Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah will come out of the shadows: the US wants to extend the 10-year security agreement with Afghanistan
Author: Andrey Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics (Russia)
Another intrigue seems to be unfolding around Afghanistan, in which not only the last Afghan president, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani but also the last head of the executive branch of the republican government, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, may take part.
As several sources reported, representatives of the United States, Pakistan, Turkey, the UAE, and Qatar are allegedly discussing on unofficial platforms the idea of prolonging the security agreement concluded at the end of September 2014 between the United States and the government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA).
This agreement was designed for 10 years with the possibility of further extension. It regulates the legal basis for the permanent US military presence in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the Western continent from this country.
We are talking about almost 10 thousand American soldiers who, following the September security agreement, have the right to be stationed in Afghanistan to fight international terrorism.
Although the republic’s regime collapsed in August 2021 and US and NATO forces left Afghanistan, the security treaty was not denounced and is still in force.
This means that, in principle, at any moment a 10,000-strong American contingent can be transferred to the territory of Afghanistan, which will be in this country on full legal grounds.
According to sources, in Washington and several countries in the region, there is an interest in maintaining a working legal framework for the continued American presence in Afghanistan (what if it comes in handy one day?). Therefore, there is a need to extend the security agreement for another 10 years, which formally expires in three months.
Allegedly, in this regard, in September 2024, in Pakistan, it is planned to assemble an almost complete government of republican Afghanistan, headed by President Ghani and Dr. Abdullah. Supposedly members of this government will take part in the ceremony of prolonging the security treaty of September 30, 2014.
The Taliban, who have not received international recognition, are unable to prevent this ceremony. Moreover, the Taliban’s failure to comply with a number of provisions of the Doha deal with the United States of February 2020, and the lack of real achievements of the Taliban government in the fight against ISIS and drug production, may become a reason for the extension of the security agreement between the IRA and the United States, which will probably be done in September this year in Pakistan.
It is difficult to say how feasible this scenario will be in practice. However, there are good reasons to believe that an attempt to extend the 2014 security treaty may in fact be undertaken.
This, of course, does not mean that soon after this a 10,000-strong group of US troops will appear in Afghanistan. However, if necessary, in the future, Washington will have legal grounds for such a demarche. With which we can “congratulate” Russia, China, Iran, and other countries in the region.
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