Why the Bagram Military Base Is of Decisive Importance to the Taliban
By Ahmad Saidi, Analyst on Afghanistan and Regional Affairs (Switzerland), especially for “Sangar”
The Bagram Airbase has now become a bleeding wound.
In recent days, despite repeated requests from Donald Trump, the President of the United States, the Taliban refused to comply. They emphasized that “under no circumstances are we willing to hand over Bagram Airbase.”
However, there are reliable reports that, under pressure and following consultations with Qatar and other patrons, the Taliban were advised to make the Bagram base available to the U.S.—but in exchange for a monthly payment. If the Taliban agree and accept Qatar’s recommendations, they could lease Bagram Airbase to the United States for $20–30 million per month. This move would have extensive and complex political, economic, and security consequences.
Will the U.S. take such a step?
In my opinion, yes. There are precedents for such agreements worldwide. The United States operates military bases in several countries under lease agreements, such as Qatar (Al-Udeid Air Base), Kuwait, Germany, Japan, and South Korea.
In all these countries, the U.S. either pays rent or provides military, political, or economic assistance in return. Therefore, from Washington’s perspective, leasing Bagram is not impossible—especially if strategic objectives in the region are prioritized (for example, controlling the movements of China, Russia, Iran, or regional terrorist groups).
What would happen if the Taliban leased Bagram?
Advantages:
- The Taliban would emerge from complete political and economic isolation.
- They would gain a monthly foreign currency income to manage the country.
- It could potentially be a step toward international recognition.
Disadvantages:
- They would face severe domestic criticism and opposition from radical and extremist factions.
- Their religious and ideological legitimacy among traditional supporters would be seriously undermined.
- Internal divisions within the Taliban leadership (between pragmatists and ideologues) could intensify.
What if Bagram is not leased?
- They would maintain political independence.
- However, they would remain under economic and political pressure from the U.S.
- America would likely seek alternative bases in Central Asia or Pakistan.
Conclusion:
The decision to lease Bagram is a double-edged sword for the Taliban. While economically beneficial, it would be costly domestically and ideologically. The political future of the Taliban hinges on whether they can strike a balance between political pragmatism and ideological loyalty. We just have to wait a little longer. Stay tuned for my next articles.
