Where is the place of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan in these games?
Author: Abdunosir Nurzad, Analyst
The strategic importance of northern Afghanistan and its proximity to US rival powers has turned this geography into a new field of intelligence rivalry and confrontation between competing powers. Favorable geography, a new military position and places of gathering of international terrorist forces, the previous preparation of public consciousness for the adoption of an extremist worldview, and the presence of hot fronts of national resistance to the monster of terrorism make this field the main one for both the United States and its supporters, as well as for the countries of the Shanghai region. Hence, most of the intelligence human resources are currently working in this geographic area.
Apart from the geographic location of northern Afghanistan, any game of mouse and cat in this region is possible for many years to come. In this regard, there are many examples that this arena was a favorable platform for achieving the strategic goals of the great powers. During the Great Game, both tsarist Russia and England acted here. The reconnaissance games mainly took place in this area, that is, in the north of Afghanistan. Later, with the beginning of the confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States of America and at the height of the Cold War, the north of Afghanistan again became the site of confrontations and operational games between the great powers. At a stage after the end of the war and the withdrawal of the Soviet Union from Afghanistan, this field was considered a suitable platform for the countries of Central Asia to benefit from domestic players. With the presence of America and the existing sensitivity to this presence, many countries in the SCO region have seriously reacted to any activity in the field of security and intelligence. Now, with America gone, the region has once again become a field of conflict and dangerous intelligence and operational games.
If we carefully follow the course of events and the development of the situation, then after 2009 this territory had to be prepared in order for it to be chosen as the future playground. Two-thirds of America's competition with its competitors took place in this geographic area. The sudden takeover of Kunduz by the Taliban and its recapture by the Republic, the memorandum and agreement on the deployment of terrorist groups in Dandi Ghuri, Baghlan province, the transfer of foreign terrorist organizations to the provinces of Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, and Baghlan, all confirm the promotion of this competition. And also in the past, northern Afghanistan has been a necessary intellectual base for extremist groups such as ISIS, Hizb-e-Islami Hekmatyar, Al-Qaeda, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, ISIS, Jamiat Islah, and other foreign-funded organizations that have used religion as a tool and deceived the youth. It should not be forgotten that twenty-one foreign terrorist groups were also involved in this recruitment process. However, the situation in northern Afghanistan is moving towards a proxy war at any moment. This proxy war will have important strategic goals in the region, high costs, and unfortunate consequences. But the important question is why the north of Afghanistan is always a hotbed of intelligence rivalry and there are clear signs of the presence of intelligence organizations? In answer to this question, it should be said that there were several important reasons in this regard, which will be discussed below:
FIRST, during the presence of the Americans, the ideological roots of terrorism in the north were planted, and the ground was created so that when the US is not present in the region, there will always be a reason for them to return and be included in the game and confrontation with rivals. But, on the other hand, there were problems with logistics for the implementation of this project, which slightly slowed down the process of its completion. Measures were taken to facilitate this process under the leadership of the US and the Republican government, but the field was not yet ready for the continued intelligence games and geopolitical contests in the post-American presence in Afghanistan. The plan consisted in the fact that the presence of America in the region was maintained until the completion of activities to implement the various stages of the game;
SECOND, in the past, the north of Afghanistan was a suitable field for the rivalry between the British and Russian tsars, and then a suitable field for the rivalry between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War. From the same platform in the north, assistance was provided to the Basmachi, uprisings in Central Asia, and uprisings against the Bolshevik government. Because the north of Afghanistan has suitable relief for the preparation of a guerrilla war, the training of terrorists and puppets is not a particular problem.
THIRD: However, there are several reasons for northern Afghanistan to be chosen as the playing field for the new intelligence games, one of which is the geography suitable for war, the presence of displaced elements of international terrorists, the presence of the National Resistance Front as the only force needed to neutralize this plan and create a barrier against it.
PROBLEMS OF PROMOTING THIS PROJECT:
FIRST: the geographic remoteness to supply the terrorist fronts, which was later resolved by allowing the Taliban to seize power and create logistical support for this dangerous game. If, for example, the Taliban did not come to power and choose northern Afghanistan as the only playing field in this game, it would be difficult for their terrorist supporters to complete it in the long run. Pakistan, as the top terrorist manager in the region, would not be able to secure supplies in the distant future and the project would fail;
SECONDLY, the northern platform, although the field is suitable for this game, faces problems such as the existence of fronts of resistance. Any terrorist activity will be met with a reaction from two sides: first, the countries of Central Asia with the help of Russia and China, and on the other hand, the fronts of resistance that impede this project, and soon this terrorist plan will have failures in the regional dimension.
THIRD, there is a high likelihood of a confrontation between the countries of the region and the Taliban, who have created favorable strategic, support, and logistical support for terrorist groups. The countries of Central Asia, the CSTO, and the SCO will finally run out of patience and will soon react against the Taliban with the help of national resistance fronts inside Afghanistan, and this reaction is the starting point of the confrontation between the regional powers and the United States and their supporters;
FOURTH: If the third option is implemented, the countries of the region will face the United States, Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar, and other extremist supporters of the Taliban. On the other hand, Russia, Iran, India, and China will create an annular security belt. This will cause these circles to show a security response to the current problems in Afghanistan, and their reaction will be like warming up a battlefield.
OPPORTUNITIES TO ADVANCE THE RESISTANCE FRONT IN THIS GAME
FIRST: the resistance front must make full use of this opportunity. If the resistance continues in its current form for another six months, then there is definitely a possibility that attracts the attention and support of the Shanghai zone and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Supporting the National Resistance Front will actually mean the death of the Taliban and international terrorists in northern Afghanistan;
SECOND: The National Resistance Front should intensify intelligence and information work to collect the necessary information. The spirit of cooperation among the people is high due to the oppression and tyranny of the Taliban. Increasing and investing in human resources is the main reason for success in the intelligence game. This work not only meets the needs of the front on the battlefield against the Taliban and strengthens its strongholds to inflict more damage on the Taliban, but also provides a basis for scoring and building relations with the countries of the Shanghai zone;
THIRDLY, in the midst of this reconnaissance campaign, the mobilization and organization of fronts stretching from Panjshir, Andrab, Kapisa, Badakhshan, and Takhar, new resistance nuclei must be created to confront the Taliban. The creation of urban networks of resistance is a brutal tactic of the Haqqani Network, which has been squeezed by the throat of the Republic for twenty years and has given the Haqqani Network greater strength and ability to conduct operations. This work takes the front out of a purely military situation, using soft influence, propaganda, and intelligence work to strengthen hidden pockets of resistance in the cities. Maintaining contact with secret networks and a hidden core of resistance in Afghanistan's major cities deals a heavy blow to the morale of the Taliban and foreign terrorists.
WHAT WILL BE THE RESULT?
FIRST, the game with the Taliban card is changing and there is a split in the ranks of this group. The brutality of attacks by resistance fronts against the Taliban both on the war fronts and in urban centers, such as targeting leaders and commanders, influential religious figures, Taliban supporters, and social media lobbyists, will make countries in the region, especially SCO members, to be aware of the possibilities of the front. This work shifts the balance and forces the third party to be more active on the ground and play an important role in future developments;
SECONDLY, a split in the seemingly unified structure of the Taliban is inevitable. Differences between the Haqqanis, the Qatari group and Mullah Yaqub's Kandahar supporters over the distribution of state resources and wealth, mines, drug trafficking, and how to distribute money provided by supporting countries are increasing day by day. This will cause other terrorist groups to lose morale when they see the disagreements between the Taliban, and the victory will go to the fronts of the resistance.
Thirdly, if not only the north of Afghanistan, but also territories beyond its borders, such as the Wakhan, the border with Tajikistan, the border with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which are the gateway to Russia, and security and stability in Central Asia are directly and inextricably linked with them, will be destabilized, the Taliban will lose control over these areas. This rebalancing of military and intelligence bases in northern Afghanistan will in fact become the starting point for a sharp change in the situation in favor of the front of resistance;
FOURTH, in addition to creating new strongholds, expanding the zone of resistance, and creating urban cores and secret battle groups, the resistance front must also pay attention to its intellectual work and increase its soft power. On this front, soft power and intellectual work are very influential, and the role of cultural figures, writers, and analysts who have points of contact with the front and consider the Taliban their enemy. Intelligence work and a military campaign require balanced thinking and the creation of coordination between political thinking, intelligence work, and mobility on the battlefield.
