If this time the Russians err and rely on the Taliban and their allies, they will make a strategic mistake and their security will face serious challenges.
Author: Abdulnaser Nurzad, analyst
The Russian Federation faces two major challenges in Afghanistan: first, the resurrection of the chaotic geopolitical order of a US-led new world order with Afghanistan at its center in Asia; secondly, to destroy all the ideological foundations of the system on which the United States has maintained its policy in Asia for 20 years.
When you notice the desire of the US to have a warm presence in the region, you face two big problems:
First, this country, by its attack, will break the former regional geopolitical order and destroy the existing geopolitical situation. Second, the problem arises when the US wants to end its presence in the region, which will cause inevitable chaos.
You can see the same example at the beginning of America's presence in Afghanistan.
The geopolitical order left over from the remnants of the Soviet presence in the region was completely destroyed. The United States was able to destroy this order with the cooperation of the countries of Pakistan, the Black Sea and the Caspian, Transcaucasia, Eastern Europe, and even Russia. In addition, the US military presence increased the country's political and ideological influence in the region, which later raised fears in Russia, China, and Iran. Indeed, the deployment of troops in Afghanistan and Iraq has made the US the dominant power in Eurasia. Realizing this, Russia has its own concerns about the absence of the US today in Afghanistan and the region.
These fears are the result of the US presence in the region for twenty years.
The growth of extremism, drug trafficking, separatism, religious extremism, and multinational terrorism are the main indicators of this strategic concern of Russia in the region. Afghanistan, meanwhile, has become the center of gravity for these fears since the American withdrawal. The presence of the Taliban in power and their alliance with twenty international terrorist groups that threaten the security of the region and the whole world is a turning point in Russian security policy in Afghanistan. While Russia has had good relations with the Taliban and continues to protect its interests and citizens in Afghanistan with intelligence ties, the internal realities of Afghanistan and the problems with which the Taliban control their allied foreign terrorist groups require strong assurances that there will be no threat to interests Russia in Afghanistan and the region, this is another bitter message.
At the beginning of the American presence in Afghanistan, Russia gave the green light and continued to provide logistical support and security for this presence, but over time and confrontation with the US in other parts of the world, this policy has changed in nature and the intention of the Russians has changed against the Americans.
By deepening their relationship with the Taliban, the Russians wanted to gradually reduce the American presence in Afghanistan and left the US free to withdraw. The US has withdrawn from Afghanistan, and the Russians and Chinese have achieved their strategic goal. Now both the Chinese and the Russians have realized that an Afghanistan free of the US, after twenty years of military presence, is nothing but an Afghanistan descending into chaos. Al-Qaeda, the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks, was quickly defeated, but the Taliban that gave them sanctuary is still the most powerful force in the country and look likely to soon become an American-backed government in Kabul.
More worrisome is the growing presence of radicals called ISIS and other groups that have left Afghanistan's neighbors in deep concern after the departure of the United States and its allies. Because the Americans created the geopolitical order, which they were the guarantor of, but spoiled it with their unpredictable departure and made the Taliban and their allies - the main cause of the destabilization of the last 20 years - the winners of the game with military equipment, which is estimated at billions of dollars.
The Russians realized that it was no longer possible to enter into tactical interaction with the Taliban and defend their interests as before. Now, with political power in Afghanistan, the Taliban have become the masters of this country. This engagement must become a core policy based on a strategic vision of the future so that it can both serve Russia's long-term interests and aim to ensure that Afghanistan no longer poses a threat to Russia. This is also in space after the presence of Americans in the region.
Understanding this importance, the Russians are trying to make this policy more scientific, and their entire agenda, a comprehensive study of post-American Afghanistan, depends on extremist groups such as the Taliban and their terrorist allies. Post-American Afghanistan is a safe haven for terrorists whose only next goal is to challenge the security of the region of Central and South and West Asia.
In short, Afghanistan is now becoming a source of instability for the countries of Central Asia and Russia. Despite all its other aspects, over the past two decades, the presence of the Americans could not contain radical forces in Afghanistan and did not strengthen the authority of the authorities in Kabul, but this trend of increasing radicalism in Afghanistan, after the US withdrawal, is developing very quickly. As a result, cross-border radical groups such as ISIS, Islamic movements in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Arabs, and Chechens will have more freedom of action and will most likely turn Afghanistan into a springboard for the destabilization of Central Asia. This is the reality of bringing the Taliban into Afghanistan. The threat they pose to the countries of Central Asia and Russia's security could be a wake-up call for the entire region.
Russia has understood this problem and is trying to solve it primarily through cooperation with the Taliban, but does not forget about the necessary military preparations on the borders of Tajikistan and other Central Asian countries bordering Afghanistan. In addition to political engagement with the Taliban, Moscow has defensive and offensive military options on the table to prevent any danger posed by movements of terrorist groups in Afghanistan and is closely monitoring the situation. In addition, after years of American presence, Afghanistan has become a major producer of drugs that enter their main market, Russia, through Central Asia. After the withdrawal of the United States, this situation is unlikely to change. Drugs, like terrorism, have created a security problem for the entire Central Asian region.
And Russia has been fighting it for years and trying to prevent millions of young Russians from falling into this dangerous trap. The Taliban are not strong enough to establish their power throughout Afghanistan and provide the necessary security guarantees for Russia and other neighbors. That is, the Taliban, despite their terrorist nature, have become a bitter reality that cannot be ignored.
From the point of view of Russia and Central Asia, the Taliban will not cause problems as long as they operate within the borders of Afghanistan, do not harbor international radicals, and do not turn to drug trafficking. However, the basic realities say otherwise. Drugs are the main economic and financial source of the Taliban, and their alliance with other terrorist groups forms the basis of their military structure. So how can the Taliban destroy these two economic and military resources to satisfy Russia and other Afghan neighbors when a host of security threats, along with political threats, undermine the very power of the Taliban? Threats can turn into serious challenges to their regime.
But the Russians have predictions about this. Both Russia and the countries of Central Asia have sufficient resources to contain possible military and terrorist threats from within Afghanistan. These sources include the armed forces of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which border Afghanistan. The administration of this region is in charge of Russian military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and the Central Military District of Russia with headquarters in Yekaterinburg. Also, one should not forget about the armed forces and infrastructure of Kazakhstan. Coordination of these measures can be carried out within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, or at the level of bilateral relations. Efforts are also being made to cooperate with Turkmenistan, which has a long border with Afghanistan.
In the meantime, Russian intelligence agencies should play a more important role in relations with the countries of Central Asia, which have a common border with Afghanistan and there is a possibility of terrorists from their territory infiltrating into Russia. Their task should be to prevent the penetration of radicals (including those posing as refugees) from Afghanistan to Central Asia and from there to Russia, to stop the spread of extremist ideology, to combat drug trafficking through which terrorism is financed, to prevent terrorist attacks, etc.
The importance of intelligence services coordination within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization is no less than military coordination. Secretaries of the National Security Council of member states and their staffs should be in constant contact with each other - perhaps in a special format specifically dedicated to issues related to Afghanistan. The aggravation of the situation in Afghanistan will be a serious test for the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which must prove that this organization can guarantee the security of the region. This organization can be revived with new joint exercises, improved security coordination, and information sharing. Controlling the borders of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan with Afghanistan is crucial – after all, it is the first line of defense for Central Asia and Russia.
The success of Russia's policy in Afghanistan will depend on a quick understanding of the rapidly changing situation. There are some directions in this regard, but they need to be developed more. The Russians go out of their way to consider military preparations in addition to political measures. Therefore, they are well aware of what is needed for this work: military security actions and movements must be coordinated with political efforts. Because this policy, in fact, created the principle of balance in both policies and will give the Russians more opportunities in resolving the affairs of Afghanistan. But if the Russians err this time around and rely on the Taliban and their allies, they will make a strategic mistake and their security will be at serious risk.
