Both will act based on the strategic interests of the United States.
Author: Ahmad Saidi, Afghanistan and regional analyst (Switzerland), especially for "Sangar"
The US presidential election will be held today.
Some friends asked: if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the US presidential election, what do you think their policy towards Afghanistan will be?
In my opinion, if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the US election, their policies towards the Taliban and Afghanistan may differ, but both will act based on the interests of the US strategy.
1) Donald Trump's possible policy
If Trump wins the election, he may adopt a tougher policy towards the Taliban. During his first term, Trump signed an agreement with the Taliban through Zalmai Khalilzad, according to which the US troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan. But he has always mistrusted the Taliban and has stressed that if they do not fulfill the agreement, he will give the Taliban a tough response. If Donald Trump returns to power, he may take a tougher stance on the Taliban and put more diplomatic and economic pressure on the Taliban.
2) Kamala Harris's possible policy
If Harris wins, she will most likely continue Joe Biden's policy on Afghanistan and the Taliban. She has also supported the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and stressed that a long-term war is no longer in the interests of the United States. Harris will be more willing to put diplomatic and economic pressure on the Taliban to encourage this group to respect human rights, especially the rights of women and minorities.
Harris's policy will likely continue to focus on preventing direct military intervention in Afghanistan, while Trump's policy will not, and will focus more on finding diplomatic avenues and cooperation with countries in the region.
Overall, both sides are likely to use some economic and diplomatic pressure on the Taliban, but there will be slight differences in the methods and tone of that pressure. Trump will be more serious, while Harris, if successful, will pursue a softer policy.