Moscow will not sign a half-baked deal, realizing that the US is turning from a global to a regional giant.
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitics Researcher, specially for Sangar
Leaked documents of Trump's peace plan to end the war in Ukraine show that the plan would be implemented in exchange for a win-win agreement with Russia and security guarantees for the country. The plan consists of three parts that could satisfy Russia by ending the war in Ukraine, which has turned into a full-scale, almost continental conflict. Among the points contained in the plan is the idea of delaying Ukraine's membership in NATO for twenty years, declaring a demilitarized zone of 1,300 kilometers along the current front lines, which would be guarded by military forces of European countries, as well as Washington's long-term armed support for Kyiv.
Donald Trump has repeatedly said that he will end the war within "24 hours." However, since the Ukraine issue is a complex discussion with various aspects and involves many parties, implementing this Trump plan seems somewhat difficult and impossible. However, if Russia's proposals and demands regarding Ukraine's non-joining NATO, non-expansion of NATO to the east, and the provision of security guarantees to maintain the red lines of resources and boundaries of Russia's national security interests in the region, any agreement can be implemented. The heavy burden of the war and the number of casualties on both sides have turned this war into a war of attrition and made both sides unable to continue this war and maintain it.
It should be noted that Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory in the south and east. With Russia's conquest of eastern Ukraine, the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics have become islands of power separated from Kyiv's control, and this may legally become a source of tension in Russia's relations with Kyiv in the future.
The fact that Washington will ask its European allies to send their troops to this region shows that Washington's isolationist policy in the most remote parts of the world, leaving the costs and responsibility to the allies of this country, is a fundamental principle of this country's foreign policy. This is in direct contrast to the policy of the current US President Joe Biden, who is expected to hand over power to Donald Trump on January 20 next year.
Analysts present a new round of Washington's policy of refusing or transferring responsibility, which is based on the Truman Doctrine, based on American liberal internationalism, and a sense of US responsibility to contribute to global peace and stability. If in the early 2000s, the United States was inclined to long wars, such as the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, conducting limited military missions in Libya and Syria, and intervening in the "Arab Spring" process, then currently the weakening of the hegemony and military-political presence of the United States in the world means an increasing role of China in the world. In this regard, the Asian axis will try to fill the space of Washington in the complex security and political equations.
However, Washington and Moscow may come to an understanding on the implementation of the provisions of this agreement, but the main question is whether Kyiv is ready to divide its territory between East and West and achieve this peace agreement. This is due to the fact that this proposal is only one of the ideas of the Trump team, and the president-elect is inclined to make important political decisions immediately.
Two of Trump's advisers, retired generals Keith Clagg and Fred Flitz, proposed in June to freeze military aid to Ukraine if the country does not agree to hold peace talks with Russia. On the other hand, Washington, in implementing this plan, which includes even more warnings to Russia that if the conditions for a ceasefire are rejected, the United States will increase its military support for Ukraine.
This initiative puts Russia in a difficult position. Moscow, understanding the complex and fragile international situation and especially the transformation of the United States from a global hegemon to a regional hegemon, does not want to sign a raw deal. In fact, with this plan and in exchange for a peace agreement, Trump wants to completely remove the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO for an interim period and stop the war in Ukraine to comply with security guarantees.
It is worth noting that Ukraine has applied for NATO membership in 2022, but has not yet received an invitation to join this organization from its members. Many think that Trump's arrival in the White House will change all the usual foundations of international interactions and security campaigns belonging to the United States of America, and international order and security will change.