How long will the “old and new” Russian government work?
Author: Fayaz Bahraman Najimi, regional and international affairs analyst, member of the Sangar Advisory Council.
I recently wrote that there is a possibility of Sergei Lavrov being removed from the post of Russian Foreign Minister in the Cabinet of Ministers. But Putin, as usual, pulled off a surprise and surprised all the experts: instead of removing Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, he removed the Russian Defense Minister. He appointed him head of the National Security Council. Nikolai Patrushev, the "Iron Man", has lost his post, but is likely to be appointed to another important position.
No Western expert or critic of Putin expected such a change, since Sergei Shoigu was a very influential person in the chain of power relations in Russia, who played a role in Putin's rise to the presidency during the Yeltsin era. He was a close friend of Putin. But the war in Ukraine and Prigozhin's rebellion dealt a mortal blow to his authority among the military, especially the warring forces.
Over the past ten years, Shoigu has created a powerful group of military and economic companies that have earned unprecedented wealth by taking on military contracts and built enormous financial and military power with the help of corrupt generals in the Ministry of Defense surrounding him.
This caused widespread discontent at the lower levels of the Ministry of Defense, which, if left unchecked, could sooner or later turn their guns towards Putin's power.
The current defense minister is a technocrat and economist who governs more in the spirit of Soviet times, that is, prioritizing government planning rather than outsourcing the military to private companies.
He is one of the figures loyal to Putin, enjoying the support of Ekaterina Tikhonova, Putin's second daughter. They say that in the corridors of the Kremlin Ekaterina has great power and has earned the title of “gray eminence.”*
Andrei Belousov is known in the West as a radical, who is tasked not only with stopping theft in the Ministry of Defense but also with managing the ministry’s budget with the military-industrial complex towards the military economy. He will also begin a massive purge of the ministry to remove Western-oriented generals from the Defense Department.
Putin created a military circle as a complement to the anti-Western radicals. Still, on the other hand, he kept the dialogue open with the West, maintaining the liberal economic team. Sergei Lavrov remained in the middle of both factions. He may remain in his position until the American elections become clearer.
If the Democrats win the US elections again, there is a possibility that Russia will close all doors of negotiations with the West.
Until then, the Russian prime minister and his new and old teams are faced with the task of preparing the Russian economy for war.
In Russia, soft reforms are coming from above. Let's see whether the lower classes will take advantage of this or whether the war factor will, as usual, lead to a revolutionary explosion!?
*This term dates back to the time of Louis XIII of France. François Leclerc du Tremblay, known as Father Joseph, was a low-ranking but influential cleric who played a key role in the secret decisions of Cardinal Richelieu and was known as the “gray cardinal.”
