The construction of this canal comes with two main risks: one is regional tensions between Afghanistan and neighboring Central Asian countries, and the other is the Pashtunization of the north with the Pashtuns of southern Afghanistan and northern Pakistan.
Author: Dr. Mohammad Bakhtariyan, an expert on Afghanistan, and one of the leaders of the Movement for the Right of Self-Determination.
In the beginning, it is better to learn about the Qoshteppa channel using the media.
The Qoshteppa irrigation canal irrigates the dry plains and turns northern Afghanistan into a green oasis. Meanwhile, according to the plans of the Taliban, it is suitable for the movement of Afghan and Pakistani Pashtun naqils to the north, which causes damage to the indigenous population.
(Explanation: Naqils - conventionally “displaced” are Pashtuns from southern Afghanistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, and even India, who have been moved by the Pashtun leadership of Afghanistan for more than 100 years to the lands of northern Afghanistan, where non-Pashtuns live - Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Turkmens, and others. The Pashtun rulers took land from the local non-Pashtun population and gave it to the Pashtuns).
The British magazine The Economist wrote in an article published on Friday, February 17, that the Qoshteppa Canal in northern Afghanistan, which is being completed by the Taliban, could lead to regional conflicts.
The Qoshteppa Canal was designed about 50 years ago during the reign of Mohammad Davudkhan (1973-1978) but was not implemented during this period due to war and instability in Afghanistan. During the 20 years of rule of the republic, the Taliban, who were a big obstacle to economic projects, are now trying to implement this project.
The Qoshteppa canal diverts the waters of the Amu River to parts of the provinces of Balkh, Jawzjan, and Faryab, which will irrigate about 700,000 hectares of currently unsuitable land along the 285-kilometer route of this canal.
This channel is 150 meters wide and 8 meters deep. The Qoshteppa Canal starts from the Kaldar region in Balkh province and reaches the Andkhoy region in Faryab, passing through the plains of Hairatan, Davlatabad, and Aqcha.
Work on finalizing the first part of this channel, which is 100 km, continues, and according to the Taliban, this part will be completed in the near future (in June of this year). The first part of this channel will cost $91 million, which the Taliban say is financed by domestic revenues.
About 5,000 people are working on constructing this canal, and 3,300 units of construction equipment are involved.
According to an Economist article, global warming and drought in Central Asia have made access to water a major problem, and digging a canal in northern Afghanistan that pumps 650 cubic meters of water per second from the Amu Darya River to Afghanistan's agricultural fields could lead to regional conflicts (Turkmenistan (75%) and Uzbekistan (65%) get most of their needs from the water of the Amu Darya).
With the water of the Qoshteppa Canal, the plains in the north will turn green, and a suitable platform for the naqils of the Pakistani Pashtuns will be spread in the fertile regions of the north of our Talibanized land, which will be a great tragedy.
(Sangar: According to various sources, modern settlements will be built on both sides of the Qoshteppa Canal, and up to 3 million Pashtuns from southern Afghanistan and Pakhtunkhwa province in northern Pakistan will be settled there. These are the same people who live by tribal laws and form the main force of global terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda and IS-Wilayat Khorasan. According to other sources, foreign terrorists will also be placed in these settlements. And according to the plan, this territory should turn into a "state within a state" for terrorists, who in the future should extend their influence to the countries of Central Asia. A kind of new "terrorist Israel". The project is funded by the US and Pakistan, and executed by the Taliban. An agreement between them was reached last year in Islamabad).
PLANS TO PREVENT PASHTUNIZATION IN THE NORTH
According to research, there are two types of concerns about the Qoshteppa Canal, one related to regional tensions between Afghanistan and neighboring Central Asian countries, and the other related to the movement of Pakistani and Afghan Pashtuns to northern non-Pashtun regions.
There are now several prevention plans among non-Pashtun ethnic groups (Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks, Turkmens, etc.). We have to check which one is useful and effective in preventing naqilization or pushtunization.
1 - Programs within Afghanistan
A - Inclusive government with the Taliban: this is the plan of the US and almost the whole world. This is also welcomed by the politicians of the Republican period. A plan that the Taliban have not yet adopted.
Question: Is it useful for preventing Pashtunization?
Answer: If a representative government is established, it will be exactly the same as the government of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. This means that there will again be someone with the surname "zai" at the top. Under the administrations of Karzai and Ahmadzai, most of the naqils were arranged in Herat and even in the northern provinces. It was a big plan to send nomads to fight against other ethnic groups and thereby destabilize the non-Pashtun areas, which is exactly what happened. Thus, an inclusive government is a Naqil-Pashtun government.
B - Decentralized government: program of the National Resistance Front. This program may include a Tajik prime minister and a Pashtun president. Like a French model. The president has the power to dissolve parliament and thus control or appoint the prime minister. Therefore, it will not be very different from inclusive participatory government.
Conclusion: pashtunisation will not be a problem for inclusive governance. Buying ethnic leaders - traitors to other ethnic groups, of which there are many - like the parliament of a twenty-year-old republic - the Pashtun president buys everyone and makes the prime minister and parliament incompetent. They themselves approve plans for pashtunization. In the end, they - the leaders declare themselves Pashtunized Tajiks. So this government itself will be a Naqil-Pashtun government.
B - Democratic federal government: whether you like it or not, the federal government in this country will be ethnic-territorial. Under the dominance of the theory of federalism, the federal states will have the police force, and the army will be at the national level. According to historical experience, the army and its command will be at the disposal of the Pashtuns.
Conclusion: It looks like the Pashtun-led federal government will not leave the federal states democratic and free, and they will accept his Pashtunization programs under pressure from the army.
2 - Programs outside of Afghanistan
A - The Centralized State of Khorasan: The idea and plan are that the Khorasan peoples (non-Pashtuns) will unite to take power by force, similar to the government of Amir Habibullah Kalakani and the government of Ustad Rabbani. Then they govern the whole country like centralized Pashtun governments.
Conclusion: if such a government is formed, it can prevent the displacement of the naqils in the first stage and cancel the Pashtunization project in the second stage. This means moving other ethnic groups to Pashtun areas. Thus, the burden of naqils will be transferred to areas inhabited by Pashtuns.
B - Formation of an independent government of the Persian-speaking and allied peoples (Bakhtariyan country):
In this case, Afghanistan will be divided into two Pashtun and non-Pashtun countries based on a map that clearly defines its borders.
Conclusion: This government must categorically break with the Pashtun government. Against them, a large wall like the Zulkarnain Wall should be built with a strong army. Pashtuns should go and mend their relations and life with Pakistan so that this government can permanently ban Pashtunization.
AFTERWORD
The truth is that all these plans are just plans for now. None of them has a real face. Each turns out to be more difficult than the other.
Is there a short-term way to prevent Pashtunization or Naqilization?
In this case, the slogan "What will not belong to me should not belong to another" should be adopted.
In this case, you need to do a few things:
1 - Based on guerrilla warfare methods, projects like Qoshteppa should be sabotaged. These plans cannot be allowed to be implemented, especially since they have not been implemented in these fifty years.
2- One should focus on the old and new Naqil-Pashtuns. They must not be left alone. In this case, the naqils will be forced to migrate and retreat on their own, as in the periods of jihad, resistance, and the beginning of the republic.
