Analysis of Regional Geopolitical Relations: Tensions Between the Taliban and Pakistan, the Future of Afghanistan, and the Role of Russia and the West in Central Asian Security
By Dr. Khalideen Ziaee, Head of the Educational Discourse Think Tank of the Afghan Nation, especially for "Sangar"
The geopolitical dynamics in South and Central Asia have undergone significant transformations, particularly with the escalating tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, U.S. efforts to curtail Iran’s influence in Afghanistan, and strategic shifts in the policies of Russia and Western nations. This paper analyzes current trends, explores potential scenarios for the future of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia, and examines the implications for regional stability.
Introduction
The contemporary world is witnessing profound shifts in power equations directly impacting countries in South Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia. The roles of major powers, including the United States, Russia, and China, are pivotal in altering the balance of power in these regions. Amidst these changes, increasing tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, Western endeavors to reshape Afghanistan, and potential interventions in Iran have added complexity to the regional landscape. This paper focuses on three primary axes:
1 - Escalating Tensions Between the Taliban and Pakistan and the Strategic Objectives of the West;
2 - The Crisis in Afghanistan and Potential Future Scenarios;
3 - The Role of Russia, Geopolitical Agreements, and Central Asian Security;
1) Escalating Tensions Between the Taliban and Pakistan and the Strategic Objectives of the West
Historically perceived as allies, the relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan has deteriorated, especially following increased attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) within Pakistani territory. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of supporting terrorist groups, leading to diminished security cooperation between the two parties.
The United States and its Western allies have adopted a dual strategy exploiting these tensions: on one hand, they aim to keep the Taliban in opposition to Pakistan; on the other, they utilize extremist groups like the TTP to exert pressure on Islamabad. The ultimate goal of this policy is to weaken Pakistan, neutralize its nuclear capabilities, and potentially fragment the country into multiple entities.
In the event of a broader regional conflict, particularly if the U.S. were to attack Iran leading to its collapse, the likelihood of a geopolitical upheaval throughout the region increases. In such a scenario, countries like Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Iran could face fragmentation and reconfiguration, fundamentally altering the global order.
2) The Crisis in Afghanistan and Potential Future Scenarios
Afghanistan’s political and security crisis persists, with the U.S. striving to distance the Taliban government from Iranian influence. One plausible scenario involves the physical removal or ousting of Mullah Hibatullah, the Taliban leader, through natural death, illness, or exile. This move would aim to weaken the Islamic Emirate and bring it under U.S. control.
The regional resistance axis led by Iran, encompassing countries like Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine, is a focal point for U.S. efforts to contain Iranian influence in Afghanistan. Weakening this axis would enable the U.S. to implement its policies in the region without significant opposition.
The future of Afghanistan can be envisioned through three potential scenarios:
1 - Formation of an Inclusive Government: The U.S. might compel the Taliban to compromise with other political groups to establish a comprehensive government.
2 - Establishment of a Popular Government Based on Elections and Public Participation: A revival of democratic processes could lead Afghanistan toward a government grounded in general elections.
3 - Partition of Afghanistan into Northern and Southern Regions: Continued crisis may result in Afghanistan splitting into two independent entities with capitals in Kabul and Kandahar.
3) The Role of Russia, Geopolitical Agreements, and Central Asian Security
The security of Central Asia, particularly in countries like Tajikistan, is directly linked to the policies of Russia and the West concerning global crises. With ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Afghanistan, Taiwan, and Iran, Russia’s approach to these crises will be decisive.
Two scenarios can be considered for the future of Central Asia:
1 - Russia’s Cooperation with the West: If Russia adopts a neutral stance in these regions and collaborates with the West, the security of Tajikistan’s borders will be ensured, and terrorist groups will be contained. In such circumstances, the focus of terrorist threats would shift from Central Asia toward Pakistan.
2 - Intensification of Conflicts and Geopolitical Rivalries: Should Russia seek to expand its influence and directly confront the West in these areas, the West may pursue destabilization policies in Central Asia. This would result in heightened insecurity along the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border, with crises potentially spreading to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
If this trajectory continues, the West may attempt to fragment Russia through the proliferation of internal unrest based on ethnicity, language, and religion, reducing the country to a weakened state akin to the Third World. This strategy could lead to widespread instability in Russia’s Muslim-populated regions, including areas from Central Asian countries to Tatarstan.
Conclusion
Current developments in South and Central Asia indicate that the region stands on the brink of profound geopolitical changes. The intensifying discord between the Taliban and Pakistan, Western policies in Afghanistan, and the rivalry between Russia and the United States in Central Asia have altered power dynamics. Without proper management of these developments, scenarios such as regional countries' fragmentation, increased insecurity, and the emergence of broader crises become plausible. Therefore, regional nations must deeply comprehend these trends and formulate appropriate strategies to preserve their territorial integrity and national security.
