in Al Udeid (Qatar) after being struck by an Iranian suicide drone.
In the tenth hour since the beginning of this comprehensive confrontation, battlefield assessments indicate major shifts in the regional balance of power. What has unfolded so far goes far beyond a limited conflict, and it appears that pre-designed plans for a lightning war have failed.
1 - Miscalculation in the First Strike
Contrary to initial forecasts, the first wave of attacks, dubbed “Shield of Judah” and “Preemptive Strike,” carried out by the U.S. coalition and the Zionist regime against Iran, did not possess the power and intensity anticipated in previous scenarios (such as the “12-Day War”). The weakness of the initial barrage indicates Iran’s high defensive preparedness and its ability to neutralize a significant portion of the attacking force before it reached its targets.
2 - High Morale and Unprecedented Speed of Response
The weakness of the first strike generated a wave of confidence within Iran’s command structure, resulting in a crushing and immediate response. Iran’s retaliation began not hours later, but within the very first minutes. In military logic, speed of response reflects cohesion in command and the existence of pre-established operational plans—standing in contrast to hesitation and confusion. With this swift reaction, Iran demonstrated that it was not in a passive position.
3 - Changing the Geography of the War and Seeking Deterrence
In a strategic initiative, Iran’s armed forces opened fire on 14 U.S. military bases in six countries across the region, as well as on targets within the occupied territories. This “horizontal expansion” of the battlefield sends a clear message: Iran seeks to alter the balance of power and define a new security order. As anticipated in recent days, after sustaining losses in past years, Iran views this war as a golden opportunity to restore its position and achieve a “great return.” It appears that warnings from advisors who cautioned Donald Trump about the risks of this adventure were ignored—and now the cost is being paid.
4 - Blinding the Enemy
In one of the most precise and sophisticated phases of the operation, Iran reportedly succeeded in destroying three advanced and strategic U.S. radars in Bahrain and Qatar. These systems provided radar coverage of up to 5,000 kilometers and functioned as the “brain and eyes” of the coalition’s defensive network, offering early warning of Iranian naval movements and missile launch platforms. With their destruction, the attacking coalition effectively faced “strategic blindness,” and its ability to track and counter subsequent waves of Iranian fire was significantly reduced. This tactic recalls Hezbollah’s successful actions at the outset of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” war, when it disabled the Zionist regime’s radars, securing months of missile dominance over the skies of occupied Palestine.
5 - Expanding the Sphere of Fear
By launching a large volume of missiles and drones in recent hours, Iran not only struck military targets but also created conditions for increased psychological pressure on soldiers, settlers of the Zionist regime, and their regional allies. The prevailing atmosphere at U.S. bases and in cities under the Zionist regime is reportedly one of fear and confusion—conditions that may lead to further miscalculations.
6 - A Propaganda Mistake by the Aggressors
Official and public statements by U.S. and Zionist regime officials declaring that “the ultimate goal is to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran” constituted a major strategic error. This stance effectively placed the heavy burden of an “existential war” upon the aggressors themselves and strengthened national unity within Iran. Under such conditions, Iran’s leadership—supported by a broad segment of the population—gains greater legitimacy and freedom of action for comprehensive defense.
7 - Moral Legitimacy for a Harsh Response
The horrific bombing of a girls’ school in Iran by the Zionist regime, resulting in the deaths of dozens of schoolgirls, deeply wounded public sentiment in the region. This inhumane act not only consolidates leadership domestically but also grants any retaliatory military action by Iran moral and humanitarian legitimacy in global public opinion. No limits to the severity of the response can now be envisioned.
8 - The “Strait of Hormuz Card” Comes into Play
Iran’s most significant geopolitical leverage—the Strait of Hormuz—has now been formally placed on the table. The Fars News Agency explicitly reported threats to close this vital waterway. At the same time, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations organization stated that it had received numerous messages from commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf regarding notifications about the possible closure of the strait. This indicates that Iran’s threat has taken on a direct and operational character. A prolonged war would mean serious disruptions to global energy flows and trade—a warning clearly directed at the world’s major powers.
In summary, after ten hours, the conflict is unfolding along a path entirely different from what the aggressors expected. Having moved beyond a purely defensive phase, Iran has seized the initiative and shifted the balance in its favor. What is taking shape today is not the birth of a new regional order, but the end of an old one—and the imposition of a resilient nation’s will upon its aggressors.
