They show that supposedly Tajikistan will be next according to the plan, but due to general negligence, Turkmenistan will become the target in the first stage.
Author: Abdunaser Nurzad, security and geopolitics researcher, Sangar columnist
New movements in the region by the extra-regional allies, especially in the north of Afghanistan, show that there are ongoing efforts to make the encirclement ring tighter from both sides of Russia and Iran due to the issue of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the issue of Afghanistan and the TTP. A large number of abductions in northern Afghanistan have been carried out for the purpose of information deception; although it is symbolically shown that the next plan is over Tajikistan, but due to everyone's negligence, Turkmenistan will be the target in the first step. This principle in the current war, which has a hybrid character, is an aspect of information wars.
At the same time, the rivals of the regional allies are well aware that Tajikistan is in close cooperation with Russia, and its security regime is closely related to the collective security agreement, of which Russia is an important part, and it is also ready for war. They show that the program is top of this country. While in an unpredictable movement, they hit another point that is more vulnerable. For this purpose, the issue of northern Afghanistan is becoming serious and efforts are underway to prevent the gathering of resistance-oriented and anti-Taliban forces and the plans of their supporters in northern Afghanistan through political programs.
At the same time, around these military and strategic efforts, they have organized parallel political processes in Turkey, Pakistan and Europe to prevent the formation of a broad front against the Taliban and transnational terrorists. In fact, the main fear of the extra-regional allies is that they will not allow any movement against the Taliban and the plan to transfer terrorists to northern Afghanistan.
In the meantime, the position of the Chinese is still unclear. The Chinese go on their way until the 90th minute and think that they have chosen the path of securing their interests, while there is also a plan for the Chinese's negligence. Apparently, the Chinese move in sync with the Taliban on the red carpet; While there are extensive plans to create security threats in the environment of the Asian and regional allies. The red carpet rolled out for China in Afghanistan and the entanglement of Russia and Central Asia in the war against insurgency in the region is the result of an organized process by their rivals. Efforts are being made to prevent the possible alliance between China and Russia in the northern area.
Iran and the Taliban have a serious security problem. The recent unrest in Baluchistan and Systan is a source of concern for Tehran authorities. Iranians have accurate information that suspicious things are going on against their interests. Two days ago, the Iranian authorities showed pictures of the American weapons they had just acquired and were supposed to be given to their opponents. Basically, the source of concern for Iranians is an organized movement by multinational terrorists, which the Taliban have provided a suitable platform for. The issue of ISIS has been suspended for the time being, and the concern of Jundullah and other Baluch groups against the Iranian regime is. What is apparently being reported in the media is an intelligence cover-up for an organized counter-attack by the Iranian regime, which has been prepared in close coordination with Russia.
The Russians carefully follow the events in the Caucasus. Because the role of America, Turkey and other competitors of Russia can be seen in recent developments in Armenia and Azerbaijan. The battle has begun on the two fronts of the Asian Allies. Like the case of information omission in Central Asia, the Caucasus region may suffer from a wrong perception and a wrong strategic calculation. Although the probability of this is very low for now and the Russians have good experiences of such information tricks, but the calculation of their competitors shows that they are trying in such a direction.
But the case of Afghanistan still remains in the group of mystery and ambiguity. The resulting security puzzle absolutely shows the nature of the Afghan crisis, a security crisis affected by geopolitical factors. This closed security and geopolitical equation portends a dark future for Afghanistan. According to the author, until a security consensus and a move towards a geopolitical program is not made by the Asian allies, the plan of extra-regional allies will take a step forward every day to destroy the regional security regime. This process has affected all the security dynamics of the region and will not have good consequences for the security, economy and political stability of the region.
