At one closed meeting, the defense minister of the self-proclaimed Taliban administration, Mullah Yaqub, said they were doing everything to get the Iranians to fight, but the Iranians are smart and avoid war.
Author: Rustam Rushangar, analyst, especially for "Sangar"
Iran's position on the water issue of the Hirmand (Helmand) River is becoming more serious every day. Serious and warning messages to the Taliban have been constantly sent both from the representative of the leader of the Islamic Revolution and the ambassador, the foreign minister, and the president of Iran over the past week. Such a volume and scale of a quick and uninterrupted position in a short period of time is unprecedented in the international relations of countries. This language is the language of war. In fact, Iran is directly calling the Taliban to war.
A few days ago, a video circulated on social networks in which the defense minister of the self-proclaimed Taliban administration, Mullah Yaqub, allegedly said in a closed meeting that they are doing everything to make the Iranians fight, but they are bright and avoid war.
According to these rumors, the two countries are on the way to war.
As for Iran, the water issue in this country is one of the topics related to national security. Iran considers the war for water as part of its efforts to ensure its national security and is ready to fight for water supply.
Another point is Iran's fear of popular uprisings in Sistan and Balochistan. This region is of the Sunni faith, and separatist tendencies are alive there ethnically. It is also a matter of Iranian national security and territorial integrity and is considered a red line. The lack of water in Sistan and Balochistan has angered people and made them resent the government, and in the last two months, people have begun serious protests. In fact, the people of Sistan and Balochistan accuse the Iranian government of neglecting their basic needs, and at present the focus of criticism is mainly directed against the Iranian government. The Iranian government is compelled to pay attention to these requests. One conclusion, however, is that the Iranian authorities want to send a signal to the people of Sistan and Balochistan by blaming the Sunni Taliban for the water problem, that your Sunni brothers are the cause of your thirst. This message can mobilize the people of this region against the Taliban, side with the Iranian government, or at least convince them that the Iranian government has gone to the limit of war to supply them with water.
In other words, the Iranian government is forced to take serious measures both to meet the needs of the people for water and to suppress the separatist sentiments of the Baloch.
Meanwhile, Iran interprets the adventurous behavior of the Taliban as if America is behind these adventures, and dictates to the Taliban to start a war with Iran. This conclusion is not incorrect. However, in order to prevent tension and conflict, Iran tried to satisfy the Taliban by making some concessions and using the so-called path of appeasement and mitigation. But this approach made the Taliban bolder and led them to the conclusion that Iran is afraid of us, and therefore the more we push, the more they will make concessions. In fact, the opposite result of easing on the Taliban could cause an immediate turn in Iran's policy and suddenly push the Iranians that enough easing is enough, it's time to put the Taliban in their place by force.
But as far as the Taliban is concerned, this group does not hesitate to fight Iran. There are several reasons for this: 1 - The Taliban is basically a fighting force and they are built for war, they live with war and die without war; 2 - The Taliban need money for the survival of their government, and whoever gives the money, they are even ready to fight; 3 - The Taliban believes that they have nothing to lose in the war, and for example, Iran does not fight because it has something to lose: 4 - The Taliban is a military project and the US does give money to this group to create tension in the region; 5 - The Taliban have strong religious and ethnic motives for war with Iran. The Taliban consider Iran to be a supporter of the Persian speakers in Afghanistan, and consider the Shia religion to be tantamount to blasphemy.
Therefore, it seems that both sides have good reasons for war, and the possibility of war should be taken seriously. Especially if we connect this issue with the war in Ukraine, as a result of which international relations have undergone a profound transformation, and the political map of the world is subject to possible serious changes. Iran sided with Russia in the war in Ukraine, and this forced the US and its allies to put the issue of regime change or the collapse of Iran on the agenda.
A low-cost solution for Iran is to support the Afghan popular forces, fed up with the brutality of the Taliban. Taliban must be overthrown, a people's government must be established, and both sides must solve the water problem in an atmosphere of friendly dialogue.
