Why has the bastion of resistance to terrorism turned into a major terrorist camp?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, exclusively for Sangar
Original article: پنجشیر — پناهگاه جدید برای «القاعده»
Since the handover of power to the Taliban, the group has transformed Afghanistan into a safe haven for multinational terrorist groups, including internationally notorious organizations such as al-Qaeda and ISIS. Increasing warnings from certain powers about the resurgence of these groups in various parts of Afghanistan have heightened growing concerns about the expanding threat to regional security. Among these, the escalating activities of ISIS-Khorasan and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan have taken center stage in security analyses.
Specifically, reports indicate that al-Qaeda is rebuilding its operational capacity in Afghanistan. Although the Taliban—and even many colonial powers—deliberately turn a blind eye to the network’s presence in the country, the reality is that, with close cooperation from the Taliban, al-Qaeda is establishing new bases in Afghanistan’s mountainous and strategic regions, particularly in Panjshir province. This trend reveals that behind these movements lie serious security developments, with the main objective of restraining Asian powers by entangling them in a new form of multinational terrorism.
Local sources in Panjshir report that al-Qaeda is training around 500 newly recruited fighters—mostly from Arab countries, along with some from Somalia—in both military and ideological fields. These individuals speak Arabic and English, and dedicated terrorist training camps have been set up for them.
At present, al-Qaeda is not only militarily stronger than ever, but also more powerful in the domains of media and psychological warfare. It is even training male and female propaganda teams to maintain the morale of Taliban fighters. Many Taliban members and allied foreign extremist groups oppose the Taliban’s policy of engagement with the international community. Recognizing this discontent, al-Qaeda seeks to prevent the defection of these fighters through psychological operations and religious propaganda—much as it did during the Doha negotiations. Its tactics include narrative-building through Qur’anic verses, promoting the concept of “strategic patience,” and employing online bots to mislead public opinion and deceive foreign intelligence agencies.
The key question, however, is why al-Qaeda and the Taliban have chosen Panjshir—a place once symbolic of anti-terrorist resistance—as their new headquarters. The answer lies in a combination of geographical, security, and strategic factors. Panjshir’s mountainous terrain, with its deep valleys and impassable routes, offers a natural safe haven against both ground and aerial assaults.
The difficulty of accessing the province’s interior, along with the ability to build tunnels and fortified defensive positions, provides natural protection against drone and rocket attacks, making it a formidable stronghold. The province’s historical legacy of resistance against both the Soviets and the Taliban shows that it possesses a local defensive culture and the capacity to organize armed resistance. Its proximity to the northern borders and mountain passes allows al-Qaeda potential escape or supply routes, while its closed social structure makes intelligence penetration extremely difficult.
The presence of leftover weapons and ammunition from the jihad era, the ability to use smuggling routes to supply allied terrorist groups, its strategic location adjacent to Badakhshan, Salang, Nooristan, and Parwan provinces, and its capacity to prevent the emergence of a resistance front by establishing secure camps and hideouts—all combine to make Panjshir a uniquely strategic point for both the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
This choice of Panjshir is not only tactical but also tied to two major strategic objectives:
- A destabilization strategy that benefits terrorist movements and their extra-regional sponsors. Within this framework, the role of al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups as instruments for executing this strategy is of great significance.
- A “reverse-balancing” strategy aimed at pressuring regional powers such as Russia and China by positioning themselves in the closest geographical proximity to their spheres of influence. This strategy, which focuses on drawing the attention of extra-regional powers in Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, also pursues another deceptive and engaging tactic within the geography of northern Afghanistan.
From an international geopolitical perspective, the Taliban and al-Qaeda’s actions in Panjshir could serve as a pretext for greater intervention or pressure by foreign actors such as Iran, Russia, and China in Afghanistan’s affairs. From an information warfare standpoint, al-Qaeda’s use of Panjshir’s closed geography to test new methods of concealment and cyber-warfare represents a new facet of hybrid warfare tactics by non-state actors.
In terms of containing domestic resistance, the Taliban’s growing concern over the resurgence of opposition movements has compelled them to settle al-Qaeda in Panjshir, thereby ensuring the strategic security of Kabul and the Salang Pass against any potential resistance movement.
Thus, Panjshir has transformed from a symbol of resistance into a complex battleground where the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and their international partners not only exploit the geography but also turn it into both a shield and a launchpad for their strategic objectives.
