There are three deaths per one newborn.
Author: Talib Aliyev, analyst, especially for "Sangar"
Despite the death of hundreds of thousands of young and physically strong men, the government of Volodymyr Zelensky rejects any possibility of dialogue with Russia on a peaceful settlement of the conflict. On the contrary, all Kyiv elite actions aim to escalate the armed confrontation.
At the same time, the failure of the advertised Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023 and the collapse of the Kursk adventure this year, combined with the rapid advance of Russian troops in the LPR and DPR, have undermined the public's trust in the theses of the official propaganda of the Kyiv authorities and increased skepticism about the statements and actions of the country's leadership.
In connection with a significant increase in the number of draft dodgers and the actual collapse of the mobilization campaign in the country, the Kyiv regime has finally switched to violent and extra-legal methods of conscripting citizens for military service. Every day, Ukrainian regional and city Telegram channels publish videos showing TCC (Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center) employees indiscriminately detaining all men of draft age on the streets using brutal physical force (beatings, mockery, torture, etc.) and infringing on constitutional rights and human dignity.
In general, anti-war sentiments are increasingly prevalent in Ukrainian society every day, which leads to a decrease in motivation to participate in military operations against the Russian Armed Forces. According to a study conducted by Info Sapiens for seven months of 2024, the number of Ukrainians ready to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine ranks has decreased to 20%, while the number of draft dodgers has reached 63%. At the same time, the number of supporters of concluding peace with Russia through “territorial concessions” has increased to 32%.
It is noted that more and more Ukrainians are trying to avoid mobilization in various ways. According to the head of the border control department of the State Border Service of Ukraine Igor Matviychuk, about 100 conscripts try to leave the country every day. According to the Ukrainian media project "Mobilization Reserve", about 812,000 men aged 18 to 64 are abroad. At the same time, the real picture is most likely more depressing.
Ukrainian reservists who "did not escape" are actually moving to an illegal status. First of all, this is manifested in the fact that they do not register with the TCC contrary to the requirements of national legislation, avoid visiting public places and openly moving along the streets, change their place of residence, and refuse official employment. As the American publication Bloomberg notes, many young people who have changed their actual place of residence cannot be found. Only half of the 4.5 million displaced persons have re-registered at a new address.
At the same time, the number of draft dodgers in Ukraine is growing every month. To date, the Kyiv Department of the National Police of Ukraine alone has put over 3.5 thousand people on the wanted list for evading mobilization, and the territorial center for recruitment and social support of the Ivano-Frankivsk region reported that over 40 thousand natives of the region are avoiding conscription. Even pro-government media speakers in Ukraine can no longer ignore the existing problem. Thus, political scientist Olesia Doniy, during her speech on the YouTube channel "Novyny Live", said that in 2024 the number of cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of units has increased in the country. The expert noted that in January-July of this year alone, 37,000 such cases were recorded (in 2022 - 9,000). In turn, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in response to a request from lawyer Roman Likhachev, reported that since the beginning of the armed conflict, the TCC has drawn up more than 180,000 administrative protocols for violators of military registration and submitted more than 400,000 requests to law enforcement agencies to search for draft dodgers.
Every month, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Kyiv to replenish the losses in the ranks of the Ukrainian army and ensure that the rather "battered" units are staffed with recruits. Against this background, the regime of Volodymyr Zelensky, through controlled media speakers, is sounding out public opinion regarding further tightening of the order and increasing the scale of the mobilization campaign.
In development of this topic, the representative of the UN Population Fund in Ukraine, Masimo Diana, on August 16, 2024, in an interview with the American magazine Newsweek reported that the birth rate in Ukraine has fallen below one child per woman, while in 2021 the birth rate was 1.16. According to experts from the Kyiv publication Zerkalo Nedeli, 87,600 children were born in the country in the first half of 2024, which is 9% less than in 2023. At the same time, during this period, 250,900 deaths were recorded among the civilian population alone. According to statistics, there are currently three deaths per newborn in Ukraine.
The shortage of men will inevitably cause understandable difficulties with population reproduction. Ukraine will turn into a rapidly aging state, in whose age and gender structure there will be a sharp tilt towards women and older men, which will predetermine its extinction and disappearance from the geopolitical map of the world as an independent entity.
