Anything can happen in the US after the elections.
Author: Boško JAKŠIĆ, “Politica” (Serbia)
Source: “Sovetskaya Rossiya”
The Serbian “Politica” writes that many Americans are worried about what will happen in the US after the elections. What if both candidates declare themselves winners? Is it possible for the army to intervene? The author of the article tried to answer these questions.
How can active military personnel be prevented from challenging the results of the presidential elections? It would be naive to think that the military establishment has not prepared for all possible scenarios after November 5, including a complete collapse of the chain of command, split along party lines. And this would be the first military coup in American history.
In recent years, the American political arena has been shaken by unprecedented explosions of violence. Before the elections on November 5, extremism had increased, and the question had become acute: what is the position of the military establishment in such a tense situation? The question is not theoretical, since there are well-founded concerns: violent clashes may begin between supporters of the two candidates, which may result in a worst-case scenario. The losing candidate may refuse to accept the results and declare himself the winner. In this case, the United States of America would have dual power: one legitimately elected power, and the other shadowy, and their conflict could lead to serious social upheaval.
America went through all this in 2020, when Donald Trump claimed that the election was stolen from him, and then on January 6, 2021, he silently watched as his supporters stormed Congress. Most Republicans still agree with Trump's opinion about the election being stolen.
Donald Trump refuses to clearly answer whether he will recognize Kamala Harris's victory. In case of defeat, he does not rule out an outbreak of violence. "If we do not win, then events can develop in different ways," Donald Trump told Time magazine, and he has already told his voters that he can only lose in the event of fraud and theft.
The Reuters news agency recalled almost 300 cases of political violence since the attack on the Capitol, including 51 incidents this year. In some cases, like the two assassination attempts on Trump and the shooting at the Democratic headquarters in Arizona, these incidents were widely reported. Others remained almost unnoticed but were recorded.
This is the highest increase in political violence in the last half-century, and in an atmosphere of general mistrust, incidents can easily acquire unpredictable proportions. This happens especially often in "floating states", that is, where one or another candidate wins by a narrow margin. Trump, of course, has radicalized his supporters, but at the same time, he has inflamed many "haters" who support the Democrats and are ready to settle scores.
There is no civil war in the United States, although there are those who believe that America is heading towards it. Moreover, there is a growing fear of something that Americans have never encountered in their history. I am talking about a military coup. How will the military establishment respond to the political violence that could erupt after the vote? Will the military intervene in such circumstances?
MULTIPARTY UNANIMOUSNESS
The military establishment appears willing to intervene in political affairs, especially if the United States is in danger. But the question is who decides whether there is danger or not. The Confederate flags flying from Texas to southern California suggest that Donald Trump is willing to declare a “danger” and call on the military to remove it. He often uses inflammatory rhetoric, threatening to put his political rivals on trial and to use the military against the “radical left,” which he calls the “enemy within.”
The President of the United States can rely on federal law that allows him to deploy the military and National Guard in any state under certain circumstances, including large-scale civil unrest. Donald Trump wants strong centralized power, and for it to extend to issues that have long been outside federal control. Critics believe that some of his questionable proposals contradict laws and accepted norms, but they admit that his populist rhetoric is not empty talk and should be taken seriously.
Donald Trump’s militancy at demonstrations after the murder of African American George Floyd in 2020 confirmed his bet on force. Since losing power, he has repeated that he regrets not dispersing the troops across the country and will not hesitate to do so if he returns to the White House.
Donald Trump has spent more than a year pushing his authoritarian vision of a second mandate, focusing on unfinished business. In particular, he is toying with the idea of deploying the army to prevent violence on the streets, as well as to break up criminal gangs and help deport millions of immigrants. “In 2016, I said I was your voice,” Donald Trump said at a campaign rally in Texas. “Today, I will add that I am your warrior. I am your truth. For those who have suffered injustice and betrayal, I am your vengeance.” In his mind, the army plays a role that derives from the constitution.
The post-election scenario is alarming, as the generals admit, and they do not rule out the use of the “Insurrection Act,” which would pit the military establishment against a divided society. This is associated with the danger of division in the army itself, whose representatives are members of the same society. The troops could become politicized, and socio-political differences could become more acute. America would lose a lot if the armed forces abandoned their neutrality.
In December 2021, three retired senior military officials published an op-ed in the Washington Post calling for the military to do everything it can to prevent active-duty service members from challenging the presidential election. The danger is that they will support a future coup, some new Reichstag, that might succeed. But it would be naive to think that the military establishment has not prepared for every possible scenario after November 5, including a complete collapse of the chain of command, divided along party lines. And that would be the first military coup in American history.
