What is driving Islamabad’s urgency?
Author: Rahmatullah Nabil, former head of Afghanistan’s National Security Directorate
From the recent trips of Pakistan’s civilian and military officials to Washington and closed-door meetings, as well as their coincidence with “public displays” on the international stage between American and Pakistani authorities, it is clear that Islamabad is once again attempting to revive the project of “engineered instability in Afghanistan”; a project that, as in the past, is intended to serve as a lever for spreading instability into Central Asia and the eastern borders of Iran.
However, what makes the situation different this time is the region’s fresh and coordinated understanding of Pakistan’s role and intentions. Unlike previous years, today neither Central Asia is in a security vacuum, nor are Iran, China, India, and Russia oblivious to the situation in Afghanistan and the region; none of these countries will easily allow Afghanistan to become a field for Pakistan’s and its allies’ intelligence games once again.
Informed regional security sources report unusual movements in the Mastung region of Balochistan, Malakand in Bajaur, and the Waziristan areas; regions reportedly used for the stationing and training of units linked to ISIS-Khorasan. Islamabad’s plan apparently envisions using these networks as tools of pressure on the Taliban while simultaneously serving as a “bargaining chip” with Washington and even regional players; in other words, creating a threat and then offering its containment.
However, it appears that this time the region has gotten ahead of the situation. There is evidence that some regional actors, including Iran, India, and Russia, aim to ensure that if these centers become operational, the scope of conflict shifts from the Durand Line areas into Pakistani territory. Independent sources even mention the possibility of equipping the Taliban regime with unmarked drones, intended to prevent the expansion of the “rented instability project.”
Meanwhile, India has reactivated its involvement in the Afghan issue, maintaining continuous intelligence contacts with Kabul, and the secret visits of Chinese security delegations to Afghanistan — the latest on Thursday, October 23 — indicate growing concern among Asian powers about Pakistan’s true intentions. Russia’s accelerated rapprochement with the Taliban is also likely informed by prior intelligence and understanding of regional destabilization plans executed through Pakistan and its allies. China, especially after heavy investments and subsequent repeated attacks on its projects and forces in Pakistan, as well as covert negotiations with the U.S., has concluded that Islamabad is no longer a reliable partner but a persistent source of instability.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s domestic situation also does not favor the implementation of such a project: economic crisis, capital flight, collapse of political legitimacy, rifts between military and civilian institutions, and the rise in attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other groups, which have joined an unwritten coalition against the government — all of these indicate that the country is facing internal governance weaknesses like never before. In this context, playing the card of Afghan instability and turning it into a lever for regional destabilization could be the last, yet most dangerous, bet for Pakistan itself.
In other words, this time Pakistan is sinking into a swamp of its own making. Years of playing a double game with Washington, using proxy groups instrumentally, and exporting crises to others have now backfired. Falling into this swamp not only intensifies internal instability but also allows regional and global actors to exploit Islamabad’s confusion to their advantage.
There is also a possibility that, with the increase in terrorist attacks and rising tensions, the issue of Pakistan’s nuclear security will once again appear on the agenda of international circles, including the UN Security Council — especially after the conclusion of Iran’s nuclear case, which may draw global attention to the risk of nuclear weapons in the hands of an unstable and irresponsible government.
Neither the region nor Pakistan is the same as it was two decades ago. The new balance of power in Asia will no longer allow a country armed with terror tools, proxy shelters, and ambiguous policies to hold the future of regional peace and stability hostage.
This time, if the fire of instability flares up, its flames will first engulf those who ignited it.
