The Hidden U.S.–Russia Game Behind Taliban Recognition
By Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, exclusively for “Sangar”
Original article: اعترافِ بیصدا
Russia has officially recognized the Taliban. China, too, engages with the group in a manner resembling diplomatic relations, closely coordinating with it to pursue its political, economic, and security interests. Iran, aligned with the Kandahar circle, has gained unprecedented influence over the situation. Pakistan and the Central Asian countries, motivated by their own security and economic interests, maintain frequent contacts with Kabul.
So why is it that the United States—after paving the way for the Taliban’s return to power and providing billions of dollars in aid over the past four years to keep the regime afloat—now refuses to recognize the group, unlike Russia?
For many observers, this may seem like a geopolitical game between Russia and China, with the Taliban merely being used as a tool. But the truth is more complex. With deep intelligence and security penetration, the United States plays a far more decisive role in steering the Taliban to serve its own interests. At a higher level, support for the Taliban and the creation of ongoing insecurity in Afghanistan are part of tacit agreements between major powers like Russia and the U.S.
Much like a diplomatic volleyball match, the U.S. sets the ball for Russia, and vice versa, ensuring mutual interests through the Taliban’s presence. Russia’s recognition of the Taliban likely didn’t happen without U.S. awareness or approval. The two powers have reached strategic understandings on many issues—from Ukraine to the Middle East and Afghanistan.
Hence, the Taliban’s growing opportunities are not a sign of their intelligence or capacity, but rather the result of a quiet consensus between Washington and Moscow. The recognition by Russia was a calculated zigzag maneuver, with the next steps left for the U.S. to carry out. Washington’s role under this agreement includes ensuring monthly cash infusions for the Taliban regime, creating noise on the global stage about sanctions, and laying the groundwork for Russia’s next moves.
By withholding formal recognition of the Taliban, the U.S. tries to restore its damaged legitimacy after its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. At the same time, Russia uses the moment to expand its geopolitical influence in Central Asia and the broader region—something not entirely against U.S. interests.
By offering this concession to Moscow, Washington effectively strengthens the Taliban’s position and deflects global pressure from the group. Recognition by Russia blurs the narrative so deeply that the world begins shifting its focus from the Taliban’s terrorist identity to a more analytical lens on “ground realities.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. puts on symbolic gestures and democratic postures to maintain the illusion of moral high ground—while in reality, it is orchestrating a dangerous game with the Taliban as its geopolitical pawn. Washington claims that non-recognition is a strategic move to reduce threats to national security, but in truth, it is creating the conditions to distance itself from direct control over the group while preserving the benefits.
America seeks to appear as a peace-loving, law-abiding actor, even though it has continued weekly cash transfers of $40 million to the Taliban regime before and after its recognition by Russia.
For Afghans, it makes no real difference whether the Taliban is recognized by the U.S. or not. The group came to power through Washington’s planning and has been kept there through its support. Despite widespread international condemnation of Taliban atrocities—especially against women and civilians—aid has never stopped.
Formal recognition of the Taliban is a significant political concession that the U.S. isn’t yet ready to give—unless the Taliban dramatically changes its behavior, takes a more cautious approach toward China, curtails the influence of U.S. rivals like Iran within its power structure, and addresses U.S. security concerns.
Russia’s recognition should be viewed as an individual political maneuver. Afghanistan remains a volatile arena, primed to ignite a regional conflict. Terrorism—hidden but potent—is becoming a powerful non-state force within Afghanistan. With hundreds of jihadist schools, millions of impoverished and radicalized youths, ignorance, resistance to science, and a deep cultural rejection of modern development, Afghanistan has become fertile ground for multiple nations’ security agendas.
With all these advantages and tools at hand, the U.S. has no need to shoulder the burden of a despised terrorist regime. Even non-recognition can serve both sides well. The Taliban, in return, is offering security services to the U.S. to ensure its continued rule—made possible by the steady flow of foreign cash.
