Regional and global competitions will not leave Afghanistan alone.
Author: Ahmad Saidi, Afghanistan and regional analyst (Switzerland), especially for “Sangar”
This article is an analysis, I leave the judgment to you. If someone wants to analyze the current situation and the future of Afghanistan comprehensively, he should not forget the role of regional and supra-regional players such as the United States, China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, India, and the Central Asian countries. With this assessment, he can provide an accurate analysis.
During his election campaign, US President Donald Trump said that the Bagram airfield in Afghanistan should have belonged to us, but now it is being used by our rival, China. After coming to power, Trump also warned that our weapons and military equipment, which are now in the hands of the Taliban, must be returned, and the Bagram airfield must be under our control.
Now the question is whether Trump’s wish will be realized in practice or not. Meanwhile, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that handing over Bagram Airfield and military equipment to the United States is an impossible and impractical dream.
The United States and Competition with China in Afghanistan
Trump's policies are largely based on US national interests and aim to compete with China. He has always tried to limit China's influence in strategic regions, including Afghanistan. His reference to Bagram Airfield and its use by China reflects Washington's concerns about China's growing power in the region. If the US wants to regain control of the airport, it will have to pursue a more aggressive policy toward the Taliban, which could lead to increased tensions in the region.
The Taliban and American Weapons
The remaining American weapons and ammunition in Afghanistan are now in the hands of the Taliban. This equipment could become both a threat to American interests and an instrument of internal Taliban control. The main question is whether the Taliban will use these weapons to expand their power in the region. So far, US policy has focused on economic pressure and sanctions, but these measures alone may not be effective.
China's Role and Regional Competition
China, as an economic and military power, is trying to increase its influence in Afghanistan, especially through projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Afghanistan's airport and the country's natural resources are of strategic importance to China. Any US attempt to retake the airport or contain China will intensify the geopolitical rivalry between the two powers.
The Future US Approach to Afghanistan
Cutting off economic aid to Afghanistan is a maximum pressure strategy, but unless replaced by sustainable political solutions, this policy could push Afghanistan further toward China and Russia. If the United States wants to maintain its influence in Afghanistan, it needs to find a balance between military, diplomatic, and economic pressure.
Overall, US policy toward Afghanistan in the current circumstances appears uncertain and fragmented. If this trend continues, the Taliban could gradually consolidate its power and, with foreign support (such as from China), challenge U.S. policy. To achieve this outcome, the United States would need to either engage the Taliban directly or find a way to reduce China’s influence in Afghanistan. Both options would require difficult and costly solutions.
Iran's Role in Afghanistan
Due to its border with Afghanistan and cultural, linguistic, and religious similarities, Iran has always sought to maintain its influence in Afghanistan. Relations between Iran and the Taliban have improved in recent years. With the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the decline of Western influence, Iran has attempted to improve relations with the Taliban. Tehran has recognized the Taliban as a real player in Afghanistan and has even used them to protect its interests from the US presence in the region. This cooperation has mainly been in the areas of economics, border security, and the fight against groups such as ISIS.
Iran is also one of Afghanistan's most important economic partners and contributes to the country's economic growth through the export of goods, fuel, and services. Iran has also hosted millions of Afghan refugees and has used this issue as a political lever in its interactions with the Afghan governments and the Taliban.
However, relations between Iran and the US in Afghanistan have always been difficult. Iran views the US presence in Afghanistan as a serious threat to its national security and regional influence. After the withdrawal of American troops, Iran was able to play a more effective role in Afghanistan.
Pakistan's Role in Afghanistan
Pakistan has always sought to maintain its traditional influence in Afghanistan by supporting the Taliban. Border security and competition with India are top priorities for Pakistan. The country is seeking to strengthen its relations with the Taliban to maintain its influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan is also concerned about instability in Afghanistan and its impact on the security situation at its borders.
India's Role in Afghanistan
India is actively trying to expand its influence in Afghanistan. The country is trying to prevent threats from Pakistan and the Taliban through investments in various infrastructure projects and diplomatic relations with Afghan governments. By strengthening its presence in Afghanistan, India aims to counter Pakistan's influence and prevent the spread of terrorism in the region.
Russia's Role in Afghanistan
Russia plays an important role in the future of Afghanistan through the Central Asian countries. The country is trying to maintain regional stability due to its close borders and concerns about the spread of extremism. Russia has increased security and defense cooperation with Central Asian countries such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to prevent the spread of extremist groups such as ISIS. Russia is also trying to maintain its influence in Afghanistan by engaging with the Taliban on a limited basis and by impeding US and NATO advances in the region.
The Role of Central Asian Countries in Afghanistan
Central Asian countries such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are more concerned with regional stability and countering extremism. These countries are seeking to strengthen economic and military cooperation with Afghanistan to prevent the spread of terrorism while protecting their interests in the region.
Afghanistan's Outlook
Ultimately, Afghanistan will continue to be an arena of intense competition between various global and regional players. Countries such as the US, China, Iran, Pakistan, and India are seeking to achieve their own goals in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the people of Afghanistan will continue to face security and economic challenges. The future of this country depends on difficult decisions that require international cooperation and sustainable political solutions.
Overall, it can be said that the rivalry between these countries will not leave Afghanistan alone. There are still concerns that Afghanistan will again become a victim of regional and supra-regional rivalries, and these challenges and rivalries may increase antagonism and competition among the Taliban leadership.
