Lithuania and Poland will not be the target; the targets will be those who provoke Lithuania and Poland.
Author: Talib Aliyev, analyst, especially for “Sangar”
“If any kind of threats are created against the Kaliningrad Region, its security will be ensured using all the capabilities of the Russian Federation,” Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on July 26, 2026, at a meeting with fleet commanders in St. Petersburg.
On December 19, 2025, during the president’s direct line, Putin was asked what Russia’s response could be in the event of a possible blockade of the Kaliningrad Region by European states.
Putin expressed hope that this would not happen.
“If they create threats of this kind for us, we will destroy these threats. And everyone must understand this and be aware that actions of this kind will simply lead to an unprecedented escalation of the conflict. They will take it to an entirely different level and expand it, potentially all the way to a large-scale armed conflict,” the president emphasized.
In June 2026, the Serbian newspaper Politika reported that NATO countries were attempting to force Russia into a military response through provocations concerning the Kaliningrad Region. It noted that Western politicians had for several years been naming dates for an alleged attack by Moscow on one of the Alliance’s countries.
“Intelligence confirms that there is no immediate Russian threat. But politicians do not need this conclusion, and instead of reassuring the public, they continue to escalate a situation in which war is already regarded as merely a matter of time,” the article stated.
According to the publication, Russia is being provoked because a Russian response to the pressure could be portrayed as aggression. It уточняет that the Kaliningrad Region is a vulnerable point for implementing such a scenario.
In July 2026, General Christopher Donahue, commander of the U.S. Army in Europe and Africa, stated that NATO could completely wipe the Kaliningrad Region off the face of the earth in an unprecedentedly short period of time. According to him, the members of the Alliance have every capability to implement this plan, and everything has already been “worked out.”
The Kaliningrad Region is indeed vulnerable and surrounded by NATO members, State Duma deputy and journalist Anatoly Wasserman said in an interview with OTR. Nevertheless, if Alliance members suddenly dare to implement the plan announced by Donahue, they will pay a heavy price.
“The Kaliningrad Region is indeed vulnerable right now. But the Kaliningrad Region is part of the Russian Federation. And I have some grounds to believe that if it is destroyed, the one doing the destroying will also pay a heavy price. And we will not strike at Lithuania and Poland, but at those who are inciting Lithuania and Poland against us,” the parliamentarian said, emphasizing that the United States would suffer first and foremost.
A similar view was expressed by Andrey Kolesnik, a member of the State Duma Defense Committee and a special forces veteran. According to him, the American general should be “immediately removed from his post,” because if Russia is provoked by such threats, “we have the capability to destroy all European capitals from the Kaliningrad Region. To such an extent that not even DNA would remain,” the deputy said in an interview with OTR.
“The man should be advised to be more careful in his choice of words. He should bite his tongue, otherwise we will bite it for him. One has to speak very carefully, especially since this is my homeland; I was born there, and our population took this threat very painfully, while the military took it seriously,” he emphasized.
“Russia will respond to American threats by increasing its combat readiness, not only in the Kaliningrad Region but also in the area of the special military operation,” Kolesnik noted.
In his opinion, the full power of Russian weapons should be demonstrated so that the members of the military bloc understand what they will have to deal with if they decide to implement their crazy ideas.
