A brief analysis of Vladimir Putin's one-day trip to the Middle East
Author: Ghaus Janbaz, political scientist and former diplomat of Afghanistan
President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, December 6, visited two Gulf countries: the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. According to Putin himself, his trip to the United Arab Emirates was planned. Amid preparations for a trip to the UAE, the leadership of Saudi Arabia invited him to take advantage of the opportunity and geographical proximity to visit Riyadh. And he gave a positive answer to this request.
This is Vladimir Putin's first visit since the outbreak of hostilities in eastern Ukraine on February 22, 2022. Previously, during this period, Putin made trips mainly to the countries of the former USSR, China, and Iran. China and Iran are considered close allies of Russia now.
Putin's trip to the Middle East served at least two important purposes:
1 - Consolidation of relations within the OPEC+ economic union;
2 - Demonstration of Russia’s “soft” and “hard” forces in the region and beyond.
During this lightning-fast journey, Putin somehow attempted to stabilize the transformation of geopolitical stability from the West to the Greater East, as well as to maximize Russian influence in this critical region.
The Middle East is not only an area where vast oil and gas reserves are located, blessed by the current civilization. This region is actually one of the centers, or rather, an important logistics crossroads through which narrow and vital arteries pass through a large part of the world and connects three continents - Asia, Africa, and Europe.
For example, the Strait of Hormuz transports a significant amount of oil exports around the world, with more than 80 percent of goods transported between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal. A quarter (1/4) of commercial oil exports and 8 percent of liquefied natural gas transportation originate from this region.
Currently, the economies of Russia, Europe, China, as well as India are vital to ensuring security in the Middle East and the regular passage of ships through the Suez Canal.
On the other hand, the United States' need for access to natural resources and cargo ships to transport goods through the region is less than that of other powerful countries. For this reason, Washington is constantly trying to keep the flames of war between the countries of the region fresh.
Putin's visit to the Middle East region shows that Russia is adding more dynamism to its plans for the region's political agenda and beyond, making its role in regional interactions more prominent than in the last two years.
Over the past two years, it seemed that Russia had become completely self-absorbed in the conflict in Ukraine and would be busy with getting out of the Ukrainian crisis with all its resources. However, the development shows that the changed situation and conflict in Ukraine, although very important, are no longer at the top of Russian foreign policy priorities.
Another important part of Putin's current trip to the Middle East is the discussion of the war between Israel and Palestine. Moscow will try to use the position of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to take the initiative to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian crisis and present new serious proposals in this regard.
Thus, Russia will try, in addition to ensuring and strengthening economic relations with important countries in the region, to play the role of mediator in resolving a serious regional crisis, and will continue to remain an important and indispensable supporter of the “Global South”, which opposes the West.
Vladimir Putin's speech at the recent G20 meeting of heads of state shows that Russia is determined to continue to act decisively and seriously in its regional and extra-regional positions.
At the G-20 summit, Putin stressed that he wants to play the role of the Gaza people's main supporter in the fight against Israeli attacks. In his statement, Putin pointed out the double standards that the West constantly uses in its policies, which was welcomed in most countries.
For Vladimir Putin, whose government now maintains allied relations with Iran, it is still very important to play the role of a good mediator and third party, as close as possible to Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the one hand and Iran on the other. The proximity of the three countries of the region (Iran-Saudi Arabia-UAE) with the strong inclusion of the Russian Federation provides the basis for the implementation of further coordinated and effective measures, programs, and plans at the regional level.
On Thursday, December 7, immediately after returning from Saudi Arabia, Putin met with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi at the Kremlin Palace. According to our information, Ibrahim Raisi offered Vladimir Putin a package of anti-Western proposals and measures, which he is expected to implement in agreement with Moscow.
Moscow and Tehran are determined to take a series of coordinated measures to persuade the United States and other Western countries to be more flexible. Moscow and Tehran intend to make it clear to Western countries that sanctions pressure has not brought any results and the West should use a flexible and short-term policy, including the Ukrainian issue and respect for Iran’s interests in the Middle East. According to Russia and Iran, the West moving away from its current stubborn positions and showing flexibility will be the best way to break the military-political impasse in which the United States and its Western allies find themselves.
The near future will show how far Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can go in their closeness and support of Russia and Iran. There is no doubt that these countries’ support for Moscow’s policy will strengthen the positions of Russia and Iran in the region and give it more quality and efficiency.
The United States, in turn, expects the UAE and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production and support Washington’s position on this issue.
Before the new war between Israel and Palestine in the Gaza Strip, increasing oil production was a large part of the deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. If this deal were to take place, the economic interests of Russia and Iran would be greatly damaged. The outbreak of war on October 7 stopped this deal.
Israel's new war in the Palestinian territories gives Russia and Iran time to balance the volumes of production and export of fuel materials, taking into account the interests of other key players.
Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have improved as a result of behind-the-scenes efforts and the intervention of Chinese diplomacy, and the outbreak of Israel's war in the Gaza Strip even forced the Saudi crown prince to engage in a telephone conversation with Ibrahim Raisi, the Iranian president.
All these events and military-political trends give Russia time to become an important and decisive player in this field and show that maintaining and continuing contacts with Russia is very important and it is impossible to isolate it.
Vladimir Putin's trip to the Middle East is an important and clear alarm for Russia's enemies, and it could mean the following:
“I exist and I can return!”
Note: Annual trade turnover between Russia and the United Arab Emirates is approaching 9 billion, and with Saudi Arabia - about 1.5 billion US dollars.
