The War in Ukraine Will Spill Over into Afghanistan/Khorasan
Author: Hafiz Mansoor, politician and writer, one of the leaders of the Jamiat-e Islami party and the Afghanistan Resistance Front
Russia is slowly but steadily advancing toward Kyiv, the center of Ukraine. Contrary to expectations, Western assistance has failed to halt Russia’s advance, although it has slowed it down. Europe has lost hope of preserving Ukraine, and now only the United States is making efforts to preserve and strengthen the country.
According to some reports, a number of European countries are secretly seeking to establish relations with Russia and obtain security guarantees from it. In such a situation, the only option left for the United States is to open a new front in the eastern part of the former Soviet Union — namely, in Central Asia!
From a security perspective, the Central Asian republics are regarded as Russia’s “close allies,” and Moscow is by no means prepared to tolerate threats in this region. This is precisely why Russia currently maintains two well-equipped military formations in Central Asia, tasked with ensuring security and countering external threats.
Senior Russian military and security officials have long been drawing attention to this danger. More recently, they once again expressed concern over the presence of extremist groups in Afghanistan/Khorasan, while Russia’s defense minister reiterated that a threat emanates from Afghanistan/Khorasan.
Amid these concerns, Delta, an oil company belonging to Saudi Arabia, signed a contract with the Taliban in western Afghanistan, while the United Arab Emirates expressed interest in constructing a second line of the Salang Tunnel, which connects the north of the country with the south.
Such contracts cannot possibly be purely economic and commercial in nature, especially given that it is widely understood that, from a legal standpoint, the Taliban administration, due to its lack of international recognition, does not have the authority to conclude such agreements. Therefore, this is viewed as a security operation in which intelligence agencies have a stake even before investors enter the picture.
When Mr. Khalilzad’s presence is observed in such dealings, the likelihood that these transactions are security-related increases, since Zalmay Khalilzad’s professional background lends support to such an assumption.
It is reported that the United States intends to open a new front against Russia in Central Asia by strengthening and encouraging extremist groups in Afghanistan/Khorasan. Saudi Arabia is expected to provide the financing for this project, while Pakistan, which has a record of involvement in similar activities, is being considered as its executor. The question is whether such a program will be carried out with the consent of the Taliban movement or against its will.
The United States believes that the $40 million in weekly assistance made available to the Taliban can bring the Taliban movement into line and draw it into this program. If the Taliban movement agrees to participate, the activities of Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) will be suppressed, while the Taliban will receive greater assistance from the West but, at the same time, face opposition and hostility from neighboring countries. If the Taliban refuses, however, its administration would first have to be removed in order to create more favorable conditions for strengthening and equipping extremist groups linked to the Central Asian republics.
In such a situation, Russia has only two options. The first is to persuade the Taliban movement in Afghanistan/Khorasan to stop foreign fighters and prevent any threat to Central Asia from emerging from the territory of Afghanistan/Khorasan. But with what means and capabilities can Russia achieve this goal? Can it offer the Taliban an alternative to the $40 million provided by the United States? Can Russia provide them with the same benefits that the Taliban have been promised by Western allies?
The second option is for Russia to choose a less costly path and support anti-Taliban groups in the north of the country, enabling them to establish control over northern Afghanistan/Khorasan and create an impenetrable barrier protecting the Central Asian republics.
However, Russia will not be able to implement this option on its own either. Establishing such a barrier would require Russia to coordinate its efforts with regional allies such as China and Iran and jointly pursue this program.
In that case, anti-Taliban groups, which until now have lacked a firm and consistent backer, would have an opportunity to re-emerge. However, the confrontation between two global powers — the United States and its allies on one side, and Russia and its partners on the other — would once again turn Afghanistan/Khorasan into an arena of geopolitical rivalry and ultimately increase the risk of the country being fragmented into several parts.
