How the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are fighting for influence on the Taliban banned in Russia and what Russia is doing
Author: Andrey Serenko, Director of the Analytical Center of the Russian Society of Political Scientists
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Russia
Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) have significantly stepped up their political, diplomatic, and intelligence efforts in the Afghan direction. These Arab states today, not without success, are using in their own interests the protracted strategic pause in the geopolitical game of major regional and world powers that arose after the rapid withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in August 2021. The Taliban leaders who gained power were unable to achieve political recognition and external financial and economic assistance, even from Iran, China, and Russia, the main opponents of the Western project in Afghanistan. As a result, the Afghan state, which came under the control of the Taliban thanks to a deal concluded with the Americans in February 2021, has plunged into the abyss of a hopeless systemic crisis, from which there is no way out in the foreseeable future.
Against this background, the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf extended their helping hands to the Taliban. Qatar, the UAE, and the KSA are competing for influence over various factions within the Taliban regime and, accordingly, over the situation in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. To date, the government and business structures of the UAE are successfully cooperating with the leadership of the Haqqani Network (an organization banned in the Russian Federation), whose head Sirajuddin Haqqani is the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Taliban, and also actually controls the activities of the Directorate of National Security (DNS) and the Taliban General Staff. It is thanks to this partnership that UAE businessmen managed to recently outbid Qatari and Turkish competitors to service the Kabul airport.
Until recently, Qatar was only able to control the activities of the political office of the Taliban in Doha, as well as to influence the "Kandahar group" in the Taliban government, which is headed by Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. It is well known that the Baradara group and the Haqqani group are the main competitors in the struggle for leadership within the Taliban, and so far one could talk about some kind of parity of power, perhaps with some advantage of the Haqqanis. However, it seems that Doha intends to change this balance of power - in its favor. This may explain the recent two-day visit to Qatar by Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqub (who is also the son of the founder of the Taliban, Mullah Mohammad Omar, and leader of the third major faction in the Taliban leadership). The head of the Kabul military department was met in Doha at the highest level: Mullah Yaqub received an audience with the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, talked with Defense Minister Khalid bin Muhammad al-Atiyah, Foreign Minister Muhammad bin Abd al-Rahman al-Thani, all the main leaders of the Qatari power bloc.
The Qatari side proposed to Mullah Yaqub to conclude a special agreement in the defense sphere. In particular, it provides not only the possibility of training Afghan cadets in Qatari military educational institutions and assistance in the construction of military infrastructure in Afghanistan but also financing from the Qatari budget for such expenses of the Taliban Ministry of Defense as monetary allowances for military personnel. In other words, Doha is ready to start paying salaries to the Taliban militants, who are now legalized through the Afghan army institution and controlled by Mullah Yaqub.
Thus, now Qatar already has two promising figures on the Afghan political board - Mullah Baradar and Mullah Yaqub, who together, relying on the diverse support of Doha, can intensify the struggle for power within the Taliban with the Haqqani group, relying on the assistance of the UAE and Pakistan. True, the Pakistani factor, according to some observers, is now beginning to give way in terms of its capabilities to Arab intrigues, which is directly related to the severe internal crisis in Pakistan.
There is reason to believe that the increased Qatari factor in Afghanistan will work not only in the interests of Doha: as is known, it is through Qatar that the Americans successfully implement their various Afghan projects. According to some sources, the US intelligence agencies in Qatar are now responsible for the main collection of intelligence information on Afghanistan. Almost certainly, both the invitation of Mullah Yaqub to Doha and the idea of a defense agreement between Qatar and the Taliban army were organized not without the participation of representatives of Washington.
Against the backdrop of the activity of Doha and Abu Dhabi in Afghanistan, which almost openly dismantled the most promising factions of the Taliban for themselves, Riyadh seems to have chosen a more subtle strategy. The Saudis began working simultaneously with all three major interest groups in the leadership of the Kabul Taliban government, inviting influential representatives from the Haqqani clans, the groups of Mullah Yaqub and Mullah Baradar to a dialogue, and at the same time casting fishing rods through religious diplomacy and into Kandahar, where the headquarters of the shadow government is located Taliban.
In the Afghan strategy of the Saudis, a special role is played by "hajj diplomacy", when during the pilgrimage to Mecca, very influential functionaries from various Taliban factions actually come to Saudi Arabia for an interview. For example, most recently, Anas Haqqani, the younger brother of Sirajuddin Haqqani, who has a reputation as a young Islamic intellectual with a good future, was seen among them. According to some information, in addition to Anas Haqqani, about 100 more functionaries and commanders of the Afghan Taliban will be allowed through the Hajj diplomacy channels.
In general, religious diplomacy is the most powerful and exclusive resource of the KSA: the kingdom, being the custodian of the main shrines of Islam, may not without reason believe that if Doha and Abu Dhabi can control 300 thousand Taliban at best, then the voice of Riyadh, if the Saudis wish all 35 million Afghans will hear.
However, this voice may also be heard by millions of Muslims in the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia, who may also be affected by the consequences of the activation of competing for Arab diplomacy in Afghanistan. And there are far more questions than answers here. In which hands will the money of the Qataris, the Emirates, and the Saudis fall? What other related projects may arouse interest not only among businessmen but also among the secret services of the Gulf countries? Will these projects be limited only to Afghanistan and the Taliban? Some observers believe that the upcoming “Arab political renaissance” in Afghanistan cannot but affect Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and even Kazakhstan, where there is already a rise in the popularity of specific religious doctrines and brands. In Afghanistan itself, more than 5,000 foreign fighters, mostly from the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia, are quite calmly in the ranks of the "Islamic State" (IS, banned in the Russian Federation). And there are no guarantees that with the appearance of Arab gold in Afghanistan, these militants will not increase.
It is still difficult to say how Russian diplomacy plans to respond to these new challenges and nuances in the Afghan political situation. “Russia’s influence in Afghanistan today, including in its northern part, the most important for Moscow, is zero,” one of the most authoritative Afghan politicians, who sincerely advocates cooperation with the Russians and, by the way, is well acquainted with some Arab intrigues in the region. He promised that he would sit down in the coming days "to write a letter to Putin", because "there is no one else in Moscow to turn to, and ahead of not only the Afghans but the entire region, even more, difficult times are ahead."
