Are Russia, China, and Iran ready for the post-american era?
By Abdool Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitical researcher, especially for Sangar
In a situation where the attempt to change the nature of the international system has become one of the agendas of the great powers in the arena of global competition, the United States is faced with an undesirable coalition called the “Eastern Axis”, which is struggling to become an alternative to the future of the international order. The Asian Axis mainly refers to the alliance between Russia, Iran, China, and to some extent North Korea, which oppose and counteract American policies and have included de-Americanization in their agenda.
This axis has good military, economic, and political potential, and also has the necessary geographical and geopolitical conditions for this. With nuclear weapons and significant economic power, it is a possible alternative to the future of the world order. Among them are China and Russia, two military and economic powers that are also members of the UN Security Council and use their veto power against American policies. In this article, I will point out ten major problems that hinder the effectiveness of this axis and if not addressed, could lead to the collapse of the axis and the failure to form a post-transitional order.
1 - There is no strategic alliance on this axis. This means that a true ideological and functional unity has not yet been formed. Instead, the focus is on strengthening a temporary coalition that was formed only to confront the United States and its policies. A choice made out of сompulsion, which is one of the key points in determining its weaknesses;
2 - Forming a temporary coalition on this axis pursues the sole purpose of opposing American policy and following the trend of de-Americanization. This coalition's formation was based on a reaction, not a proactive approach. At the same time, this coalition may disintegrate as a result of the post-competition phase with the US, creating a post-polar order in which the true place of the alliance will be visible.
3 - This coalition, formed in the form of an axis, has not yet presented any alternative ideology capable of replacing the US. This means that in the days after the collapse of the American order in this area, there will be virtually no alternative, and the post-polar world will be in a state of identity confusion.
4 - The members of this axis face military, economic, and political constraints that benefit others. These constraints create difficulties in replacing the American order on this axis in the current international situation when the world is on the verge of a transition from a unipolar-multipolar to a post-polar order.
5 - This axis is unwilling and unprepared to bear the world's costs of a post-American order. Interestingly, this order wants to realize transformation under the shadow of American values, free trade under the shadow of global trade based on Western liberal values, and to achieve development and political power. While the philosophy and character of its active essence are to oppose these Western values led by the United States;
6 - This axis is pessimistic about the post-American world. It is afraid, and the fear caused by the absence of a strong America is always clearly visible in its actions and views as a key factor in the lack of sufficient efforts to qualitatively transform the nature of the international system. That is, the terrifying nightmare of the post-American world has become the main obstacle to forming a strategic alliance among the members of this axis. Therefore, a serious attempt to completely replace the current American order is still clearly visible in the policies of this axis;
7 - None of the members is ready to take responsibility in this area. Each tries to protect itself while pursuing its own economic, political, and security interests. Interestingly, the members of this axis consider this task possible and feasible only under the protection of the American liberal order.
8 - This axis has not yet been able to acquire an identity similar to Western values, such as free market democracy, support for allies, and the formation of its own NATO. The only characteristic feature of this axis is state authoritarianism, which contributes to the consolidation of power of the current leaders of these countries;
9 - This axis, in a functional and intellectual incoherence, is trying to redefine the post-American international order in opposite directions. No coordinated and organized reaction that could point to a single pole emerging from the formation of this axis is observed. Thus, in this regard, it can be said with certainty that the problems in the functioning and policy of this axis have prevented the formation of a real strategic alliance for de-Americanization and the creation of an alternative to it;
10 - This axis has failed to reconcile differences over geography, geopolitical competition with the West and the United States, natural resources, and the roadmap for its global dominance on the path to rapprochement and mutual understanding. In addition, the heterogeneity of the political regimes that have emerged in these countries, their perception of modern world politics, and their opportunistic view of international realities will inevitably become an arena of confrontation between the members of this axis.
Hence, the Eastern Axis faces serious functional, political, and ideological challenges in confronting the American order. Especially in the situation where the United States is trying to create a rift in this axis to prevent the formation of a real and strategic alliance among its members, which may be potential competitors of the United States, the existence of these problems may become a functional and structural weakness in the arena of global competition for this axis. Meanwhile, security and political and economic interdependence are other factors in the inability and problems of this axis to confront the American order, which somewhat complicates the transition to a post-polar order.
