What new trap has the West set for the Eastern axis?
By Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, exclusively for Sangar
The United States, with Pakistan’s cooperation, brought the Taliban to power, while Russia, Iran, and China have engaged in political and security interactions with this group. India, Turkey, and the Arab countries have also maintained relations with the Taliban. Today, the U.S. sends the Taliban cash every month. Iran provides them with advisory and consultative assistance; China supports them politically and economically; and Russia has de facto recognized them.
Meanwhile, Pakistan appears to be angry with the Taliban and, due to attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has entered into verbal and media confrontation with Kabul. However, in reality, the Taliban are a product of Pakistan’s ideology and security system. It was on this foundation that they evolved into a full-fledged political and religious movement.
Nevertheless, today India has invited the Taliban to Delhi and has expressed its willingness to cooperate with them. Turkey and the Arab countries are attempting to act as mediators between the Taliban and Islamabad while, in coordination with the United States, advancing a new diplomatic scenario.
Now this game has entered a new phase, marked by suspicious intelligence movements following explosions in India and Pakistan. The two South Asian hegemons have found themselves on a path of unpredictable confrontation, and it remains unclear what their next step will be.
By closing the doors of negotiation with Pakistan, the Taliban appear ready to enter a new stage of the game. This stage, in fact, is the trap the West has laid for the Eastern axis — a game of drawing the East into multi-layered Western tactics.
The West seeks, through parallel moves in Central Asia and Afghanistan, to open two new fronts against the East. These fronts are intended to create political and security challenges for Russia and China.
In Central Asia, the third phase of the “New Great Game” has begun: encouraging regional countries to join the encirclement chain of Iran, China, and Russia; fomenting artificial tensions in South Asia; activating American operations in the Middle East, South America, and Africa — all while Russia steadily advances in Ukraine and Europe’s crisis deepens day by day.
On a global scale, the three centers of power — the East, the West, and Europe — are reassessing their international instruments to preserve or expand their influence. If one of them falls out of the game, the world’s balance, as well as its political and economic stability, will undergo a fundamental transformation.
Therefore, each axis strives, through geographic repositioning, the activation of non-state networks, narrative warfare, and the exploitation of security crises, to preserve its share in the global center of power.
However, the tensions among the Taliban, India, and Pakistan will influence the future of South and North Asia more than anything else. Depending on their proximity to or distance from Islamabad and New Delhi, the Taliban can play a decisive role in destabilizing the region, relying on radical groups such as al-Qaeda, ISIS-Khorasan, and extremist networks across Central Asia and the Middle East. This scenario could become a new tool for complicating the security situation along the borders of the Eastern axis.
Nevertheless, the Eastern axis has so far demonstrated strategic patience and restraint, avoiding hasty reactions toward Afghanistan. On the other hand, the West has not seriously attempted over the past four years to limit or suppress the Taliban, as it uses this regime — devoid of public support — as an instrument for long-term control over Afghanistan. Yet sooner or later, this process will provoke a response from the East.
Today, the Taliban stand at a sensitive juncture in their history: either they will hand over the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to Islamabad and move toward strengthening ISIS and al-Qaeda — thereby becoming part of the West’s regional destabilization project — or, by shifting priorities, they will begin a dual game between India and the Eastern axis.
They face a difficult choice, for escaping the current situation cannot be achieved through simple decisions. The Taliban have proven their capability in warfare, but they lack the art of diplomacy and crisis management. The future of Afghanistan and the entire region depends on how the Taliban will emerge from this dangerous impasse — with political wisdom or by falling into the multi-layered power game of global forces.
