The Taliban not only did not change their ideology, but also created a platform for the creation of a multinational terrorist army.
Author: Dr. Khalideen Ziyai, Head of the Educational Discourse Think Tank for the Afghan Nation
Original article: الگوی سوریه؛ ارتش تروریستی در افغانستان
Emerging Terrorist Threats in Afghanistan and Their Geopolitical Implications for the Security of Neighboring Countries and China: A Comparative Analysis with the Syrian Model
Recent developments in the region—especially in Afghanistan following the Taliban’s return to power—reveal a worrying pattern of the growth and integration of transnational jihadist groups into governmental and military structures. Drawing lessons from the Syrian experience and the involvement of international powers, particularly the United States, there is substantial evidence indicating the launch of a project aimed at incorporating, equipping, and empowering foreign jihadist groups within the Taliban’s military framework. This initiative could soon pose serious threats to the political stability and national security of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, including China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Adopting a comparative approach and strategic data analysis, this paper seeks to sound the alarm for regional stakeholders and warn against a passive engagement policy with the Taliban.
Introduction:
Following the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s resurgence, the region’s security landscape has entered a complex and uncertain phase. While some neighboring countries and regional powers have attempted to pragmatically engage with the Taliban, signs suggest that such interaction may soon bring significant security threats. The Taliban’s pattern of aligning with foreign terrorist and jihadist groups—especially Uyghurs, Chechens, Uzbeks, and Arabs—bears striking similarities to the scenario previously enacted in Syria.
- The Syrian Model: Integrating Jihadists into the Military Structure
In recent years, the United States, aiming to maintain influence in Syria, has implicitly approved the new leadership’s plan to incorporate thousands of former foreign fighters into the national army structure. According to a Reuters report (June 1, 2025), around 3,500 foreign fighters, mainly Chinese Uyghurs and citizens of Syria’s neighboring states, are to be integrated into the newly established “84th Division of the Syrian Army.” This division comprises both Syrian and foreign elements and, with tacit approval from Washington, is being merged into the official military system.
Thomas Barrack, the U.S. Special Representative for Syrian Affairs, commented on the initiative: “There is a sort of understanding, provided there’s transparency.” He further added that maintaining these fighters within a state-controlled structure is better than allowing them to roam in an unregulated, unmonitored environment.
- A Similar Trend in Afghanistan: Integration of Foreign Jihadists into Taliban Structures
Field evidence, reports from credible sources, and strategic analyses indicate that a similar model is currently unfolding in Afghanistan. The Taliban have gradually begun recruiting and organizing foreign jihadist fighters within their security and military structures. These groups—mostly comprised of citizens from China (Uyghurs), Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Chechnya, Pakistan, and various Arab countries—have now settled in several Afghan provinces, with some reportedly holding mid- and high-level command positions.
Analyses show that this project is not only proceeding in silence but with covert backing from some Western powers, especially the United States. The primary goal appears to be the formation of a transnational proxy force based in Afghanistan, to be used at an opportune time to pressure regional powers like China and Russia, and to destabilize anti-Western regimes.
- Potential Implications for Afghanistan’s Neighbors
If this process continues and regional countries remain negligent, a future similar to the Syrian crisis may unfold across Central and South Asia. The possible consequences include:
a) Direct Threat to China’s National Security
Uyghur separatists embedded in Taliban structures could soon be deployed as tools to destabilize China’s Xinjiang province.
b) Infiltration into Central Asia
Jihadist groups from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Chechnya may use Afghanistan’s porous borders to launch terrorist operations across Central Asian republics.
c) Pressure on Iran and Pakistan
Iran may face jihadist threats from both its eastern and western borders, while Pakistan could suffer renewed sectarian violence, undermining its internal stability.
d) Regime Destabilization
Historically, the U.S. has employed proxy terrorist groups to topple undesired regimes. This model could deliberately be replicated to undermine specific regional governments.
- Engagement or Appeasement? A Strategic Miscalculation
Several regional actors, particularly China, Iran, and Russia, have in recent months sought to engage pragmatically with the Taliban. However, this engagement—conducted without firm security and human rights preconditions—is now proving to be a strategic miscalculation. Not only have the Taliban failed to reform their ideological foundations, but they have also facilitated the growth of transnational terrorism that gravely threatens regional interests.
Conclusion and Recommendations:
Ignoring the dangerous trends in Afghanistan equates to playing into a scenario orchestrated by Western powers. Countries that fail to take the threat of international jihadism in Afghanistan seriously will soon find themselves victims of the very policy they pursued under the illusion of protecting their interests.
Recommendations:
1 - Establish a regional intelligence and security coalition to monitor jihadist movements within Afghanistan;
2 - Suspend or revise engagement policies with the Taliban unless clear security guarantees and enforcement mechanisms are provided;
3 - Foster strategic cooperation among regional powers to prevent Afghanistan from becoming “another Syria”;
4 - Intensify diplomatic pressure on Western powers at the UN and other international platforms to demand transparency in their support (or complicity) with terrorist groups;
5 - Strengthen and support political and military opposition to the Taliban Emirate, who may serve as a viable alternative in case of a sudden collapse of the regime.
