Who and what game will play in Afghanistan?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
One of the reasons why Afghanistan is involved in a long-term conflict is its location. Elements such as instability, the lack of formation of the nation, unstable systems and the intervention of neighbors are other causes that have added to the depth of the crisis in this war-torn country.
From the previously mentioned situation, we can mention the influence and shadow of the global crisis of power transfer from Europe to Asia. According to the available evidence, Asia should be the center of competition, interaction and the dynamic center of global politics, now and in the future. The presence of China, India, Russia, and Iran, the economic power and the fast pace of this continent's movement towards the leadership of the new world order, show that the Asian continent and under its radius, Afghanistan, will continue to remain at the center of bloody competitions. The tension and security crisis, the attempt for political domination and the creation of proxies to pursue interests can be other unique features of politics in Asia.
The reason for this can be two things:
- The theory of power transition from Europe and America to Asia;
- Fundamental differences between the Asian allies.
But now, America is using every tactic to maintain its declining power. The only country that can help America in this unbalanced and unjustified battle; it is Pakistan. Pakistan is involved in a political conflict, with a wave of increasing insecurity and a severe economic crisis that has bent its back. Pakistanis also welcome this equation for their own interests; because they have to and need to have a way to breathe. According to Pakistan, it remains an essential element in the policies of the Asian region and it is unlikely to enter a meaningful circle of regional understanding.
The internal cause of the crisis in Afghanistan, which is the Taliban, is slowly getting out of control. There are speculations about the creation of ISIS, whose pivot point will be in Pakistani schools and its remote control will be in the hands of ISI (inter-service Intelligence). Why is such a program in mind? Because the Taliban, as expected by America and Pakistan, could not carry out the plans and create danger like ISIS-K. The same equation that first showed Pakistan's investment in Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hizb-e-Islami, later the Taliban became its replacement, and now ISIS is growing as its replacement.
On the other hand, the sleeping forces in northern Afghanistan, which consists of more than twenty foreign terrorist groups, have not been able to play an effective, simultaneous and decisive role in the instability of the region, especially the borders of China and Central Asia. This program has failed due to the strong reaction of the region, especially Russia, China and Iran, with a silent intelligence game of the region.
So one side of the equation is ISIS, which can play a role according to the new conditions. This ISIS-K plan may face opposition from some parts of the Taliban. It is because of this that sometimes, by setting up scenarios such as border conflicts, on the one hand, they keep the Taliban busy and on the other hand, they make the trained groups of ISIS inside Afghanistan. In addition, the twenty terrorist groups that are sleeping in the north and northeast of Afghanistan will be the precautionary units of ISIS-K in the future. Of course, the connection of fake game with ISIS and Taliban is also quite evident. Haqqani network has played an unwanted role in the media promotion of ISIS. But the case did not remain like this and the original ISIS must come to the scene.
The interesting point in this game is that ISIS-K factions are deliberately chosen from Tajiks, Uzbeks and Turkmens. The reason they do this is that they have realized that Tajiks have an irreplaceable place in the selection of Asian powers due to their potential, authentic human culture, and political and specialized personnel. Due to the terrorist identity of the Tajiks in the future equations of Afghanistan, the tag of ISIS-K is deliberately brought into play for this tribe in order to dissuade the Asian allies from choosing this strong and field-building option. But with what they are doing, the reality is that the Tajik tribe is a tribe with culture and against any kind of extremism, and the stable and peaceful future of the region with Afghanistan will depend on the interaction with this tribe.
But the Russians are consulting for strategic choices. The aggressive stance of the Russians in putting pressure on the Taliban to change the shape and format of the political structure in Afghanistan, to form an inclusive government and to consider all ethnic groups in Afghanistan, shows that the Pashtuns and the Taliban are not the choice of the Russians. Because this group is closer to the security agendas of the West and the United States, and they are considered to be nothing more than the game of the Americans inside Afghanistan.
Contrary to expectations, the Iranians should have brought Fatemiyoun into the field in the offensive phase to protect their interests, but now they are wasting time with intelligence compromises. Because the Iranians' understanding of the current situation is to organize a deliberate confrontation between Iran and the Taliban, to engage Iran in addition to involving the Middle East front in the east. Based on this, this equation progressed to some extent; but it failed soon and unexpectedly. Now the path of diplomacy is on its way.
After the American elections, there may be a compromise between Iran and the United States, the result of which will be an undesired coalition between the parties based on compulsions. The US is trying to make the sides of the competition in Asia pure, so that it has allies like Iran and Pakistan, just like the SENTO and CYTO pacts. Because Pakistan alone cannot play an effective role in this dangerous game for the conquest and preservation of American hegemony. More radical elements are included in this game.
Another assumption is that if the US was not in the region, the future of the Arabs allied to the US should be guaranteed in collusion with Iran. The Arabs understand this issue well and are fully aware of Iran's strong role in this regard. It is based on this that Iran has realized the movements of the Arab countries, its own role in the future and a guarantee for the preservation and survival of the Akhandi regime in the region, and in an unprecedented interaction with the Taliban, who are allies of Al-Qaeda, from religious and fundamentalist practices.
After giving all these concessions to the Taliban and taking unusual steps to secure an unprecedented relationship with the terrorist regime of the Taliban, China has realized the multifaceted and destructive role of Pakistan. China has realized that Pakistan, like other players, changes its role every moment for its interests, and this may change the future against the strategic and vital interests of China. Therefore, the suspension of the construction work and the reopening of the Wakhan route was a reaction from the Chinese to be decided upon after consultation with the Russians. Because according to the Chinese, the Wakhan route was a dessert thrown into the mouth of regional terrorism to endanger China's security.
By choosing urgent options, Central Asia is trying to preserve itself in this dangerous game with international dimensions. For this reason, some Central Asian countries, except Tajikistan, have established precautionary relations with the Taliban in order to remain safe from the danger of this group and the terrorism supported by it. Handing over embassies and establishing communication networks with the Taliban are all connected in the same way.
Pakistan is involved in a dangerous and historical crisis, trying to protect itself by any means possible. By playing multiple roles, using the traditional tools of terrorism and religious extremism, supporting the conflicting parties in the Afghanistan issue, it is very afraid of India taking the lead in this game. Therefore, he tries to use every means in this game.
India, US's strategic ally, Pakistan's and China's historical rival and opponent, Russia's and Iran's hesitant ally in regional interactions, has undertaken the same tactical interaction to maintain and expand its interests. The establishment of communication networks between India and the Taliban group has been done with the advice of the Americans. But it should not be forgotten that India is still hesitant to choose which side of the equation? Accept the region and its future or America with its security and de-security agendas?
Meanwhile, the Russians play an active role. Active Russian diplomacy, from the Moscow format to the regional initiative, is striving for change and transformation in the deadlocked situation in Afghanistan. The Russians are trying to link the Taliban with other resistance groups and to neutralize security agendas such as ISIS. In this case, the consensus of the Chinese also plays an effective role. Therefore, measurements should be taken for a big transformation that may happen instantly.
The Taliban are no longer considered to have an absolute role and an undisputed competitor in the Afghan issue, as in the past. Extremist factions should give way to a regional expedient convergence with a slight change in the balance of power at the international level. This means that the Taliban and their intellectual friends are no longer the definitive side of the equation. What changes the equation is the fact that the region no longer has the tendency to extremism, nor do the agendas of the great powers of the region match the logic of using extremism.
