The Taliban, banned in the Russian Federation, and its units are trying to reduce China’s influence in the region.
Author: Ghaus Janbaz, political scientist and former diplomat of Afghanistan, source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Foreign instructors and coordinators of the terrorist Taliban, banned in the Russian Federation, who helped the Islamists come to power, are satisfied with their actions, especially in the “fight against terrorism” over the past two years. The international community makes no claims regarding the distribution of humanitarian aid, and information regarding its misuse by Western governments is, as a rule, not taken into account. The same complacency is in the economic sphere - the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank speak mostly positively in their reports: taxes are collected, customs are under control...
The main achievement of the Taliban over two years can be called the ability to at least outwardly maintain monolithic and unity of command. The movement was not divided into parts and factions, which, frankly speaking, would be typical for Afghans and Afghanistan. The Taliban have so far managed to prevent civil strife. However the opposition forces, including the armed opposition, during this time were unable to create a real military-political front either within the country or abroad.
Although the Afghan authorities have severely limited the rights and freedoms of women and, in general, severely infringe on basic human rights, all major powers from Japan to Indonesia, from the US to the EU, Russia, China, Central Asian countries, not to mention Pakistan, maintain “regular contacts,” hold meetings with the Taliban representatives and are inclined to position them as a legitimate, equal partner. One gets the impression that all countries have come to an agreement and are unanimously waiting for the internal transformation of the Taliban, considering it inevitable.
The question remains: does the Taliban have mass support in the country? There are subtleties here. The Taliban, in principle, do not believe that the state is obliged to provide socio-economic services to the population and organize education. The Taliban considers it their duty to show the faithful the “true path” and provide them with “purification of the soul.” As for strengthening state social institutions, this is God’s work. The Lord and only he has the right to do this if he considers it necessary. An increase or decrease in crops, the availability of food on shelves, in bazaars, starvation, malnutrition, unemployment - this is God’s prerogative, the Taliban state does not care about this...
Western instructors of the Taliban at the initial stages hoped that the new authorities would be able to form, at least outwardly, something like a “state establishment”, convene a Loya Jirga (the traditional all-Afghan supreme assembly of people’s representatives - “NG”) and form legitimate structures of state power and management will issue laws. However, the Taliban did not consider it possible in two years to even put forward draft legislative acts regulating social, economic, and political relations in the country, or to determine the type of its socio-political structure. The maximum that the Taliban's potential was enough to do was to form an interim government on September 7, 2021, consisting of semi-literate mullahs. This attitude of the Taliban toward the government forced Western curators to delay their official recognition, and they began to use a different tactic against the Taliban - Deal.
Particularly interesting is the interaction between the Afghan Taliban and the terrorist movement Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) (as NG reported on 04/17/23, in the “Unified Federal List of Organizations, including Foreign and International Organizations Recognized in accordance with according to Russian legislation as terrorist", "Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan" is not. But Roskomnadzor told NG that, according to information from open sources, the TTP "carries out close cooperation with the Taliban movement organization, which is recognized by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation as a terrorist and included in the Unified Federal List." In the final statement adopted on April 13 following the meeting in the "Russia, Iran, China, Pakistan" format, the TTP was named among the terrorist groups "representing a threat to regional and global security").
Those who have little knowledge of the intricacies of the region have a somewhat contradictory perception of the relationship between the Taliban and the TPP. The Taliban is a tool in the hands of the West, in particular the Anglo-American one. The entire history of the so-called Afghanistan-Pakistan+India region shows that almost all religious organizations there are strategic instruments, as well as effective partners of England. Moreover, the Taliban’s relationship with the West is completely different than with Russia and China. Contacts between the Taliban and the Russian Federation are situational and tactical in nature. It seems that both sides would like to stall for time, maintaining the appearance of communication. The Americans allow the Taliban to have limited interaction with Moscow, but only enough so that Russia does not resort to harsh actions. Russia, while supporting the aforementioned “deal,” is trying to monitor the development of the situation in the region in order to try to influence it from the inside, preventing the situation from getting out of control and turning against the Russian Federation and its allies.
Iran and China's relationship with the Taliban is also tactical. Chinese merchants and mining specialists are visiting one deposit after another, verbally declaring their readiness to invest. But China understands perfectly well that in the global game that has begun, the Taliban are just a tool and still retain their main connection with the same Americans.
In turn, the TTP is controlled by certain circles of Pakistani intelligence services loyal to the United States. Consequently, its goals on a global scale are also determined by Americans. The immediate task of the TTP is to put pressure on the Pakistani army in order to prevent some army commanders from uncontrollably moving towards rapprochement with China. The current activation of TPP is connected precisely with this. Another task is to act against any transport, economic, and infrastructure projects located in the territory from Chatral to Balochistan, including places of compact residence of the largest ethnic group in these places - the Pashtuns. This is being done so that the Chinese will eventually have to stop developing these places.
Most experts predicted that with the coming to power, the Taliban and its ideological allies from the TTP would immediately rush towards Central Asia (read into the sphere of interests of Russia) and Iran. But judging by what is happening, the main target for now is China, and the main game will revolve around it. It is important for the jihadists to push the PRC out of Pakistan by all visible and invisible means, and then they will take up other flanks, turning their attention to Iran and Central Asia.
