Against the background of the possible strengthening of the ISIL-Khorasan* factor in Afghanistan, the countries of Central Asia need even closer cooperation in the security field.
Author: Sherali Rizoyon
What happened in Termez? Was there any shelling of the territory of Uzbekistan from Afghanistan controlled by the Taliban*? Telegram channel message was fake? These and other questions are of concern to everyone who is interested in the security of Central Asia today.
Recall that on April 18, on the Telegram channel of the press service of the President of Uzbekistan, there was a message about the absence of rocket fire from the territory of Afghanistan of the units of the Armed Forces of Uzbekistan near the city of Termez and an appeal was made "not to succumb to provocations."
Yesterday, Abdulqahhar Balkhi, spokesman for the Taliban Foreign Ministry, commented on the situation on the Afghan-Uzbek border on his Twitter. According to him, the situation on the border did not cause concern and reaffirmed the obligation of the Taliban "to all their neighbors to ensure in all seriousness the control of the borders of Afghanistan and not allow anyone to violate security."
The reason for such comments was the reports on Telegram channels about the rocket attack from ISIL-Khorasan, and they claimed responsibility for the attack, attaching video evidence.
Regardless of the veracity or "inconsistency with reality" of the fact of the shelling - how to understand this circumstance?
1. The involvement of the ISIL-Khorasan factor in Afghanistan and the information support for this "operation" by a number of media outlets allows us to conclude that a new round of hidden wars is beginning. Obviously, in such a turn of events, the degree of terrorist threats will grow in Afghanistan itself and will affect all neighboring countries. The Central Asian region will not be an exception. After the armed takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban in August 2021, there were many assumptions and analyses about the strengthening of the ISIL-Khorasan factor in this country, including the growth of terrorist activity. Obviously, this is not the first informational or obvious provocation using the ISIL-Khorasan factor.
2. Since there is no confirmed information on this incident, there is a reason for different assessments and assumptions. Materials from which “device” and how the rocket attack was carried out have already been published. This circumstance once again confirms the idea that the terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan are not "virtual" in nature and are a cause for serious concern. No one but the region's countries is interested in ensuring the security and stability of Central Asia, external actors will traditionally be guided by their own interests.
3. There is confusion in understanding the current role of the Taliban in Afghanistan. A number of resources that are engaged in the formation of a positive image of the Taliban are beginning to contradict themselves. They broadcast the opinion that the Taliban are in full control of the situation in Afghanistan and are fighting ISIL-Khorasan and have provided security in this country, which has not been for 40 years. If the fact of the ISIL-Khorasan attack is confirmed, then many questions will arise and the search for an answer to them will be both simple and difficult. It is indisputable that for any terrorist threat from Afghanistan against the states of Central Asia, the responsibility rests with the Taliban. They have been governing the country illegally for the past eight months and must enforce their statement that terrorist organizations do not use the territory of Afghanistan to carry out destructive actions against neighboring states, including against three border countries in the north.
Despite different policies and assessments of the role of the Taliban in today's Afghanistan by the states of Central Asia, all of them are equally interested in ensuring both regional and their own security. Making contacts with the Taliban or ignoring them is primarily dictated precisely by considerations of minimizing threats and challenges. Against the background of the possible strengthening of the ISIL-Khorasan factor in Afghanistan, the countries of Central Asia need even closer cooperation in the security field.
*The organization is under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.
*The organization is under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.
