What are Dushanbe and Taliban Kabul discussing?
Author: Ahmad Saidi, Afghanistan and regional analyst (Switzerland), especially for "Sangar"
Yesterday, the media reported that the adviser to the Security Council of Tajikistan visited Kabul, but the information I have is that it is not the adviser to the Security Council, but Mr. Saidmumin Yatimov, who is the head of the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan and who traveled to Afghanistan last month. This trip was such that it was not supposed to be shared with the media. But yesterday it was revealed by the Taliban. I do not know why it was revealed.
Of course, Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan extends for hundreds of kilometers. Afghanistan imports electricity from Tajikistan, and the Taliban owes Tajikistan a large sum of money for electricity.
On the other hand, although the US fought the Taliban for 20 years, today they give the Taliban millions of dollars a week.
Tajikistan also has the right to establish economic, even political, and cultural relations with its southern neighbor.
But I do not think there will be any fundamental changes in the case of those who are fighting the Taliban.
I think the closeness of Tajikistan and the Taliban is complex and depends on many factors. In general, Tajikistan and the Taliban have not had good relations in the past, and the Taliban has been criticized by the Taliban. But given the recent changes in the region, some possible reasons for Tajikistan's change in approach to the Taliban may include:
1 - Regional Security: Given that Tajikistan borders Afghanistan, one of the country's main concerns is border security and preventing the infiltration of terrorist groups and drug traffickers from Afghanistan. Tajikistan may have to engage with the Taliban to maintain regional stability and security.
2 - Economic Interests: Afghanistan and Tajikistan also have economic and trade dependencies. Tajikistan may try to maintain trade and economic ties with Afghanistan to strengthen its economic interests.
3 - International and Regional Pressure: Regional countries and major powers may push Tajikistan to engage with the Taliban. For example, Tajikistan's position may be influenced by the role of Russia and China, as well as Kyrgyzstan's proximity to the Taliban, which has been somewhat hostile to Tajikistan in the past and is seen as a rival in regional politics and engagement with the Taliban.
4 - Domestic Politics: The Tajik government may support engagement with the Taliban for domestic reasons, as well as to maintain domestic stability and counter opposition groups.
Ultimately, this rapprochement or change in relations between Tajikistan and the Taliban may result from a combination of these factors and may change over time as regional and international conditions change.
