This is a strategic choice for the people of Afghanistan.
Author: Samir Badrud, Analyst (Afghanistan)
In today’s political environment of Afghanistan, one serious question must be raised:
In the confrontation between Pakistan and the Taliban, which choice is more reasonable for Afghanistan?
To answer this question, one must distance oneself from emotions and look at the realities.
1 - Pakistan
Pakistan is a neighbor of Afghanistan; not just an ordinary neighbor, but a country that has played a role in Afghanistan’s development for decades. Relations between the two countries have been tense from the very beginning. Afghanistan was the only country that voted against Pakistan’s membership in the United Nations. Since the premiership of Sardar Daoud Khan, the issue of "Lar and Bar" (the Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line) and Pashtunistan has questioned Pakistan’s territorial integrity.
In response, Pakistan has also for many years supported insurgency against the Afghan governments, from backing jihadist groups in the 1980s to extensive support for the Taliban. However, this story has not been one-sided. Afghanistan, at times, has also supported certain anti-Pakistan movements, especially Pashtun and Baloch nationalists.
Nevertheless, one reality never changes — geography.
Pakistan is Afghanistan’s largest neighbor. The longest border of Afghanistan is with Pakistan. Afghanistan’s nearest seaport is located in Pakistan. Cultural and human ties between the two countries are extensive.
In terms of power, the balance is also clear. Pakistan is a nuclear power with a population several times larger than Afghanistan’s and a well-established diplomatic apparatus. Afghanistan today is in political isolation and structural weakness.
Despite all differences, if a responsible and accountable government emerges in Afghanistan, there is significant potential for trade, transit, and regional cooperation between the two countries — a potential that could benefit both nations.
2 - The Taliban
On the other side are the Taliban.
The Taliban are an insurgent, extremist, and backward group that overthrew Afghanistan’s republican system — the result of the people’s efforts and sacrifices — and replaced it with an “Islamic Emirate.”
This is a system that is accountable neither to the people, nor to the law, nor to the international community.
The constitution was abolished. State institutions collapsed. The republican flag was lowered.
In Taliban ideology, women do not have the right to education, work, or participation in social and political life.
According to United Nations reports, more than 22 terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda and TTP, are present in Afghanistan under Taliban rule.
The country’s economy is in free fall. Natural resources are being irresponsibly plundered. The peoples of Afghanistan have been deprived of participation in power.
Simply put, the Taliban Emirate is nothing more than clerical rule, administrative incompetence, and a historical regression.
3 - Pakistan–Taliban Confrontation
Today, Pakistan and the Taliban are effectively in confrontation.
The reason is clear: the Taliban’s support for Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Militarily, Pakistan has a clear advantage. In response, the Taliban resort to border attacks, suicide operations, and scattered actions.
4 - Two Scenarios
If we look at this confrontation realistically, there are two possible scenarios.
First scenario: Taliban victory
In this case, the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan will be consolidated. Extremism in the region will expand, and instability will spread to Pakistan and beyond — to South and Central Asia.
Second scenario: Pakistan victory
In this case, the Taliban’s rule will weaken or collapse. The people of Afghanistan may once again get the opportunity to create a responsible and humane political order and live with their neighbors based on good neighborliness.
5 - Conclusion
The final judgment is yours.
Should one support the Taliban or the war against them?
This choice ultimately depends on the level of rationality in politics and the ability to move beyond ethnic emotions.
In my view, war against the Taliban — despite all its bitterness — is a “lesser evil.”
However, supporting the Taliban will undoubtedly be the worst possible choice for Afghanistan’s future.
