How do the geopolitical situation in Central Asia and the fate of Afghanistan depend on the "special military operation of Russia in Ukraine"?
Author: Farid Ahmad, editor-in-chief of "Sangar"
All the geopolitical shells and influence that Russia created before 1917, and after the October Revolution by the Bolsheviks until 1991, collapsed with the collapse of the USSR.
Until the early 2000s of this century, Russia was mainly concerned with its own internal problems. In the countries that emerged as a result of the collapse of the USSR, in addition to the Baltic republics and Georgia, Russia within the CIS retained its influence and geopolitical shells to ensure its national security.
Russia made its first geopolitical mistake when (the West, as a result of one of the largest provocations of the century, that is, the terrorist attack on the United States on September 11, 2001, launched a war against the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan) agreed to open its space to the United States and its allies, and also agreed to their cooperation with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus. As a result, the United States and its allies achieved their goals, for the sake of which they committed this provocation with the help of terrorists.
During these years, mainly the republics of Central Asia began to use in their foreign policy the concept of a multi-vector approach, the main goal of which was cooperation with the West. This cooperation was to, with the help of the US and NATO, secure them from Afghan threats and attract more investment for its economy.
Again, the 20-year presence of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan shows that from the very beginning they did not aim to stabilize the situation not only in this country but also in neighboring countries. Their main target was Russia and China. The first goal is to be present in their zones of influence, and the final goal is to capture them.
After leaving Afghanistan, the US and NATO handed over power to the more radical religious movement, the Taliban, which may serve their main purpose. The Taliban movement, organized by Pakistani intelligence in early 1993 in Afghanistan under the project of the Anglo-Saxons, has strongly established itself in the Afghan arena. The Taliban adhere to the Deobandi ideology, founded in the second half of the 19th century in British India with the help of British agents from among local Muslim religious figures. Another example is Saudi Arabia, which has established itself on the ideology of Salafism. The main task of the Salafis is to confront Shiite Iran, another enemy of the Anglo-Saxons in the region.
The world has changed a lot since the collapse of the former Soviet Union in the early 1990s, which left the United States as the only great power in the world. China has become the world's second-largest economy and has strengthened its military potential. Russia, after political and economic stabilization at the end of the last century and the beginning of the 2000s, began to strengthen and restore the lost geopolitical influence around itself and in the world.
The Anglo-Saxons, who considered themselves the only masters of the world after the collapse of the former Union, foresaw these changes from the very beginning and prepared. If initially, the Ukrainian and Afghan projects were two separate geopolitical projects of the West for the development and strengthening of geopolitical influence in the space of influence of Russia, now both are very interconnected and interdependent on each other. After Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai's mysterious flight from the country and the Taliban's takeover on August 15 last year, few believed that the Taliban could hold on to power if foreign aid, which accounted for up to 80 percent of the country's budget, ceased. More than a year has passed, and the Taliban have not only remained in power, but their monetary currency, the afghani, is holding up against foreign currencies, as it was before the Taliban came to power.
This is a great merit of the Anglo-Saxons and their geopolitical partners. According to unconfirmed information, the Taliban monthly receive from the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and other countries in the form of humanitarian and other types of assistance) up to 600 million US dollars per month in cash. Tom West, the US special envoy for Afghanistan, recently said that his country has provided $1.2 billion to the Taliban over the past year. This money went to maintain Taliban power, as well as the army and foreign mercenaries located on the territory of Afghanistan.
The geopolitical influence of Russia in the states of Central Asia has been declining since the early 2000s and is currently very weak for a number of reasons. Firstly, the political and economic cooperation of the countries of the region with the West, especially in the oil and gas industry, caused the appearance of funds in Western banks and offshore zones controlled by the West, and actually turned them into its hostages. Second, various non-governmental organizations, sitting on grants and assistance from Western countries, have actually become the vanguard of Western values and its anti-Russian propaganda in the countries of the region. Thirdly, some economically weak republics are heavily dependent on grants and technical assistance from world financial centers (IMF, World Bank, Asian Bank) controlled by the West.
However, there are also positive factors that somehow keep Russia's influence in the region. This is pro-Russian support and sentiment in the society of these republics. If in Kazakhstan the majority of the population does not support the “SMO of Russia in Ukraine”, then in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, on the contrary, the majority of the population is pro-Russian. Naturally, the main factor here is labor migrants, as well as the growing acquisition of Russian citizenship by people from these republics.
Caricature "Real problems will begin with the" awakening ", 1900 (Russia, England, Germany, Italy, France and Japan are fighting on the body of China. America is watching)
Neighboring the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, the state of Afghanistan has been a field of geopolitical games for more than forty years, first between the West and the former Soviet Union, and now between world geopolitical and regional powers, and still remains as a hotbed of tension in the region. This hearth, created by the hand of the West, mainly the Anglo-Saxons, can explode at any moment and destabilize the entire region. Therefore, the West, in order to control Russia in the Ukrainian project, keeps Russia in suspense with the help of the Afghan project. In case of necessity, that is, the success or failure of the “SMO of Russia in Ukraine”, with the help of this project, it will destabilize the situation in the region and open a second front against Russia.
The Anglo-Saxons' Afghan project is also a deterrent against China's separatist problems in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which borders Afghanistan. An opinion may arise that the Taliban movement, thanks to the political and other support of China and Russia, forced the US and its allies to withdraw from Afghanistan and the Taliban will not go for this provocation.
As they say, the East is a delicate matter. Firstly, the Taliban, as a foreign project, is not independent and the main players in this project are the Anglo-Saxons and Pakistan. The state of Pakistan, artificially created by the British from the very beginning of its formation, until now, is politically and economically dependent and without their support is doomed to failure. The actual real power in this country is in the hands of the military, which are mainly graduates of military universities in the US and the UK.
There have been two leaders in the history of Pakistan who have tried to change their dependence on the West. One died (General Zia-ul-Haq in a plane crash), and the other, after a visit to Moscow on February 23, 2022, before the start of the “SMO of Russia in Ukraine”, was removed from his post with the help of the army (Prime Minister Imranhan). Both were Pashtuns by nationality.
The rapprochement between Pakistan and China, which began even in the 1970s, is of a tactical nature. Both are at war with the same enemy, that is, with India. In addition, Pakistan, which controls the territory of the disputed province of Kashmir with India with a stick, transferred part of the disputed territory to China. Having very close friendly relations with China, at the same time, at the behest of their Western curators, they sheltered many Uyghur militants in their Waziristan, which indicates that these territories are not under their control. Taking into account these factors, the development of geopolitical situations and games in the Central Asian region at this stage is largely related to the situation in Ukraine and has the following directions of development:
Firstly, in case of complete success of the “Special Military Operation of Russia in Ukraine”, there is a very high probability that the Central Asian region will be destabilized by the Taliban and foreign fighters who have taken refuge in Afghanistan in order to open a second front against Russia.
Secondly, in case of the partial success of the “SMO of Russia in Ukraine” in containing Russia, the Anglo-Saxons with the help of these forces will keep the region in tension and work to separate it from Russia and its geopolitical orbit (i.e., the Greater Central Asia project ”).
Thirdly, in the event of the failure of the “SMO of Russia in Ukraine” and the weakening of Russia's influence in the region, the Anglo-Saxons begin to implement their main plan and goal: the creation of a geopolitical belt from the Baltic to Mongolia, which, under the leadership of Great Britain, includes the following states: Great Britain, Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, countries of Central Asia and Mongolia. But even this plan cannot be realized without the help of the Taliban and their foreign terrorist partners. This is the secret of the surrender of Afghanistan in their hands.
At present, in order to strengthen its geopolitical influence, Russia must intensify political and economic cooperation in the countries of Central Asia, including Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the current situation, when sanctions are announced from the West, and Russian companies have limited cooperation with the West, this region is a good space for them both for exports and for investments. Through public organizations (political parties and other public organizations), it is necessary to organize cooperation with similar organizations in the region. In the field of security, to strengthen assistance in the training of personnel for all power structures (the army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, law enforcement agencies, prosecutor's offices, etc.). In the modern world, several military companies have proven that the main success of the big world and regional players in strengthening their geopolitical influence lies in the so-called soft power, and not in the use of the military fist. It can also be noted that until now Central Asia has not been a priority in Russia's foreign policy, and this has become the main factor in the weakening of its geopolitical influence in the region.
