Now is the best opportunity for the parties to start peace talks. And this is the only reasonable way out of this situation.
Author: Talib Aliyev, analyst
For nine months now, the whole world has been watching Ukrainian events that have an impact on global issues, including food and energy security. The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine took an unexpected turn when Russian troops left the city of Kherson and entrenched themselves on the left bank of the Dnieper, abandoning bloody battles. So what exactly caused such an "unpopular" decision of the military leadership of the Russian Federation?
An analysis of Moscow's actions indicates that the RF Armed Forces are currently betting on maintaining the combat capability of their military units. If we compare the combat capabilities of Russia and Ukraine, then obviously the great advantage of the Russian Federation in all respects. The same is true for human resources. The population of Russia as of January 1, 2022, is 145,478,000 people, and Ukraine - is 41,167,336 people. But in the course of hostilities, about 50 foreign states provide military and financial assistance to Kyiv, which to a certain extent equalizes the chances of the parties, and this can be seen on the battlefield.
As a result, we can confidently assume that the side that has more military and human resources will win the conflict. Russia is increasingly involved in the armed conflict, gradually increasing the momentum, declaring partial mobilization, adopting the necessary economic laws to strengthen the military-industrial complex, establishing parallel imports of the necessary products, etc. There are still reserves, a lot of them.
In turn, Ukraine is de facto a bankrupt state, because. spends more than half (57.9%) of its own income on servicing current debts and is forced to take out new loans. Today, almost half (40%) of the Ukrainian budget is formed from foreign credits and loans, next year the share of this financing will increase to 58%. The public debt is $105.39 billion, which corresponds to 68% of the GDP. This figure will rise to 86% next year. There are no reserves.
At the same time, contradictions are intensifying among Europeans on the issue of providing financial, military, medical, and other types of assistance to the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Rising food and fuel prices are felt in all developed countries. There is a reduction in social spending. In July 2022, the Swiss government opposed the admission of wounded Ukrainian soldiers for treatment in local clinics. After that, the Finnish Migration Service forbade the evacuation of a group of wounded Ukrainian soldiers to its territory, and those soldiers who have already entered for treatment complained about a deterioration in their attitude compared to February-March of this year.
Citizens of European countries are also outraged by the problems that have arisen with the conduct of planned operations, which are postponed due to the provision of emergency assistance to the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Also in Germany, a campaign is gaining momentum for independent media and private bloggers to investigate the misuse of budgetary funds and the presence of a corruption component in compensation to private medical companies for the treatment of military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, against the backdrop of the events taking place today in Ukraine, the "business" of illegal trade in donor organs, on which unscrupulous doctors earn and profit from wealthy but sick Europeans, has received a second wind.
Western countries are already tired of the war and, for political reasons, are not ready to prolong the suffering of their populations. Russia and Ukraine are now in a battle of resources - whoever has more of them will prevail. But Kyiv without the help of the West will not be able to resist Moscow. For this reason, Russia, on its own initiative, withdrew troops from Kherson to save its human resources, which will still be significantly needed in the future. The only question that remains open is: will the West continue pumping arms and money into Ukraine?
On the other hand, now is the best opportunity for the parties, especially for Ukraine, to start peace talks. And this is the only reasonable way out of this situation. Otherwise, very serious and unforeseen consequences await them.
